As-salamu alaykum. This is take two. Hopefully there's audio this time around. And once I get people logged in here, if you can hear me, then do leave it in the comments just to confirm. Today we're going to talk about the pullback that we saw in crypto. Salamat Rashad. Let me know if you can hear me. Perfect. Thank you, Ashad. Much appreciated. All right. So I was on a roll before that audio snafu happened. It will happen every now and then. Thank you all for tuning back in and letting me know the first time of the issue. All right. So let's dive right into it. We're already late. No time to spare. So market sentiment fell, started falling rapidly. well actually a couple months ago but we really got a free fall since feb since friday rather and it does on on the on the positive side it does seem like it is leveling off you'll see that in the uh green graph here uh that's uh market sentiment it is leveling off here it's no longer in free fall that is good if you subscribe to the uh to the axiom that you should buy when there is fear and sell when there is greed then the right now is probably a good time to be a buyer not a seller now in terms of market cap and um And that's represented in the white line here. And in terms of sentiment as well, the lows that we're seeing right now correspond with previous local lows that we've seen in the market. Now, I'm going to tell you why, as I probably have a habit of doing, tell you why you shouldn't be panicked at this point. And I'm going to back my... my claim with some facts data and statistics so let's start with the first of those facts and that is that the u.s manufacturing index has expanded for the first time since uh so yes quantitative easing it does help increase liquidity which floats all boats in terms of the asset world but Also, there are other ways in which liquidity can enter the market. One of them is simply through manufacturing picking up. That means bank loans are increasing. There's more creation of currency through bank lending because of our fractional reserve system. And right now, the manufacturing index is above fifty. That means it's in expansion. And oh, by the way, in the last twenty years, we really haven't been able to have a an expanding manufacturing index. when interest rates were not at zero, basically, or very close to zero. So this is very positive for the economy and it bodes well for the liquidity picture in the coming months. And if you look at the leading indicator for manufacturing PMI, that seems to be pointing towards additional expansion here, additional appreciation in the value of the manufacturing PMI, which means that there is an expansion in the economy happening with supports asset prices. and if you look at bank lending this you know confirms what I said regarding liquidity picture improving we do see that there is a comeback for commercial credit more loans are being given out to businesses. This makes total sense when we look at manufacturing activity. And it looks like growth is also accelerating in the loans that are given out, again, despite the higher than usual interest rates that we are dealing with. Speaking of interest rates, and one of the reasons why the markets are so down on themselves is that the probability for a Fed interest rate cut is very low. If you look at the March, nineteenth meeting, there's only a five percent chance of a cut. If you look at the May meeting, there's a twenty five percent chance basically of a cut. And so you really have to go out to September to get a more than likely probability that we get a cut. And so there is concern about that. But if you look at the trueflation metric, which measures inflation daily and is not lagging like the other traditional measures that we look at, CPI, PPI, and by the way, we're It does look like inflation is settling down. We're certainly not at the at the higher levels that we were in late twenty twenty one in twenty twenty two and early twenty twenty three. We've come down quite a bit. Yeah, we've leveled off. We haven't continued going towards the Fed's two percent target, but we are at you know, lower ranges right now. Truflation as of right now stands at two point thirty two percent, which is very close to the Fed's target. Now, yes, the Fed doesn't use Truflation in its policymaking, but I actually think it's a more representative picture of true inflation than the traditional metrics that tend to be lagging. And I think the January print was lagging. It's not reflective of what is happening. And so I expect the upcoming reads to be bullish for the market. And perhaps they break the trend that we are in right now. And not only that, I think that it's important to realize that the U.S. is not the only source of liquidity in the world. China is a major economy now. And if you look at, uh, two thousand sixteen, two thousand seventeen, the bull cycle that we had then liquidity in the U.S. didn't really improve a lot. But what happened and what supported the bull cycle at that time is the liquidity that was coming out from China. So we have historical precedent that tells us that China increasing liquidity can support markets sufficiently, even if the US is keeping things at a steady rate. And Right now, when you look at the Chinese economy, they're basically doing the opposite of the US economy. They're doing terribly. And if tariffs are imposed or increased, then they're going to be very incented to actually increase liquidity in their own economy. And especially with regards to crypto being a global asset, this should be bullish for crypto and assets generally. And I will point out to another piece of data, which I thought was pretty useful, which is that if you look at the first year of new administrations, late February, beginning of March tends to mark, that's that purple circle, tends to mark the a very good buying time tends to mark the bottom for the markets for that first year. So it's one of the most dangerous terms in investing is that this time is different because more often than not, This time is not really different. It's not exactly the same as previous times, but it rhymes. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. And finally, the last bullish indicator that I will bring to your attention is the fact that the strength of the dollar has been decreasing. Yes, it's not a straight line up or down. It's never that way. But if you look at the peak that we had January, let's say, or right around that, uh, since the start of the year, we have come down quite a bit. We were at one, we're at one, one Oh six right now. And the dollar weakening is good for risk assets. So for all of those reasons, I do see that this is probably a buying opportunity. Obviously, uh, know you don't want to catch a falling knife I understand that concern but in order to avoid that probability I think it's a good idea to dollar cost average and to if you're a pif member make sure you're watching out on our watch list And we sent today the order at which we would buy things. If you haven't checked that email, check it. It's obviously for inspirational purposes only, not financial advice. But if you stick to that and you dollar cost average your way into your positions, I think you'll do extremely well. With that being said, let's go to questions very quickly. Perhaps I'll do a deep dive on AMD soon. So I saw HIMSS was down today after hours. Dr. Boss saying, well, you were right about HIMSS stock. Actually, I wouldn't take a victory lap. I mean, I think actually the market is overreacting to GLP-I's and their contribution to HIMSS as a business. They're too focused on it. I actually think HIMSS probably has a bright future. Do you think US will move towards gold standard? No, I don't think so. Gold standard is really not a good standard to go by. The best standard to go by with regards to monetary policy is to have a supply that increases with the amount of goods and services, not one that is beholden to the amount of a certain mineral that you can mine from the ground. That makes no sense. Cloudflare, it's a good stock, perhaps a deep dive. I'm just, you know, I'm not excited about it. It's cybersecurity, obviously very sticky business, high repeat customers, but doesn't really excite me. how to determine when to buy considering a stock is below pif buy price just a dollar cost average as I said amir title on point thanks ali really appreciate it hype to see bit their earnings tomorrow obviously I will provide detailed analysis of that tomorrow inshallah for pif members love you guys thank you for tuning in leave a like if you enjoyed this live until next time make sure to take care of yourself salam alaikum and peace be upon you all