
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Breakout?
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Breakout?
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro
- Stock Market & Crypto Rally—Breakout Confirmed?
- Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch ($92K Resistance)
- AI & Robotics: The Greatest Economic Revolution?
- Ethereum’s Decline—Is It Overvalued?
- Stablecoin Market Cap Hits Record—Bullish for Crypto?
- Q&A: Dogecoin ETF, Tariffs vs Rate Cuts
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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well it does look like we got a bit of a breakout today in the markets markets across the board were pretty green if we're looking at the dow jones it was up one point four percent the s p was up one point seven six percent the nasdaq was up more than two percent the russell was up close to two and a half percent a great day for that index and looking at the uh tesla weekly chart, it does appear that we had essentially eight weeks, a record eight weeks of down downward movement for the stock and then we had a two weeks of essentially stabilization here where a bottom of around two twenty was tested and that floor has held up and now we are up in a big way today More than ten percent on Tesla. So up close to twelve percent. So perhaps we've established a bottom on that name. And there is some we can resume our upward trajectory here. So good news on that front. Bitdeer is up sixteen percent. Bitdeer happens fast, as I mentioned today on our X account. you know if you if you blink you'll miss it typically stocks use the stairs going up and the elevator going down well this is a stock that uses the elevator in both directions ios energy was up seven point five five percent clsk was up eighteen percent I did get some uh requests for an analysis of clsk uh perhaps we'll revisit it again but it is up eighteen percent but it's only at eight dollars uh per share if you recall when we sold it was closer to twenty per share so still way off the highs and at one point it was close to twice as high in terms of a share price as iris energy is now iris energy and clsk are basically one dollar apart uh gold continues to maintain its level above three thousand bitcoin is at eighty eight thousand and uh solana is at a hundred and forty one whereas dogecoin is at eighteen cents I think uh bitcoin in order for us to kind of put this dip behind us. We'll need to see it break the ninety one ninety two thousand mark. That was previously support. And now I look at it as resistance. If we break above the ninety two thousand dollar mark, I think that we can put this particular dip behind us. And that brings us to the topic of today, which is breakout. And do we actually have a breakout now? Let's look at some of the what's going on in the market basically, and form our opinion. And we'll look at basically the fundamentals, primarily looking at Bitcoin and some other things to see where the next leg may be. This may be good, it may be bad, depending on your perspective, but right now we're at a record level of aggregate asset allocation to equities in the United States. So if you look at financial asset allocation across households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors, The equities is close to a fifty one percent. And if you look at this chart, it's very close to where it was before the dot com bubble. I do think this time around is different because this time around we are experiencing what I think is perhaps the greatest revolution in the history of economics. And that is artificial intelligence. I mean, previously, all economic thought, all economic theory was systems of economics were all built on the presumption that labor was limited. And with the advent of humanoid robots, it may be the case that within a few years here, labor becomes more and more unlimited. And so that's going to have a lot of impacts on everything. It may bring about the end of times, but it may usher in an age of abundance. And if you're in the right names, I think you can really benefit from the transition that is happening, the revolution that is happening with regards to artificial intelligence and robotics. Now, this is an interesting story, which has been making the rounds. So this man, Josh Mandel, he actually worked for Solomon Brothers. He, back in November, said that on March fourteenth, he's calling a price for Bitcoin of exactly eighty four thousand. On Pi Day, that is. March fourteenth and so he Nailed it March fourteenth. It was exactly eighty four thousand at one point and so what's exciting about this is that this person who you know a few months prior nailed the exact price of Bitcoin on a day in the future predicts that Bitcoin will get to four hundred and forty thousand in twenty twenty five. So if you thought that my prediction of two hundred thousand in twenty twenty five was aggressive, He thinks four hundred and forty four thousand. And in fact, when you look at some of the things that are happening worldwide and perhaps the loss of confidence in some systems, alliances, previous world order that has held since World War Two, when you look at the doubt that has befallen these things that we took for granted for the last close to a hundred years. then the argument for using something like Bitcoin as a safe haven, and we're already seeing this pan out in traditional safe haven asset, which is gold. The argument for using something like Bitcoin becomes extremely strong. So who knows? All I know is that this is a pretty nice dose of hopium for those who are looking for one. By the way, would be remiss not to mention we're in the final days here of ramadan I hope you're taking advantage and with the final days of ramadan we're in the final days of our uh thirty five percent off offering for pif membership I really think that we're gonna have a strong twenty twenty five A lot of money is to be made. And I think PIF membership will pay for itself many times over. So check it out. Link to become a member is in the description. Now, one of the things that a PIF membership can help you do is avoid the losers. Well, at least that's what Alhamdulillah we have been able to do in many instances in the past, including Ethereum. which Ethereum is now down ninety five percent from the all time high in Q four of twenty twenty one in terms of quarterly transaction fee revenue generated. So I think this is a leading indicator for what is going to happen to this chain moving forward. Eventually, if this trend continues, this chain is going to just die. there is no justification for a multi, you know, a hundred billion dollar chain that produces revenue. That's that is, you know, in the single digit, sometimes in the hundreds of thousands in a day. So you have, a very big discrepancy here in valuation between the amount of cash that this blockchain is actually producing and what is being valued at. I understand that there's a There's a scarcity element to tokens that drives price as well. I understand that, but still at the bottom line is you have to be producing something useful. You have to have some utility in order to maintain your value over time. And when the fees are so low that they're being generated from a particular chain, that kind of indicates that the utility that is being had by this blockchain is quite limited. So buyer beware is all I'll say. Now, something very bullish about crypto and leads me to believe that perhaps this breakout is more than just a single day move. The stablecoin market cap And remember, if you're moving from fiat to investing in crypto, the medium term step is you buy stable coins. So you move your US dollars to something like Tether or some other stable coin, and then you buy the crypto that you want. Well, the stable coin market cap has now reached an all time high, surpassing two hundred and twenty billion. And this could be a lot of investors positioning themselves for what they think is going to be a bull run in crypto. And otherwise, they wouldn't put their money in stable coins because stable coins do hold a risk to them. I mean, it's possible that a stable coin is not stable. So it's possible that it de-pegs from whatever it's pegged to. Yeah. typically pegged to a dollar. So if the stablecoin de-pegs, and this has happened before, investors are holding that risk when they're putting their money in stablecoins. So they would only be doing that if they had use for stablecoins, which is to buy crypto. So this is a very bullish sign, I believe, and could fuel a pretty big pump in crypto that is coming up. There's also a lot of signs, you know, pick the headline that you want, but there's a lot of signs that Bitcoin, crypto in general, is getting more mainstream adoption and acceptance. If you look at a country like Pakistan, they're looking into using their excess electricity for Bitcoin mining. The House of Doge has launched. I think this is a really clever idea. Granted, the starting amount is nothing to write home about. Ten million Dogecoins, so just over one million in Dogecoin. us dollars but the idea behind this reserve is that it will facilitate it will provide the liquidity needed for corporations businesses individuals to transact in dogecoin so I think this is really a good idea it shows that the The coin is still alive and kicking and it's still working on itself. And I think that it is indicative of the eventual utility that I see for Dogecoin, which is a means of transaction, a means of payment. and it's indicative of this in that it's not a reserve like let's say you know the bitcoin strategic reserve is basically you know you buy it you hold it you're not supposed to sell it no this is actually a reserve that is meant to be meant to provide liquidity for transactions so there's actually a real utility here and So I thought that was really cool. There's obviously a lot of catalysts for Dogecoin coming up, including the ETFs that were applied for that will likely get approval. I believe should get approval later this year. I think at latest October of this year, Dogecoin ETFs should hit the market. And perhaps that coincides with a a very strong bull market, which would be very good for Dogecoin. So again, just a reminder, only seven days left, PIF membership, become a member if you aren't already. And with that, we're going to go to questions. Would you please advise if Tempest AI has a good growth potential? So check out my, so subhanAllah, the timing was pretty good. Friday, I had a, alive on Tempest AI. I had a valuation for it, so check that out. Rashad says, what is more significant, tariff or rate cut? So I think, Rashad, that if the tariffs are somehow put into law, then they become really a problem. But as they are right now, I think that at any point in time, they could be reversed. I think a rate cut is a lot more permanent and longer term than the tariff talks, at least as of now they have been. So I would say more significant is what happens with rates. I think that, inshallah, we'll get some good news regarding tariffs. The Trump administration has indicated that there was flexibility with tariffs and they were going to give a lot of exemptions to a lot of countries. So that may really dull the impact that they have. Do you really have to bring up Ethereum? I mean, yeah, I hope everyone is able to exit Ethereum. at a price that higher than what they bought, but at the same time, you know, don't wait around too long to be exit liquidity for people at the end. All right, I'm Sam. So here, and I see you and I see you Dr. Khaled and I see a squared circle opinion on green Satoshi token. Not really familiar, but sounds like something I wouldn't be interested in. Make bit dear, big dear again. Yes, indeed. So maybe we get to You know, I really think that this is a company that, and we have it in our Tenex portfolio. I think it can Tenex. So especially with what they're doing, with the structure of their ASIC mining chips, something that really hasn't been rethought for a long time. And They're rethinking it. They have a new design for it. And they claim that they'll be able to get to five joules per terahash by the end of the year, which is more efficient than any other Bitcoin miner. By a lot, by the way. If you're like at fifteen joules per terahash right now, you're doing good. Think that most miners are striving for ten joules per terahash. But five jewels per carriage by the end of the year, that would put it on basically the bleeding edge of this technology. And if we're talking about Bitcoin being a replacement for gold and you have the most efficient Bitcoin miner, then I think that imputes a value on your company that is... That is, at least in the tens of billions, you should be able to get there, I think. So yeah, I maintain my thesis for a bit there. So now a good time to go into Doge potentially? Well, I can only say this. I don't give out. This is not financial advice. I'll tell you what I'm doing. And I can tell you that Doge is below our buy below price. So at these prices, I think it's a pretty good entry point. especially when I look at all of the things that are going well for bitcoin and you observe the correlation between bitcoin and dogecoin it fluctuates but I would say between seventy and ninety percent is the correlation But on a percentage basis, you know, when things are going well for Bitcoin, Dogecoin should go up higher on a percentage basis. When things are going south, then Dogecoin goes down more. So I think that, you know, I would not, you know, bet the farm on Dogecoin. Definitely not. Don't go overboard. That's silly. But I think a small allocation makes sense. And so our reasonable allocation makes sense. So hopefully that is useful. And make sure to leave a like if you enjoyed this live. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.