
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Only One Thing Matters đ
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Only One Thing Matters đ
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro & Market Overview
- Bitcoinâs Correlation with Liquidity
- Key Headlines Affecting Markets
- The âDetox Periodâ & Government Spending
- Bitcoinâs Strategic Reserve & What It Means
- Final Thoughts â Why I Remain Bullish
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. A rough day in the markets, a rough week in the markets. And actually, I should say a rough day for crypto, but a pretty positive day for the markets. We'll take it considering the days that we've had. I'm going to tell you today about all of the sort of major factors influencing the economy and why I really remain bullish. And I think that my call earlier that we were going to get a rebound in March still stands. And I'm going to start you off with this chart here which shows bitcoin's price and it shows the global liquidity index global liquidity index is in yellow that bright yellow and typically the price of bitcoin does follow the global liquidity index there's definitely a correlation there but there is a lag And typically, and if you look at the chart, I will show you later that lag is around fifty days. Now, let's start with the major headlines that I know a lot of you guys are thinking about. And then we'll go into some reasons why I am bullish. And in fact, there's only one thing that matters. There's only one thing that matters. Before we go into that, let's look at the indices. The VIX was down six percent, so that's good. So people are less fearful. The dollar index was down after there was huge drawdowns in the dollar index. You can see You can see here the dollar index has basically been in free fall since the end of February. We went from one of seven to one of three, which is good for risk assets. This is going to eventually have a bearing on risk assets. The Russell was up point three, three percent. The Dow Jones was up point five, two percent. S&P was up thirty one points. The U.S. ten year yield was up. The Nasdaq was up point seven, four percent. Stocks were a mixed bag. MicroStrategy, we talked about it yesterday, was down five percent. And it's kind of no wonder Bitcoin yesterday lost like five thousand dollars in the span of thirty minutes. Bitcoin is now at eighty six thousand six hundred. Sol is at one thirty nine. Doge is a smidge below twenty cents. And the Nvidia is up one point nine two percent. Super micro computers hovering around thirty eight dollars. All right. So let's go to the state of the economy. Why markets tanked and why that one thing that I think is most important is looking good. So. The market's thinking because the administration keeps coming up with dumber and dumber ideas every day. Not too long ago, this came out wherein it has been reported that Trump told Canada's Trudeau he wants to revise the boundary between the two countries. Why this is in any way needed is beyond me. Every time I go to Canada, it's a great experience. The border patrol is extremely, extremely nice, extremely friendly. It's a very easy process. You go in and out. If you're an American, it's as if it's part of America already. But that may change if this administration continues to piss off Canadians for no reason. I mean, Canadians are the nicest people in the world. For some reason, this administration, I don't know, thinks they're a greater threat to the United States than Russia and China. And goods were flowing freely between the two countries. Now there's tariffs. I don't know what this administration is trying to do This guy apparently wants to be considered a great president that expanded the borders of the United States. I guess that's what he's thinking. But it's just a really, really dumb idea and should be number five thousand on the list of priorities that the United States has. But the market has to deal with these types of headlines every day. And this uncertainty is very unsettling for a lot of investors and rightly so. Also, we have a detox coming, which I actually spoke about before, which is the market, which is the government spending less in the economy. And the market just has to adjust to this. The Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said this much today on CNBC, that the market and the economy have become hooked to excessive government spending and there's going to be a detox period. Now, I think that coming out of that detox period, we'll be in a much more healthy place. Private spending, money staying with people, less inflation, less government spending, I think is good because government spending is inherently very wasteful because it's not profit-driven. There isn't guardrails around it. Economics don't actually dictate how government spending happens. So it's inherently very wasteful and inefficient. And for that, for the private sector to take up the spending in place of the government, I think is very healthy for the economy. It's going to cause a growth boom, dare I say. But between now and then, there's going to be a detox period. I agree with this. And if you look at certain things that we're invested in, if you look at Tesla shares, for example, they have declined every week since Elon Musk has gone to Washington. In fact, the entire post-election bump that Tesla shares enjoyed has been completely wiped out as of today. But if you look at the fundamentals for the things that we hold and for many other names in the economy, they remain very strong. If you take TSMC, it's expanding its investment in the United States. Obviously the biggest risk for that stock was its geographical location in Taiwan. In fact, Buffett mentioned that he would have invested in TSMC if it wasn't for its location in Taiwan. But now it seems more and more that it is becoming a US company. It's investing more and more in the United States. Now, this may be very bad for Taiwan, considering that It previously had a silicon shield, basically something that prevented China from invading it, which was the risk of disrupting TSMC's business, which is vital for technology globally. But as TSMC moves its geographical footprint outside of Taiwan, Taiwan may not have that shield anymore. And that may be very bad for Taiwan. And especially considering how Donald Trump has been very ready to abandon Ukraine and not support it and not support the NATO alliance in any way. China, when TSMC moves out of Taiwan, it's basically the road is open for it to take that island. So this may be very bad for Taiwan, but for TSMC, at least it takes off the risk of complete catastrophe in case China were to invade. Now, In more good news, I think, the government has changed it. This is regarding the strategic Bitcoin reserve, which I'm sure you've heard of. You heard of the announcement that came out yesterday that indeed the US was establishing the strategic Bitcoin reserve, but it wasn't going to be buying Bitcoin, which is what the market wanted. It was just going to be holding the Bitcoin that it seizes through forfeiture and through civil action. and through criminal forfeiture. Basically, it changed its rating from a sell to a hold on Bitcoin. Now, this may have disappointed the markets at the time that there was no buying. But in fact, it gives Bitcoin legitimacy that it often only dreamed of. The United States actually saying that, no, we're going to hold on to Bitcoin. This is something that we think is going to become more valuable with time. We're not going to sell it. It also takes off the table the possibility of the U.S. government at least banning Bitcoin. And it kicks off the, I think, appetite for other countries to establish their own strategic Bitcoin reserves. After all, if the United States is doing it, maybe they should do it too, especially considering time is of the essence and Bitcoin is on average getting more and more pricey and it's going to become more and more difficult to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if you don't have it. in the future. And this is actually very good for the asset And in the executive order, so Michael Saylor here is reporting, President Trump signed the executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve with a fixed supply of twenty one million coins. There is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. So the current administration is basically laying out its investment thesis in Bitcoin, which is unprecedented. Now, Texas actually passed a stronger bill than the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on March seven, which didn't get much coverage. But it's actually very important. Texas took a step towards becoming one of the first states to create a cryptocurrency stockpile as the state Senate approved. A proposal to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The bill would enable Texas to invest state funds in cryptocurrencies with an average market value of at least five hundred billion over the last twelve months. That definition would currently apply only to Bitcoin, the largest and oldest digital asset. So actually, Texas is the Texas Senate now passed the bill. to actually buy Bitcoin. It's more, they're actually investing in Bitcoin, which is more bullish for the asset in terms of creating demand than the strategic Bitcoin reserve. So this, and to the tune of five hundred billion, which is which is not trivial in any sense. So that is actually very good for the asset. The the fundamentals for this asset now with an ETF, with the government almost their imprimatur on the asset being given with the SBR, with the companies that I talked about yesterday that are moving towards a Bitcoin reserve system with the states and sovereign governments today, which I'm reporting on, which are moving towards a Bitcoin reserve system. This is very bullish for the asset. I don't care what the price is saying. This is very bullish for the asset. The macro will solve itself. I always said that the macro will solve itself. Don't make your investment decisions based on macro. Take advantage of when macro spooks the the newly initiated market investors. You as a seasoned investor need to know better. And Bitcoin, if you look at this chart, Bitcoin market cap lags global liquidity by fifty days and the altcoin market cap lags by sixty days. Bitcoin market cap lags by fifty days. And right now, if you look at that yellow line, it's going up and the The price of Bitcoin prices and crypto market cap in total is set to, I think, follow the correlation that it has followed historically. If you look at the probabilities for a rate cut in May, they are now better than they were two weeks ago, three weeks ago, as the probability for the economy slowing in the near term and perhaps the Fed Increasing his readiness and having a stronger justification to cut rates increases. And this is very good for risk assets. And so the way I see it right now is that in the near term, we have this massive catalyst, which is rates going down and seven trillion dollars that are on the sidelines actually moving towards risk assets. And in the longer term, a medium to longer term, we have the catalyst of a stronger economy with more robust growth, given less government spending, less crowding out of the private sector by the government and more money in private hands, using that money more efficiently to generate goods and services and GDP growing. So in the near term, I think we have a monetary policy put on the market which will save it from crashing. And in the mid to longer term, I think we have the prospects of a stronger economy. The geopolitical scene right now stinks. There's a lot of risks everywhere. I understand this. But if we're looking at the fundamentals here for the market, based on what we know right now, I think they are solid. And we have some solid sort of puts that are embedded into the market. And I wouldn't be surprised if we rallied here, if next week was a bottom and perhaps we rallied to close out March. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. I don't know the future, but I would not be surprised if it happens. Also, the dollar is crashing. I alluded to this earlier, and that is good for risk assets, makes the conversion rate easier for multinational companies. It also enables foreign investors to invest at cheaper prices for them in U.S. equities. So that is good as well. And, you know, as the saying says, or as the saying goes, scared money don't make money. And I noticed this trader here. I think he has the right idea, although I don't really like to dabble in options. Before to close, someone sold two million worth of Tesla, two fifty puts expiring next week, which means that if Tesla doesn't go below two fifty, this gentleman will pocket two million dollars, which is. I don't think. I think this is probably a good trade, but we'll see. Obviously, you can remind me next week and perhaps congratulations are in order for this fella. But what I wanted to point out was the fact that you get to a point where you can place two million dollar bets when you have the right mentality and that mentality is to actually do the opposite of the obvious. And so right now, sentiment is really low. People are scared. And I think the more seasoned investors are thinking, oh, it's time to buy right now, as opposed to, is the market gonna crash? Should I sell what's left of what I'm holding? Again, not financial advice, as I always say, but that's how I like to look at things. Take a contrarian point of view, take a contrarian stance. And that has made me money over the years. By the way, if you'd like to... See what I'm investing in, the moves I make. Then it became cheaper by thirty five percent just for the month of Ramadan and for a specific number of seats only. Use code Ramadan twenty twenty five and shout out, big shout out to the people who signed up already using this code before I even announced it. I guess they just guessed it. But I mean, it's not that hard to guess, I guess Ramadan, pretty easy. But, um, I was getting notifications of these, uh, memberships and I was like, what the, like, is there like a bug what's happening? And apparently these guys just guessed the code and they used the coupon before I said it. So I guess kudos to them. Maybe I should use something less obvious next time. But yeah, I'll put the code in the comments for anyone who wants to use them. We'd love to have you. on our team because we are a team and you get access to our picks you get access to our community slash team as I said and we discuss the markets every day in our discord channel and you also get access to any insights and our watch list which has a rating of or ranking now of different assets that we are interested in and what we're buying on any given day. So yeah, become a PIF member. I think it will pay off many fold inshallah. And with that, let's take some questions. CLSK just got added to the S&P five hundred small cap index. Interesting. What is CLSK doing today? CLSK up eight percent. So that might explain that jump in price. Dr. Khalid says, Salam alaikum, alaikum salam, Dr. Khalid, Ramadan Mubarak, nice to see you as always. Elias Sherzai says, what are your thoughts on Salana? I actually did an evaluation of Salana a few lives ago, check it out. DCA over a period of a month, trying to have at least, at the end, eighty percent DOGE, twenty percent BTC. Inshallah, may Allah... give you whatever you're after, inshallah. Can you give your opinion on this strategy? Oh, okay. I don't give financial advice. If you'd like to follow my portfolio, see what I'm doing for inspiration, you can do so. If you'd like to book a consultation, you can do so as well. Can we renew our membership with this? So as I always say, with regards to renewals, the idea behind the code, the idea behind the discount is for people who have never experienced a membership to get incentivized to experience it. That's the idea behind it. It's not for people who have already sort of proven out the value and inshallah made many times what they invested. To, to renew their membership. And so if you want to, but I understand that some people, you know, cash is tight for them. You know, maybe they can't afford in which case, and then yeah, I use it. Although I think the only way to use it would be to. cancel your account and then start a new one. But yeah, I mean, if you're tied on cash, then that's something that you can do. Otherwise, I would say the idea behind the discount is for new members to kind of get incentivized to try it out. But yeah, hopefully that answers your question. And I'm super excited to meet all the new members that join. I think we have an awesome community. The best Hala Conscious investor community there is, if I do say so myself. And inshallah, next week will be better than this week in terms of the market, inshallah. And inshallah... It's not as bad as many people are saying. Try not to get drawn to the doomsday people where the sky is falling. Try to ignore those noises. I think the fundamentals are pretty sound. So with that being said, enjoy your weekend. Until next time, take care of yourself. Ramadan Mubarak to everyone. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.