The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Don't Trust This

Rakaan Kayali

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Don't Trust This

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro: Market Swings & Noise vs. Signal
  • Stock Market Update: Nasdaq, Dow Jones & VIX
  • Inflation Numbers & Market Expectations
  • Trump’s Tariffs on Canada & Economic Impact
  • Bitdeer Stock Analysis: Upside Potential?
  • Bitcoin Price Projections & Undervaluation
  • Final Thoughts & Market Outlook

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DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone. Another wild day in the markets and the day isn't over yet. But basically we're swinging with the headlines. We get a positive headline, we go up, we get a negative headline, we crash down. My message to you today is that and this is a common message that I've been saying on this channel for a while, make sure you're distinguishing the signal from the noise. The signal in the case of the markets is going to be the liquidity levels. The noise is going to be the, you know, Donald Trump's tweets that I can, even though he's the president of the United States, he flip-flops so much on everything. And the, is very moody in his policies, that you really have to just ignore it at this point and focus instead on the signal, which is the liquidity picture and what it's setting up to be in the near future, medium term and longer term. and the economy and how that's doing. Now, we did get a number of headlines. We'll talk about those. If we're looking at the indices, they're basically almost flat, I'm going to say. They were down a lot. earlier in the day and then they turned green and now they're kind of flat if you look at the russell it's up half a percentage point uh the nasdaq is up half a percentage point the dow jones is down half a percentage point uh the vix is down three percent uh we're all waiting for tomorrow's number tomorrow's inflation number and that will I think determine the trajectory uh that we end up on for the next few days and weeks but I actually am optimistic I think that you know we may have we may have bottomed out or very near bottomed out where we are right now and I I do expect So recovery may not be immediate, but towards the end of March, I do expect us to be on a completely different trajectory than where we are right now. Looking at some of the names that we'd like to talk about, Tesla recovered a bit, close to five percent today. Bitdeer is up close to five percent. I'll talk about Bitdeer in a second. Now, Irish Energy is up six point six five percent. uh bitcoin's at eighty two close to eighty three thousand solana's at one twenty six up seven percent doge is up eight percent at sixteen six sixteen cents and uh six tenth and some of the headlines that I was referring to ukraine agrees to a us-led ceasefire plan this is jacked up the market Now, this doesn't mean that Russia has accepted it yet. And it's only a thirty day ceasefire. So it's not the end of the war, but it does get the guns to stop shooting. And so, you know, for thirty days, which heightens the chance of a deal being struck. Now, on the negative side, Trump raised Canada's steel aluminum tariffs to fifty percent in retaliation for what should be expected from Canada, which is that it is putting tariffs of its own on exports to the United States. So President Trump said he has ordered his administration to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports by an additional twenty five percent, bringing the total duties to fifty percent, almost making it impossible to do business. Trump said he was imposing the latest tariffs in response to a decision by Ontario's government to slap a twenty five percent tax on electricity exports to the US. And he may declare a state of emergency with regards to electricity in the areas that are impacted in all of this. What's really sort of, you know, puzzling about all of this is that it could be easily avoided by just not engaging in this type of behavior, which with, you know, one of our closest allies in the world, which is Canada. Now, I do understand that Trump has this ambition to make Canada the fifty first state in the United States, and that would certainly cement his legacy as a U.S. president, at least in his mind, and perhaps, you know, making Canada the lives of Canadians tougher outside of the United States is his strategy to do so. But this is just alienating the Canadian people and making them hate the United States. So I don't think it's actually a smart strategy at all. It would have been much more wise if he wanted to wanted to make Canada part of the United States is to do things that, you know, make the United, um, that, that curry favor with the Canadians that, that actually makes the Canadians like the United States. And what's, what's odd is that Canadians did like Americans and did like the United States before a lot of this. And so there wasn't this tension before. So instead of building on that, he destroyed it. And now he wants to, somehow capitalize on it, which is really weird. Now let's talk about Bitdeer. So Bitdeer is a company that we hold in our PIF portfolios. And it's one that I have been bullish on for a while. I've talked about it on the lives. And today I wanted to make sure that, you know, I wasn't going crazy here with my valuation for Bitdeer. So just sort of napkin math that I wanted to share with you guys. So actually, let me make sure this is So I looked at and typically I do a discounted cash flow evaluation. But in the interest of time, we'll just look at the PE multiple. So the average forward PE that looks at the next twelve months for Bitdeer since its IPO has been around seventy. Current PE is around forty six and the industry average is around twenty one. Obviously, the higher PE reflects the higher expected growth rate. Now, net income in twenty fifty. So since we're looking at forward, I want to look at the net. So the next twelve months, I want to look at the net income in twenty twenty six, what I expect it to be. And the multiple of that will give me what I expect the. uh market cash for the company to be so net income twenty twenty six around two hundred fifty million is what I expect it to be and if you multiply that by let's say the average since it's the highest number the average forward pe let's assume that's the bull case base case is the current pe and the industry average although you could argue that the like right now considering market sentiment this is more of a bear case than it is a base case, but let's just say the base case is the current PE, the bear case is the industry average. If we multiply the net income by these multiples to figure out what price we should be at at the end of the year, then we come to market caps of seventeen billion, eleven billion and five billion. Now keep in mind the current market cap for this stock is around two billion. And this translates to share prices of ninety one, sixty and twenty seven. By the way, keep in mind Bitdeer is a company that is probably the only Bitcoin mining company or sort of Bitcoin mining company because they make their own rigs. It's the only Bitcoin in that in that category company that is has actually bought back shares, so I'm calculating the share price here based on no dilution. It's possible that we do get dilution, but it's possible that actually more share buybacks happen. So share price, assuming the number of shares remains the same, ninety one in the bull case, sixty in the base case, twenty seven in the bear case. And so you can see here the percentage upside here is quite generous. So Now, we still have to discount from December to here, so I'd probably discount at least fifteen percent. And I try to go with the bear case, especially with the price targets that I share with PIF members. And so at twenty seven right now, we're trading hands at around ten dollars. So I think there's at least a doubling here for Bitdeer given its current price. Now, financial advice, just sharing with you my calculations. And by the way, if you'd like to follow our portfolios move for move, then make sure to take advantage of the Ramadan discount code that we have going on. Thirty five percent off. That's. That's an amazing deal. You get access to our portfolio, move for move. You get access to our watch list, buy and sell prices, PIF insights, and our community. And the list goes on and on. We're adding features all the time. So become a member if necessary. You aren't already, would love to have you. So I do want to point out Bitcoin and where we are right now. This is what I would consider signal as opposed to noise. So the MVRV Z-score, this has been a very reliable metric for when you can expect local bottoms, local tops for Bitcoin. And you can see that we're now approaching in terms of the Z-score where we had a a local bottom recently, which was September of twenty twenty four when we bottomed in the fifty thousands and and then we shot up to north of one hundred thousand. We're reaching that level on the MVRVZ score. So, you know, right now, in terms of Bitcoin's price, We are at eighty three thousand. Some people say it's going to go lower, lower seventies. Some people say maybe lower sixties. But. Make no mistake, the upside from here is far greater, I believe, than the downside. If you look at the. Stock to income model. Then this has been a pretty reliable model, if you look at the. green line, that's the Bitcoin price. If you look at the white line, that's what the model is projecting. If you look at, let's move this a bit here, I think we can get a bit more recent. All right. So March first, the actual and and uh the actual uh price uh was uh the lower band here based on this model is a hundred and fifteen thousand projected price is two hundred and thirty upper band is four hundred and sixty now yes there's a lot of variation that happens uh vis-a-vis this model but if you look at the green line, it has been hugging the white line for years now. So, I mean, it goes up, it goes down, but it's basically, you know, in the same ballpark as this white line is. So that kind of gives you an idea of how undervalued we are. And I do believe that I've mentioned before the improving fundamentals for Bitcoin in terms of regulation, a more friendly SEC, Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, Sovereign Wealth Fund, all of the... competition between corporations really enhances the fundamentals for this asset and makes this and these are things that don't necessarily come up in this model And then finally, I'm going to leave with you this thought, which is that this comes from the user barxys. I watched Bitcoin go from sixty nine to fifteen and seventy three to forty eight. Now we've gone from one oh nine to seventy seven. Even if we go lower, nothing has fundamentally changed. We have all the positive news we could have ever hoped for. Now we just need the liquidity to drive prices higher. And I do believe that. And we'll get a lot of information about the liquidity picture tomorrow. I do actually expect it to be a bullish day in the markets tomorrow. I could be wrong. It's tough to predict day-to-day movement. If you haven't become a PIF member yet, do become a member. And I'm sorry I can't take your questions today. I do have to run, but leave your questions in the comments if you'd like me to address them tomorrow. All right. Until tomorrow, inshallah, take care. Leave a like. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.