The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

The Rescue You Didn’t Expectations

Rakaan Kayali

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The Rescue You Didn’t Expect

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Market Recovery: What’s Driving It?
  • Tesla, Gold & Crypto Performance
  • Dogecoin ETF Approval: Latest Updates
  • Hims & Hers Stock Skyrockets – What’s Next?
  • Bitcoin Price & Key Indicators to Watch
  • Final Thoughts & Q&A


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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Let me adjust this a bit. Thanks for staying up. Today is Thursday, February And we did get a recovery in the market. I'm going to say the main culprit here is the yield on the ten year. And this is something that not many people were paying attention to, which is the increased fiscal responsibility could actually make investors more bullish on US debt and that will bring down the yields on that debt and should help risk assets a lot. We did see a green day for all major indices today. This is the day after a hotter than expected CPI print on a Thursday. And so it's not really expected. It's actually quite welcome to see as an investor. There's a lot of resilience in the market. Kind of tells you that some of that hot print was already priced in, but also there are other catalysts that are keeping the market healthy. And really, when you look at monetary policy and its impact on the stock market, you really don't want to have a stock market that is basically beholden to monetary policy, to interest rates. It's much more preferable if the stock market is being held up by actual earnings or actual fundamentals. And that's how you have basically a resilient stock market, a resilient investing world broadly is if it's held up by fundamentals and not by levels of interest rates. And so I think it's welcome to see that despite the interest rate cut probability not being that high anytime soon, the markets are still holding up. So with that being said, looking at some of the names that we like to look at, Tesla is up close to six percent today. Iris managed to eke out a small win today. Bitdeer was up two percent. Looking at gold, it continues to move higher, really. We're now at twenty nine hundred. I zoom out here because this will tell you what we've been doing a year to date. We started the year close to twenty six hundred. We're now at twenty nine hundred. And based on how things are going, we may be at three thousand sooner than many think. Bitcoin held up pretty resiliently today at ninety six thousand. Again, this is an asset that is very influenced by monetary policy, liquidity. And yet, despite the real drop in probabilities for a rate cut anytime soon, it's been quite resilient. Same with Dogecoin. Solana is at one ninety four. So I actually saw Hamid. I saw your question before I went live. And so I pulled up the lithium chart. Lithium has asking about lithium and when the price will recover. So We have seen a bit of a recovery since, you know, the November, let's say, October lows. We were at seventy two hundred. Now we're at seventy six hundred. Not anything to write home about. I'm sorry, seventy two thousand. Now we're at seventy six thousand. But that being said, I do think that, you know, Albert Marley, one of the largest lithium producers in the world, recently mentioned that most producers are actually not making money at current prices and it's just not sustainable. I've seen conflicting studies on whether or not the recovery in lithium is going to happen in, you know, twenty twenty five versus twenty twenty six. But there does seem to be consensus that will happen in the next twelve to twenty four months. And specifically with our play, I think that there are catalysts in the form of the merger that's coming up and some other dynamics that are favorable for the company. So I think that right now it seems... I'm actually tempted to buy some, but there are just so many other opportunities with more predictable catalysts. But for now, I think holding is the right decision. All right, going back to... the market and what happened today. The Dow closed more than three hundred points higher as Trump holds off on imposing new tariffs. So we did get the PPI numbers today and the PPI numbers were So the actual was a point four. If you're looking at the month over month, the forecast, it was point three. So there were hotter than expected. And yet still there's resilience in the market. And, um, you know, we didn't really get a big pullback because there are other factors influencing the asset prices. now as it relates to president trump you may have heard signed a presidential memorandum to examine reciprocal tariffs on foreign nations so you know you put a tariff we're going to put the exact same tariff and so you know many investors may have been concerned about inflation and that could come from this I did see a pretty pretty good insight about this topic on x so I ran the math on the gain our country could theoretically make by imposing reciprocal tariffs, and he lists out the different countries with the current difference in the trade tariffs that are imposed. And in case that these differences are reconciled, what would be the net gain for the country? And the gain at the reciprocal rate for the United States would be around seventeen billion, which seems like a large number, but it's actually a drop in the bucket when you consider And the country is running a two trillion dollar deficit every year. So seventeen billion is not really going to do anything to anyone. So I don't really think that's a source of concern for prices moving forward. And that's probably why the market kind of shrugged it off today. The sort of unexpected savior for the market. Maybe, as I mentioned earlier in the live, is the fiscal responsibility that comes from something like Doge cutting back on expenses that the US government is incurring, becoming more efficient and increased confidence in the US debt and the US currency Causing the yields on us that to come down, making risk assets more attractive in comparison. Uh, Elon Musk, although I'm not a fan of his anymore, I used to be, uh, but he's recently gone quite crazy with some of the things that he said. I'm fortunate to see, but who cares? Um, yeah, people. You know, our hearts, our hearts, you know, can change from one day to the next. And oftentimes what we see now is what was, you know, concealed in the past and perhaps it existed all the time. But so here's Elon Musk saying, as it becomes clear that Doge is working, you will see the long term Treasury bill deal fall and all Americans will benefit from lower interest payments on mortgages, small business debt, credit cards and other loans. I believe this is true. The question is, will Doge make enough of a dent for this to happen? So this is something that I think is hitting the market's radar. And you're certainly seeing a recovery in the U.S. ten-year treasury yield, which is very good for markets. Obviously, if we can get to something like where we were In September of last year, then look out. We could get something really strong in the market. Checking in on Bitcoin. It's been a while since I've told you guys, you know, some or checked in on some of the major indicators that I like to look at. So if you look at the pie cycle indicator, which looks at the two times the three hundred and fifty day moving average and. for a top and then the hundred eleven day moving average for a bottom that's at eighty three thousand as a bottom and one hundred and thirty seven thousand as a top for bitcoin as of recent and when you look at doge etf approval another token that we're interested in doge etf approval in twenty twenty five continues, the approval odds continues to go from one step to a higher one. And now we're at a sixty five percent chance of an approval in twenty twenty five, which I think would be huge for Doge. And it only needs to bring in a fraction of the inflows that something like Bitcoin brought in for it to experience a similar appreciation and value considering the market cap that it has. One stock that I would be remiss not to mention is Hims and Hers. I understand I bought Hims and Hers last year for our PIF portfolio. I sold it around twenty five, I believe. I think we were close to I think we bought in the low teens, we sold at around twenty five. But now it's at fifty nine. So, you know, I understand a lot of members may be. Upset about this. Despite that, we did book some games. And I am not immune to such feelings, but I do believe that we did the right thing. At least I did the right thing as per my conscience and. What I'm comfortable with versus what I'm not comfortable with and. I've mentioned before hims and hers is a company that the marketing for this company kind of rubbed me the wrong way, kind of has a certain flavor to it, certain vibe to it. That is, if you get my drift, that is not really, you know, how that conscious, not something that I want to be asked about on the day of judgment. So, um, That being said, I understand the appeal. I do think that, you know, right now at a PE ratio of one hundred and thirty six, there's probably better opportunities out there. Or at least opportunities that have, you know, better risk reward. What was behind the recent the recent appreciation? They had a really successful Super Bowl ad. So for those who aren't familiar, Super Bowl is, you know, the final game in the league. National Football League, I'm talking about American football, and it had a record number of viewers, even though the game wasn't too good. and uh it ran up before the super bowl on news of their ad and then the ad itself was sort of controversial for people I don't know why but afterwards the the stock continued running up as the hits on the hymns website soared after the ads now so that's the you know current near term catalyst. The company is a good company, but like I said, PE ratio of one hundred and thirty six is kind of just kind of stretching things. And I do believe that does have a lot of competition coming its way. I'm not really sure about how durable the moat is to justify a one thirty six PE. The growth has been quite good. And if you look at the latest quarter revenue of four hundred million, so annualize that that's close to a billion. But if you're looking at EBITDA, annualize that, that's close to a hundred million EBITDA. Again, there's growth. I understand that. But a hundred million EBITDA sporting a valuation of thirteen billion now, that seems rich. For a company that, you know, I'm not really sure about its competitive moat. it does have, it's a good company. It's an, it has, uh, I think really solid management and that, you know, over longer periods of time, that's ends up being the winner for you. And that is, you know, a solid management. Uh, but, um, yeah, I do think there's better risk return, uh, profiles out there. And just to give you guys a sort of, I'm not going to read out the, like the actual headlines of, you know, what I'm talking about. This is, uh, or read out the titles of these videos but you can read them for yourself and you know when I saw this page and it kind of corresponded with you know what I saw before from them of some of the themes that they and the people that they choose to to show on their ads I was like nah I'm not really comfortable here so um I I did end up selling but I did promise pif members that I would find inshallah another better risk return profile company that was in the same space inshallah and I would share that with them hopefully I will do that soon and there's another a number of other uh smaller cap stocks that I'm that I'm looking into that I do think have you know five to ten x potential if you'd like to follow our journey become a pif member if you aren't already link to do so is in the description and uh like this live if you enjoyed it uh hamid uh second part of your question by the way I owe you a review which I will do here I joined pif and since then I'm up almost that's awesome thanks hamid I really appreciate you sharing that Assalamu alaikum, Zuhair. Nice to see you. Good to see you, brother. How much do you take into account the short versus long term holding tax incentives when taking profits on the way up? Taxes scare me. Yeah, I've learned, Zuhair, not to make taxes control my investing decisions. I understand it makes sense to be a consideration. Certainly, if you're looking at the last two weeks of December, you may hold off on taking profits. But most of my experience has been when I knew I needed to make a move and I didn't make a move because of tax considerations, the money I could have made from making the move would have far outweighed the tax savings that I was thinking about. So that's been my experience. So I think most investors probably overweight the influence of taxes in their investment decisions. Hey, Salam, Dr. Khaled. Nice to see you, Salam. Brother Amin, nice to see you. As always, leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.