
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
A Hidden Gem 💎
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A Hidden Gem 💎
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro & Market Overview
- Market Disruptions: Tariffs & Liquidity Cycles
- Why AI in Healthcare is the Future
- Tempus AI: Business Model & Growth Potential
- Financials: Revenue, Profitability & Stock Valuation
- Investment Strategy: When to Buy Tempus AI?
- Q&A: Tesla’s Robotaxis, Day Trading, & Dividend Stocks
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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Friday, March twenty first, and the markets today were I mean, they were good, but by a very small margin. So Dow Jones is up point zero eight percent. The S&P is up point zero eight percent. The Nasdaq is up point three nine percent. But we'll take it any day we can get where the president isn't making headlines is a green day in the markets. And so all he needs to do for the markets to recover, I think, is just to stop making headlines. with his ideas about tariffs and annexing Canada and all the other things that he should really just keep to himself. But if you look at globally, markets are, if you look year to date, the markets in Europe are up, markets in China are up. Globally, liquidity is up. So the natural state of the markets right now would have been for us to have continued the run we were on in Q four of twenty four. What has interrupted the run and the natural cycle, I think, of the market, which is expected to end towards the end of this year. the natural liquidity cycle and therefore the natural sort of risk assets cycle. What has interrupted that is all the talks about tariffs and the new calculus that comes with that. But if we're able to, you know, cut a few deals on tariffs, roll back some of the threats that we've made and geopolitical situation calms down, then we should get back to the upward trajectory that we were on, and inshallah, make up for the lost ground as well. Now, that being said, make sure to make dua. We're in the last ten days now of Ramadan. Make dua for your brothers and sisters in Gaza who are enduring unspeakable horrors on the hands of Zionists. And so make dua for them. May Allah... provide assistance to them. And may Allah enable the Muslims globally to help them out in a material way. All right. So with that being said, what I like to do in these times when the market is basically going south or forming a bottom, which is something that we may be doing right now. What I like to do is make sure that I'm taking advantage of the time and finding opportunities that may be undervalued names that I've always wanted to be in, but couldn't get there valuation wise. And that brings me to the topic of today's live, which is Tempest AI. This is a company that has been on our radar for a while. It's actually on the PIF watch list. And going over, this is the first time I talk about it on this live. But Tempest is, I think, where medicine will eventually be. And it is relying on AI for, now AI obviously will help medical treatment from start to finish, but they are focused right now on the opportunity for AI to help with diagnostics. And so they are, so they mentioned in their investor presentation that they think the time for generative AI is now. AI is finally ready to transform healthcare and they believe that the change is going to start with diagnostics and that makes sense to me. They are focused on revolutionizing healthcare by building the leading AI-enabled diagnostics platform, which integrates data and diagnostics. Now, really, what's going to be a moat for this company and for any company that tries to do something similar is going to be the data part. The AI, it's going to be increasingly commodity-like. But the data, that is where you create a mode for yourself. And right now, Tempest is doing a really good job in expanding the the data well that it has which it is building ai applications on and this data is is also a function of the network that they have which is very robust which is another sort of layer to their mode and that is the network effects that uh they are enjoying by being one of the you know first movers in this space and establishing the connections with the sources of data that they can use for diagnostics Their platform is designed to empower physicians and researchers with data-driven actionable insights powered by vast amounts of multimodal data and advanced precision medicine to improve patients' outcomes. And so they're connected with more than sixty-five percent of all academic medical centers and more than fifty percent of oncologists in the US. This is the network effects that I was mentioning and really establishes a moat for the company. And they have more than two hundred forty petabytes of rich multimodal health care data. So they have more than nine million clinical records, including more than a million imaging records, more than a million samples sequence and uh, two hundred fifty thousand DNA and RNA profiles. So previously a doctor was just going to, you know, rely on their experience and perhaps the the hospital will would rely on its collective experience making diagnoses for different things that they see. But the I think obviously the future will be and actually the future is now this is they're actually generating revenue. This is being used right now. To look at basically all the data that we have at the same time, process it, compare it with what the patient is showing, and make a diagnosis based on that. So it's a very big step change in medical treatment. that Tempest AI is providing. And then I think that you can build off of that from diagnostics to treatment. But the most valuable thing that this company has is this well, this vast amount of data that it has, that is continuously being added to from these connected nodes in its network. with the most recent patient data. They obviously de-label the patient's data so you don't know an image who it actually belongs to because that's not important when you're diagnosing something. But What's important is, you know, what is damage and what did it turn out to be? All that information you now have access to with Tempest AI's applications. And so they have three different lines of business. They have the diagnostic testing. So they run tests and they bill insurance. or they're paid directly. They have the data business, so they can license de-identified, as we mentioned, multimodal records and then software tools to analyze and derive insights. They also have applications, so they build on top of The data that they have developing algorithmic diagnostics, such as matching patients to clinical trials or closing care gaps. So this is really, I do think that, you know, AI is the future of almost every discipline and medicine being at the top of that list. And so this is sort of an obvious example. an obvious step forward that is happening right now. If you look at their revenue, it's quite impressive, the growth that they've had. So if you go back basically only two years, they had three hundred million, just shy of three hundred million. Then twenty twenty three. I'm talking total revenue here. Twenty twenty three. They had five hundred and thirty million in twenty twenty four. They were just shy of seven hundred million. Their EBITDA, their earnings before interest tax depreciation amortization, that has improved significantly. If you go back to twenty twenty two, you can see it was negative two hundred and thirty eight million. Twenty twenty four. It was negative one hundred and four million. So they are enjoying economies of scale, which is, I think, to be expected, given the nature of their business. And they do expect, I believe, to break even on EBITDA in in twenty twenty five or have a very slightly positive EBITDA, maybe on two to two and of like five million positive EBITDA. Now, before I forget, use code Ramadan, twenty twenty five. Ramadan is in its last days. Ramadan twenty twenty five for thirty five percent off membership. So you can follow our watch list, follow our portfolios and you can take advantage of inshallah what is left of the bull run which I think there are there should be many months of bull run left here now if we go back to so all of this is good in my mind it's just a matter of the numbers so this is this is a good business the founder previous founder of Groupon a strong management team a strong alignment of incentives I understand the business model. I understand the moat. I do think that this is a very scalable business. The opportunities are extremely large. If we go with consensus estimates, so in twenty twenty five, they're expecting one point two billion. So that's an eighty percent growth rate in their revenue. Now, if you look at the estimates beyond that, and I'm just going with the consensus estimates here, I haven't done my own estimates. My own estimates for revenue may yield something different. But if you go with the consensus estimates, between twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six, thirty two percent to twenty twenty seven, sixteen percent, twenty twenty eight, eighteen percent, twenty twenty nine, sixteen percent again for the revenue growth here. They may have got it wrong. Maybe the revenue growth here is actually going to be larger. But if you use the terminal growth rate of three percent, four percent or five percent. Right. So we want to use base case and bull case and use the weighted average cost of capital, eight percent, ten percent and twelve percent. So these are different assumptions that are going to yield different in our discounted cash flows. They're going to yield different share prices. You have basically the most bearish case or share price would be something on the order of fourteen dollars and fifty cents. Now, I don't agree with that, but that's just a range. So I think it's. It's wrong. Right now, the stock is trading at fifty one dollars. If you look at the most optimistic, which is the terminal growth rate of five percent and the weighted average cost of capital being eight percent, the share price would be around fifty one dollars, which is where it is right now. So I'm looking for an entry point that is that is a bit more attractive than where we are right now. That is, unless my. my forecast for the revenue for this company changes. And so this is a company that I'm going to be following very closely. I like the company. I like everything about the company. I just would like a bit more cushion, a bit more margin of error for myself before I put money into it. Now, with that being said, We'll take some questions and then we'll let you enjoy your weekend. Assalamu alaikum, Amir. Nice to see you. Upgraded from premium to elite. That's great, Amir. That's a very good... I take that as a signal when people upgrade because that means they've tried the service, they liked it, and so they're upgrading. So I take it as a signal even more than new customers trying out the service. So that's great to hear. What is your opinion on the Beidou RoboCaps? they are already running five hundred driverless cabs in Wuhan, China. Interesting place to start your experiments. But what has become clear, I think, is that perhaps Tesla will not have a monopoly on robotaxis. Previously, this was a possibility. But increasingly with NVIDIA getting into the game, I'm not talking about Waymo. I don't think Waymo, LiDAR, that works. That's a really bad solution. But the Chinese may come up with something. And so just like they kind of... surprised everyone with deep seek. I think it's very possible that, you know, we get a shock where, you know, some company in China somehow figured out a full self driving, or maybe they were copying Tesla or something, but they got their own version for whatever reason, they don't need Tesla. That may be the case. That being said, I think this is, you know, multi trillions of dollars in terms of, uh, potential revenue per year. And I think that even if you have the software for full self-driving, you're going to still need a fleet of cars, physical cars out there that can run your software, that have the parts to run your software and do the full self-driving. And I don't think really anyone has that. that are cars that are equipped for full self-driving other than Tesla right now. Now, this can change very quickly, obviously, or actually not very quickly because it takes a long time to produce a fleet of cars as big as what Tesla has right now that are able to do Robotaxi. So I think by end of this year, they'll have ten million cars that are able to do Robotaxi on the road. And so that's a network that is very hard to manufacture and put out in the world and then equip with the software that's needed for full self-driving. So it's still a very moaty business, but maybe there's a number two and a number three there. And so maybe not all of the revenues from her would actually go to Tesla. But I do think that the winner will take most. And I still think Tesla is positioned to be the winner here. I mean, you're talking about five hundred driverless cabs. I'm talking about something on the order of ten million cars that are able to be driverless. Hey, I'm Dr. Khaled Ozan. I see you. So I'm the one. Bro, is it? Is it possible to make one percent profit daily without using leverage in the stock market? No, it's not possible to make one percent daily is a crazy number because, you know, when you compound that, you end up with thousands of percent. You'll end up being like the richest man in the world and a few months so um no I don't think it's possible to do one percent daily uh but I and I don't think it's possible to um to reliably produce a profit from day trading because they don't know what's going to happen. Every day, something unexpected happens that's impossible to predict. But I do think it's possible to beat the market. And I think it's possible to beat the market consistently or more times than not, I should say, over longer periods of time. But if you're trying to get rich quick through investing, then you're going to end up wrecking yourself. So you have to be patient. with investing. And that's really the key thing that will determine your success. On a short time horizon, stocks are extremely risky. On a longer time horizon, if you know what you're doing, they become less and less risky the longer your time horizon. So definitely long time horizon and focus on fundamentals. Don't try to day trade stocks That's how a lot of people get wrecked. Do you call this an easy money or hard? For Tempest AI, I think it could be easy money. Their margins, if you look at their gross margins, it's around fifty percent. So not great. Not where I want them to be. I like eighty, ninety percent for gross margins. But I think it can become an easy money business. As it scales. Certainly. Yeah. Is day trading even halal? I have a video on day trading. Check that out. Do you prefer high dividend growth stocks. Over high dividend yielders? What do you mean by. What's the distinction there? Are you talking about. bonds with the yielders or are you talking about stocks still in terms of between high dividend stocks and high growth stocks typically high dividend stocks end up having like very high risk profile and so they're not even in contention and I do think high growth stocks outperform dividend stocks generally I think if you're looking for Less volatility, dividend stocks are the way to go. If you're looking for growth, growth stocks are the way to go. Hopefully this was useful. Leave a like if you haven't already. Become a PIF member if you aren't already. Link to do so is in the description as well as the code. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Enjoy your weekend. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.