
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
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In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro: Market Red Again
- Trump’s Tariff Plans & Market Fear
- Bitcoin & ETF Inflows: What's Next?
- Tesla's Struggles: Stock Drop & Recalls
- Long-Term Tesla Catalysts: Robotaxis & Energy Growth
- Will Bitcoin Still Hit $200K?
- Final Thoughts & Viewer Q&A
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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Thursday, March, and the markets have had another red day. We couldn't carry the momentum from yesterday into today. There's additional talk about tariffs, and obviously Donald Trump is doubling down on the April second, what he calls Liberation Day, which is the day when tariffs are going to go into effect. Investors are very understandably nervous about this. We don't want a situation where we have both the economy slowing down and we have inflation that's really self-inflicted because of these asinine tariffs. That being said, and all this hoopla that's going on in the macro, it's very important that we remember what I always say, which is that macro is going to solve itself, inshallah. It always does. And what we can do is focus on the things that are under our control, which is our positioning, what we put our money behind, the... theses and evaluations that we do for the companies that we invest in have to continue to make sense. We need to make sure that we're following those and make sure that we're always adjusting our positions accordingly but not based on headlines of today not based on investor sentiment today in fact oftentimes bucking the herd doing the opposite of what the market is doing makes investors a lot of money if they know if they know what they're doing and they're doing it for the right reasons not bucking you know the herd just for the sake of bucking it but If you know what you're doing, you're investing based on future cash flows that you expect for an asset, you're doing your homework, then this can pay off in a big way. That is having the guts to invest when everyone doesn't feel like it can pay off in a big way. And that's what we're doing at PIF. We continue to nibble. We're not backing up the truck. We understand that there's risks. We understand that maybe there is another leg down for the market, who knows. But we continue to nibble in these and we're doing valuations. I'm doing valuations on live just to, you know, prove some of the or make more clear some of the decisions that we've made and hopefully increase our conviction in them. And that's what we will continue to do. Now, what I'm going to say in this live, I believe, can perhaps save people thousands of dollars, tens of thousands of dollars. Perhaps there will be a difference of hundreds of thousands of dollars, maybe even millions, depending on the size of their portfolio. And so listen up, leave a like if you enjoy these lives and you find some benefit in them. And without further ado, let's get started. So do this. And even though this should cause a sense of urgency, in fact, what I want you to do is more of not doing. I'll explain in a second. All right, so this is how the markets look today. Kind of ugly. Kind of like, I don't know, an ugly December day. Everything is kind of gloomy. Not much bright spots to make note of. Meta's up two percent and it's the greenest box in this map. So it kind of tells you where the market is at. If we look, though, at some of the fundamentals, if we look at the money supply globally, we don't limit ourselves to just the United States and the policy mistakes that are being made there. If you look at globally, M-to-Supply is rising. And I've said this before on this channel, M-to-Supply, by the way, that's that pink It's the pink line. Bitcoin's price is the white line. There is a lag, but they do follow one another. There's a lag of around fifty days between the M. Two supply and Bitcoin's price. And you can see M. Two supply is making new all time highs all the time. And I expect fully expect Bitcoin to follow. And we are seeing some positive signs out of the ETF inflows. So after we had the longest run of outflows in BTC ETF history since they started beginning of last year, we're finally seeing inflows again. So this is positive. The fundamentals are looking good. If we can just get a hold of some of the saber rattling that's coming out of the U.S. administration, I think we can get this market back on track. one asset that we talk about a lot on this channel that has taken a beating as of late is tesla and that's what I want to focus on in this life obviously you've heard there's been a lot of vandalism cases where teslas have been burned they've been destroyed people are upset with musk they're taking it out on tesla I'm of the opinion that Tesla, the company, is different from Elon Musk, the person. Elon actually owns thirteen percent of the shares of Tesla, thirteen percent. So it's nowhere near a majority of shares. There are a lot of people invested in this company and this company does a lot of good. And I would say it has had the biggest impact in the transition of the world, really. And had it not been for it, this transition would not happen. The transition of the world to electric cars, which I think will yield a lot of benefit for many generations to come. And it's doing a lot of other things that are really important in terms of power generation, storage, and in terms of robotics and other things, if you just look at their, you know, full self-driving, it has proven to be, you know, already, if you look at number of accidents per number of miles, if you look at number of accidents per million miles, for example, When full self-driving is engaged versus when it's not engaged, full self-driving is many times more safe than a human driver, if you're looking at that metric. And therefore, it's done a lot of good for the world. So I don't think it's fair to say that Tesla is an evil company, to say that Tesla is somehow... having a net negative impact it's not if you're upset with elon musk that's fair I think he should be a lot of the things that he is saying are I I have to say though what he's doing is actually quite good in terms of doge sometimes he says stuff that are really that are really bad but um in terms of like what he is actually doing, the impact of his actions, I think they're actually quite good. And I'll go to, if I, you know, if I want to focus on Elon Musk, the person here, if you look at his platform X, I think the amount of freedom of expression on X is a lot better than most other social platforms out there. so you can see a lot more pro-palestine voices for example on x than you will see on almost any other platform maybe rumble but rumble is not as popular as x's so with that being said even though you know a lot of the things that he says are not necessarily you know great I agree with but the actions And the things that he's been behind, I think, have been a net positive. I know that's going to be controversial, but that's my opinion. And it's gone so bad that, you know, some Tesla owners are going to extreme lengths to disguise their Teslas. I think this is Photoshop, but it gave me a laugh when I saw it. Anyways, now bad news comes in threes, as they say. Well, in the case of Tesla, they may come in fives and sixes and sevens. So Tesla recalled most of its Cybertrucks recently because the trim was detaching from the vehicle. I'm not going to hold that against them. Obviously, the Cybertruck is a model that really no one has tried before. And so I'm going to cut them some slack there. They are recalling everything in order to fix the issue. And today I heard of a huge amount of money. Now, I don't really believe headlines as they're being said, but I know a lot of people are taken by headlines and kind of don't read the fine print. Basically, what's happening here is that there's an amount of CapEx that the company made that isn't matching with the amount of plant property and equipment that the company is reporting there's a discrepancy of one point six billion dollars and some people are saying oh well this means you know the accounting isn't up to snuff for tesla I don't I'm not going to jump to that conclusion it is a question mark I don't know what the reason for this is I'm sure there is some explanation here What I want you to do is to, what I've gone over so far, I believe is brand related things. I think minor, accounting question that will be resolved, I think, in terms of recalling their Cybertrucks. Every major vehicle manufacturer at one point or another has recalled cars that they've put out without exception. So everything I've said, even though, you know, in the moment seems terrible, I would make sure that I'm focusing on the longer term here. If you look at Tesla energy generation and storage on its own, it generated ten billion dollars in revenue last year. I expect it to grow at least fifty percent this year. So you're talking about something that could reach. A hundred billion dollars in five years. just the Tesla energy generation and storage part of the business. If you look at their ride hailing robot slash robo taxi efforts, they've recently got, this is March, they got ride hail permit in California. This is the first step to rolling out a robo taxi service that it wants to roll out in California and Texas first. So if you look at some of the estimates for what Robotaxi is going to generate, you have Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. Now, she doesn't really have a great return on her ETF. It's pretty poor, actually. She's destroyed a lot of value. But the fact of the matter is she has gotten Tesla right. And her research on Tesla, I think, is actually quite good. So for whatever reason, it seems like she gets basically everything else wrong. But her research on the topic of Tesla or her firm's research, I should say, is actually quite good. And she mentions that in a recent interview that robot taxis will generate eight to ten trillion in revenues by twenty thirty, half of which go to platforms like Tesla. So it's not half of which is going to go all to Tesla, but it's going to go to platforms like Tesla. And I believe that. Among all the platforms, Tesla will probably have the lion's share of the share that goes to them. And so you're talking potentially multiple trillions of dollars coming in to platforms like Tesla and Tesla being the biggest of these platforms. BYD will be, I think, competing as well. But it's basically one and two, Tesla and BYD, I believe. And there's a whole host of other catalysts for Tesla for a twenty twenty five and into twenty twenty six. So we have the robot taxi launch in June of of this year in Austin. We have full self-driving expansion, China and Europe. We have affordable Tesla models coming out the first half of twenty twenty five. So, you know, next three months. AI and robotics growth. Obviously, we have the first Tesla Optimus robots coming off the assembly line later this year. The energy division is growing like weeds, as I showed, and Tesla Semi, which could be a huge business on its own. So What I recall, because I've been in Tesla for a long time, and what I recall is, in the years, we were kind of in a similar situation. And so I recall the stock went down close to fifty percent. So, you know, within a matter of months and actually very similar time period. So between December and May, Tesla went down fifty percent. And there was a lot of talk about whether the company was going to survive, whether they would finally post a profitable year or not, and whether this whole EV business was going to work. And then between May, and November, the stock was up. Three thousand one hundred percent. So if you endured this fifty percent drought and you stuck with it, you understood the thesis and you held between May of two thousand nineteen and November of twenty twenty one. So just basically two years, you are up three thousand one hundred percent. So right now, if you look between December of last year, and right now where we are, March, we're down at forty five percent. Right. Maybe there's a there's there's some more to go. I don't know. Maybe we go down below two hundred. That happens. Be great if you're if you're buying Tesla like I am. But we'll continue to nibble as PIF members. No, we'll continue to nibble along the way. We're not going to stop. Now, I believe that the next twelve, eighteen, twenty four months are going to be similar to that period in two thousand nineteen to two thousand twenty one. Now, I'm not saying they're going to be the same in terms of the percentage appreciation in the stock price, because it's obviously starting from a much larger base now. but I do believe that we could have a very strong appreciation in the price of this stock in the next twelve eighteen twenty four months so the job for investors right now is to make sure and this is not financial advice this is just what I'm telling myself all the time I'm telling myself all the time make sure I try and get my hands on as many shares as possible And I don't lose any single one of them. Not swing trade, not do anything fancy, not day trade, not look at charts. This is the period I believe we have probably from now until maybe the end of June where this stock may not perform really that strongly. But I believe after that, you have just a lot of positive catalysts coming its way. And we may have a run in Tesla stock that makes people millionaires. And so that's kind of what I wanted to emphasize. Ignore how down people think about how down Tesla stock is and how down people are on the company right now. The brand, I think, will recover. The catalysts are what are going to stay. And if you can hold on to the stock and preferably accumulate, but if you can hold on and accumulate over the next twelve, eighteen, twenty four months. I think you're going to thank me. Again, not financial advice, just how I'm thinking about it. Now, if you'd like to see what we're investing in, make sure to become a PIF member. Use code ramaldon, twenty twenty five, final ten days, thirty five percent off. And I hope to see you in the community. Let's go to questions. Azad says, Salam alaikum, alaikum salam. Salam, Rashad. Nice to see you. I can understand why you're nervous. This administration seems kind of unhinged, but I think they will eventually settle down. It's been a pretty crazy start of their tenure, but eventually they'll settle down. Not talking about prop firms, Azad. Zuhair, salam alaikum. Dr. Boss says we are going to continue to chop until April second until reciprocal tariffs go into effect. It seems like Trump is going to let them because Powell only said two rate cuts this year. Thoughts? Well, let's see. I mean, Trump has rolled back a lot of things. It does seem like he's doubling down on the April second date. We'll see if that's a negotiation tactic or Or he's actually going to do it. Obviously, I think if the market drops further, I think there'll be additional pressure on him to kind of wake up and stop this nonsense. But we'll see. What I do know is that from Powell, they're forecasting two rate cuts. We might get three. And they're also rolling back quantitative tightening. So if we have a situation where global liquidity is increasing, quantitative tightening is being rolled back in the United States. Interest rates are going down in the United States. And by the way, Powell mentioned two rate cuts in twenty twenty five, two rate cuts in twenty twenty six. So this is from a liquidity standpoint, very bullish for risk assets. liquidity is going up, that should float all boats. And so I am optimistic now. I think we're going through the rough part here of that picture, but by mid-year onwards, I think we'll have a much different feel for the market. And maybe it comes before that if we can have some positive headlines that make investors less nervous. Trump versus Powell looks like a heated head-to-head coming up. Let's hope not. I mean, honestly, I am like, yeah, I hope the checks and balances of the system in this country keep this new administration in check because so far they've kind of they've kind of overstepped with impunity. Lebronski, my opinion tariffs are giving us insight that we're in the same shape as Russia's economy after the beginning of Ukraine and Russia war. I wouldn't go that far, brother. I don't think the situation is that dire at all. Zabiba says, Assalamualaikum. What do you think to invest in SPDR gold? I don't like investing in things when they're at all-time highs, to be honest. And right now, gold is at an all-time high. Maybe it continues. But if you ask me, hey, do you want to invest in something that's at an all-time high or something that you have strong conviction in that lost fifty percent? in the last three months. I'm going to go with the one that lost fifty percent that I have strong conviction in. Assalamu alaikum Ameer. Don't you think the real world use case of Optimus would eventually end up as a sort of weapon with the biggest customer, probably the US military? Well, I do think that there will be robots that are used as weapons. I don't think Optimus will be optimized, no pun intended, for that use. I believe Optimus is going to be optimized for civilian use, basically, and probably will have restrictions on using it as a weapon. The market, after all, that just makes a lot of business sense. I mean, maybe there'll be some other robots that are optimized for military use, but the market for just a general non-lethal general purpose robot is infinite basically so I don't see and you know you don't want the negative sentiment that comes with you know producing a robot for military purposes so I don't see why Tesla would do that what about investing in BYD then I don't like BYD's strong connection with the Chinese Communist Party It seems like an arm of the Chinese Communist Party, so that's why I don't invest in it, although it's a good company. I have a question. I know perpetuals is haram, and I was telling one of my former buddies that perpetual leverage you don't actually borrow, but that's not true, right? Yeah, I've looked at perpetual futures before, and I'm Not a fan. I'm uncomfortable with them. And I have a video on them. Malikum Salaam. Sid, nice to see you. Paying Zakat on Bitcoin. Many are familiar with Bitcoin. Should it be calculated on the pre-tax or after-tax amount? It's calculated on the amount that you've held for the lunar year. So, I mean... yeah so I definitely wouldn't take out taxes if you haven't paid them um your prediction of bitcoin two hundred by the end of the year was mainly due to bitcoin reserve since the bitcoin reserve is not buying and just not selling do you still think two hundred k is likely to happen I honestly think that it is now I I think that is um still on the cards the two hundred k for bitcoin I understand that the market hasn't really appreciated a lot of the crypto bullish news that has come out, but I think eventually it will. I also think that the argument for gold right now can be made for Bitcoin. You're seeing gold reaching all-time highs. And although I've shown in previous live that there is no correlation between them and price, but in terms of use case as a, as a store of value, I think the argument for gold can be made for Bitcoin. And it's just a matter of time before people start realizing that and saying, and realizing that Bitcoin is just a better version of gold. And we're already seeing the start of you know sovereign countries companies states stacking bitcoin we're already seeing the start of that and therefore I think that that competition that race is going to get very heated, and hopefully with the liquidity that's coming in, which I mentioned, and hopefully we get some calmer geopolitical environment, I do think that Bitcoin can rise sharply before the end of the year. Yeah, thanks, Rashad. Check bar. Okay, so Max is not a fan of Tesla. All right, so thank you, guys. I appreciate you tuning in. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.