The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

The Most Bullish Thing...

Rakaan Kayali

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The Most Bullish Thing...

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro & Market Overview
  • Morgan Stanley’s Bullish Case for Stocks
  • Why a Government Recession Could Be Bullish
  • Market Updates: Tesla, TSMC, and Intel
  • Bitcoin’s Institutional Adoption & Sovereign Funds
  • The Importance of Family & Perspective 


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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Friday, February fourteenth, Jumu'ah Mubarak. And no, when I say Jumu'ah Mubarak, I'm not saying this is part of sunnah. Someone in the comments said, hey, Jumu'ah Mubarak wasn't said. I'm just saying, I hope you have a good Friday, inshallah. And I hope everything about your life has a buyer cat in it. So I would like to go over what I think because I saw a really interesting interview with the chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley earlier today. He expects choppiness in the market for a few months. They do have a six to five hundred price target for the S&P. Currently, it's around six thousand. The S&P is so he is bullish on the year for the S&P. He did articulate what I went over actually yesterday in my live. I'd like to hear it in person. His words as to what could be basically the most bullish thing to happen to the market. So let's listen in. I will say this. I think what could be interesting this year is you can have a recession in government. If you have a recession in government, that may actually cause unemployment to go up to a level. That could cause a recession. That's right. But it may not be that bad, Joe. And by the way, so he's referring to a recession in the government that is the downsizing of the government that's happening right now. And basically no jobs being available in the government sector, whereas they were very plentiful in the previous administration. This could raise unemployment and that could bring rates down or motivate the Fed to look more seriously into bringing rates down. What's important is that the government will be less of a competitor to the private sector. And so we could get a strengthening of the economy as people transition from the less productive government jobs to the more productive private sector. coupled with a more favorable interest rate environment. For the rest of the economy, because they've already been in sort of this soft recession. So that's actually our bull case, is that the government shrinks, the crowding out stops, it allows the Fed to cut rates at some point, and the broadening out can actually happen. A lot to happen between here and there, but that is actually the bull case. God, that was like a symphony to me, what you just described. And you think that's possible at Morgan? Well, I think they're working on it. I mean, you know, probably the most underestimated part of the administration is Doge. I mean, I think there's a lot of skepticism around this. But the reality is, is that's possibly the most bullish thing that could happen. If you could shrink the government in a way that, you know. It's the end of the free world in a constitutional crisis. I just heard Chris Murphy say that to me. I mean, I'm scared beyond belief. I'm scared where there's nothing in my intestines. Well, I mean, it's the most exciting thing I've heard in a while. Remember, in the nineteen nineties, we had this great bull market. Now, the thing that really sparked that, in my view, was the budget deal that happened in ninety four. OK, now I'm not sure we can get to that kind of a balanced budget, but if we can make progress on that, it liberates the private economy. That's the crowding out. Absolutely. One hundred percent. So there is historical precedent where in the Cutting the fat in government and downsizing the government, balancing the budget leads to an economic boom, as was mentioned. We saw this happen in the nineteen nineties, where we had one of the strongest stock market bull runs in recent history. So it's possible that we have something or at least similar impacts on the market with a more balanced budget, with a more efficient government and with a government that isn't crowding out the private sector. So with that, on that high note, let's go over quickly what happened today. So we did get basically a flat day. Let's call it a flat day. The NASDAQ was in the green. The Dow was not. S&P, yeah, that's flat. It's minus point zero one percent. And nothing really to write home about regarding the dollar index or the VIX or the yield on the ten year treasury. Look at some of the biggest names. Tesla was flat. Iris was flat. Taiwan Semiconductors was up one percent and Intel was down two percent. Let's talk about those in a second. Uber was down one percent and GME was up two percent. We'll talk about those two in a second as well. Gold is at twenty eight hundred. pulled back a bit from its previous highs in the twenty nine hundred area uh btc is chugging along between ninety five and a hundred thousand it's uh now at ninety seven thousand doge got a bit of a spike today at twenty seven cents and we are seeing renewed appetite for Trump's crypto was up forty percent. So it seems like there's more appetite for speculation. Perhaps there'll be more appetite for speculation over the weekend than there was in the previous two weekends, which were kind of brutal on the crypto markets. So let's talk about TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductors. This is the one of the most probably the most essential company definitely in semiconductors, but perhaps on Earth, it has basically a market share of the semiconductor manufacturing space. And semiconductors is in everything. No one seems to be able to replicate what they're doing at TSMC. And the US government has basically thrown in the towel with regards to hoping that something like Intel will end up competing on its own with TSMC. So now TSMC is considering running Intel's US factories after the Trump team request. So basically, Trump and his team are... And by the way, Intel is kind of beholden to the US government because it relies to a large extent on the CHIPS Act, which... intended to bring manufacturing onshore in the United States. And Intel has benefited tremendously from that. And so the US government has a lot of leverage over that company. And right now, the administration is saying, hey, you know, we think TSMC needs to actually be doing the manufacturing itself, perhaps at least. to a limited extent and not just leave Intel to its own devices to figure it out on its own. As you saw, Intel was down on that news, TSMC is up. So if we read some of the details here, Taiwanese contract manufacturer TSMC is considering taking controlling stake in chip maker Intel factories at the request of US Donald Trump's officials. Trump's team raised the idea of a deal between the two firms in recent meetings with officials from TSMC, and they were receptive. The talks are still in very early stages, but could throw a financial lifeline to Intel, which has struggled to restore its lost chip-making glory. Intel ceded its manufacturing technology edge to TSMC and is among a few chip makers that both design and manufacture semiconductors. And the company has also been losing share in the personal computer chip and server central processor market to rival AMD. So they've been losing left and right. Intel has, after once being you know, the darling of American industry, it has fallen from grace in a very dramatic way. It looks like TSMC may get a chunk of some of its manufacturing operations in the United States. And that's very good for TSMC investors. TSMC has, because, you know, the one very gray cloud above TSMC was the fact that, you know, it's in Taiwan. There's a lot of geopolitical risks there. China could invade. And perhaps one of the reasons China hasn't invaded is because of TSMC. But TSMC has been moving, it's opening a factory in Arizona, and it has been diversifying its geographical location outside of Taiwan, and that reduces the risk on the company. now going to let's talk about tesla for a second because we mentioned uber and tesla so uber wants tesla's robo taxis on its app because no one wants to compete against elon musk I really don't think so and the analogy that the uber ceo gave was oh well you know we deal with mcdonald's you know through ubereats so mcdonald's is on our app Uh, we facilitate the connection. Uh, we can do the same with Tesla cars. Uh, you can add your car to the Uber app and, and now Tesla robo taxis will be available on Uber's app. Similar to how McDonald's is available on Uber eats. I don't think that analogy is a good one because. know ultimately what is uber offering in in terms of mcdonald's there is a network of drivers that uber is offering but in terms of this proposed sort of synergy between uber and tesla there's no network of drivers. So what is it exactly offering? It's offering maybe the software itself, the fact that Uber app is, the Uber app is basically on more phones than the Tesla app. But all Tesla needs to do is just release its own Robotexy app. So I don't really think that Uber has a lot of bargaining power in such a negotiation. I'm not really sure if Tesla would want to do that. Maybe it would in the very beginning, for whatever reason. Even that, I think there's a small probability of that. But why share some of your profits with Uber? I think Tesla, ultimately, robo-taxis killed the Uber business model. Now, moving on to Bitcoin. So Wisconsin revealed in their latest XIII-F filing that it has doubled. So the state of Wisconsin investment board has doubled the amount of Bitcoin that it's holding. So it acquired an additional three point one million shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. And it was last year, the first sovereign fund to gain exposure to Bitcoin ETFs. Initially, the board purchased ninety five thousand shares and then they added two point nine million shares. And now they're adding three point one million shares, doubling the amount of Bitcoin that they're holding. Currently, their assets are valued at their Bitcoin assets at around six hundred million dollars. So Wisconsin was the first. And we're hearing about all these other states that are proposing legislation to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. And the mother of them all, the United States federal government, will be adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet. At least that's the plan and not just in terms of Bitcoin Reserve, but also in the sovereign wealth fund that was decided to be established. And speaking of sovereign wealth funds. Bitcoin has been added in the Middle East. Government-backed institutional investors also allocated funds to spot Bitcoin ETFs. So as these sovereigns start piling into Bitcoin, as these different corporations start piling into Bitcoin, we saw the volume of BTC on OTC desks is falling, this thing could spike in a hurry and it could become basically out of reach for most investors in, you know, twelve months time in terms of price. If you look at the MVRV Z-score, our favorite, measure for where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. We're at two point four right now, which is very, let's call it neutral territory. Previous Previous local highs have been in the seven or eight region. So there's a lot of room to run there. And I just think that I think that there's a lot of catalysts that are setting up here for Bitcoin. We may be choppy for. few more weeks or months but definitely when you add up all these catalysts I mean something's got to give you know you have all these sovereigns all these corporates adding bitcoin to their balance sheet and couple that with a monetary environment where we have a strong inclination that the next move in interest rates is going to be downwards not upwards it's I think uh just a matter of a subber on uh bitcoin's price eventually it should break out from the channel it has been in and uh someone who would like to find their bitcoin before that happens is a man that you may have heard his story he lost eight hundred million in bitcoin uh james howells the i.t pro who lost about eight thousand bitcoin in a landfill more than a decade ago thinks he has one last chance to dig up his buried treasure before it's lost forever he wants to buy the landfill they're gonna change and they're gonna make the landfill into a solar power plant, but he does not want that to happen. He wants to try and see if he can buy the landfill to get his Bitcoin back. And that's why people ask me about, hey, why are you owning Bitcoin to a Bitcoin ETF? Well, This is why, because self-custody has risks to it. And I'd like to avoid those risks and sleep comfortably at night, knowing that I do not have the responsibility of custodying my own Bitcoin. And the opportunity for someone to steal them is non-existent. So with that being said, If you would like to follow our portfolio, do become a PIF member. We should be adding a number of new names soon, inshallah. Very excited about that. There's a lot of opportunity in the market, especially in the small cap space, which is where my attention is really focused on these days. I am looking to get, you know, to... to hit a home run on you know one of these small caps and do a x for our pif members inshallah that is the goal inshallah we will do that and leave a like if you enjoyed this live make sure to enjoy your weekend spend as much time as you can with your family you know going off on a tangent here um We watched the last episode of Beast Games yesterday. And so that's like Mr. Beast's show on Amazon. And so, by the way, spoiler alert. So leave the video if you're watching. But the guy who won was a guy who he wins ten million dollars. Right. And his son. has an issue where, you know, his development, he's like seven years old, and his development is the development of, you know, someone who is a year and a half. And, you know, one of the thoughts that occurred to me was that, you know, you may, you may look at someone and say, Oh, well, you know, they're well to do financially, but you would not You would not replace that with some of the blessings that many of us take for granted and perhaps would not want to switch places. And so I feel like we spend an enormous amount of time focusing on material things, but in reality, the things that we already do have, like family, like friends. We don't give them enough care. We don't spend enough time with them. And in reality, if you put us against a really difficult decision, we'd obviously value our friends and family more than the money that we are chasing. So my message to you on this, Jamal, would be to Make sure you align your priorities with what you value most. So you take the opportunity that you have to spend as much time with your highest value thing, which is, or blessings, which are family and friends. And so, yeah. With that, I hope you have a great weekend. Thank you all for coming. Like I said, leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.