The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Portfolio Update 🌟

β€’ Rakaan Kayali

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Portfolio Update 🌟

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Market Overview & Sentiment
  • Stock Performance Updates
  • Portfolio Adjustments Explained
  • Key Takeaways & Future Outlook
  • Final Thoughts 

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum, folks. I hope you are doing well. And Jummah Mubarak to everyone, and early Eid Mubarak to everyone as well. Congratulations on nearly completing the fast of Ramadan. Only one day left, inshallah. We had a rough week in the market. There's no two ways about it. It was a rough week. And if you see these weekly candles that I'm displaying on the screen here with regards to the NASDAQ, it's been a rough few weeks, actually. So we peaked mid-February, and we've basically been going down ever since. We peaked close to twenty two thousand. We're now at nineteen thousand. So this has been a rough week for investors and a rough few weeks for investors. But what I like to do and what I like to remind PIF members all the time is to remember the accepted wisdom that we always repeat to ourselves, which is you need to be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy. And the problem with this is that people accept this, and it certainly sounds right if you're trying to make money in the market. However, when the market turns fearful, when sentiment turns fearful, the tendency is for investors, even though they know about this general rule of thumb, The general disposition of investors is to be fearful along with everyone else in the market, and they end up not acting and not taking advantage of the opportunities. So my approach to this is to not just talk to talk, but to walk the walk to actually have the insight to nibble on the positions that I have highest conviction in despite the sentiment being overall very negative now looking at and in this live today's live I'm going to cover three positions that we have in our portfolio obviously if you want to have access to our master portfolio, then become a member. Thirty five percent off using the coupon that's in the description. It expires the last day of Eid. So the last day of Eid, this coupon will no longer be available. And so take advantage of that. I really think now is the time to be. To approach investing with a sense of urgency. as opposed to when things were making new all-time highs all the time. Now is the time when the expected return for your portfolio, if you're invested in the right stuff, should be highest. And the more south we go, the more opportunities there are. So I'm always on the lookout to find these opportunities. And take advantage of these times as opposed to just worrying about macro, which I think is a complete waste of time. Now, if we look at some of the positions that we talk about, MicroStrategy is actually down close to eleven percent. Tesla is down three and a half percent. Bitdeer is down close to eight percent. Iris is down six percent. NVIDIA is down one and a half percent. CleanSpark is down more than eight percent. Gold is still hovering around the thirty one hundred mark. Bitcoin has pulled back to eighty four thousand. Solana is at one twenty nine. Doge is at eighteen. And Ethereum still stinks. Sorry for those who are still holding. So let's talk about very briefly three positions that are in our portfolio. Now, the S&P in the last five days so that we do a comparison. And by the way, if you're not on our newsletter, then to add yourself to our newsletter. It's free. And based on popular requests, we'll start including in our newsletter how our portfolio did in percentage terms and maybe like big movers, big losers in our portfolios as well. Now, the S&P was down two point four percent in the past five trading days. If you look at the colored map of positions in stocks, then for the last five days, you can see there's a general skew of red in technology and consumer and communication services. There's more green in corners like consumer defensive. Even industrials is skewing red. Utilities being a defensive area of investment, utilities and energy are actually skewing green. But the main characters of the rally that we experienced in the last two years or so are deep in the red, and that's causing investors to amplify the sense of panic that they feel. And I I don't think it's unfounded it's not coming out of the blue the fact of the matter is we're looking at a setup that especially with today's pce numbers which came out hotter than expected we're looking at the set at a setup that may resemble something a lot like stagflation where you have a stagnating economy and you have inflation that's stubbornly high now if we're talking about where we are in terms of inflation On a yearly basis, we're at two point eight percent for the PCE measure. So that's not terrible, I don't think. But it is higher than the two point six that was expected and certainly higher than the two percent that the Fed targets. And if you look at the inflation expectations, you can see here in March, this is the graph on the on the right. In March, the inflation expectations among consumers. Really jumped. dramatically, and consumer sentiment dropped as well. So people are spending less, they expect more inflation, stagflation, not really good for the markets. Now, if you look at Tesla, surprisingly, it was up two percent in the last five trading days. This is one of our major positions in our portfolio. And why was it up or why was it a lot more resilient than almost all of the other car companies? Well, one big reason for that is that Trump decided he needed more tariffs and the world needed more tariffs. That was their thing to do. And so he said, he imposed a twenty five percent tariff on all cars that are not made in the United States. Now, lo and behold, Tesla is actually the only major car manufacturer in the united states that is producing a hundred percent basically of its cars in the united states uh if you look at something like ford which is in second place seventy seven percent are made in the united states uh stellantis fifty seven percent nissan fifty two percent a volkswagen only twenty one percent is made in the united states Apologies. So because of this, Tesla is best positioned, I think, to deal with these tariffs. That being said, there has been some considerable brand damage to Tesla. People are associating Tesla with Elon Musk and Elon Musk's antics have become increasingly repulsive and Although, you know, he is, I think, doing a lot of good through Doge and eliminating the waste there. But obviously he's rubbing a lot of people the wrong way. And so this brand damage, I've seen many instances in the past where this type of brand damage is recovered from. So I do think that it is, to use the Fed's word, Oh, Jerome Powell's word, transitory. But it is something serious that needs to be addressed in a serious way. It needs to be addressed in a calm way. It needs to be addressed in a sort of very point-by-point way so that people can separate Tesla from Elon Musk and point out what Tesla is in the business of, what its impact has been, And I think its impact has been largely positive. And the fact that this impact, the businesses that they are in, in no way are, you know, destroying the world or, you know, some of the other things that perhaps it is accused of. But this definitely needs to be addressed. I do think it can be, you know, worked out of and therefore this dip in price is something that is something that maybe a big opportunity really, but it is something that needs to be addressed in a serious way. All right, so the next stock, which is the persistent problem child, in our portfolio, which is Piedmont Lithium. This is a lithium company that's based in the United States. And it is one of the few companies that does its mining and processing oil in North America. And I think it has, it is in a, first of all, the valuation is insanely good. in my estimation, obviously what is keeping it back before the recent talk about tariffs was the fact that lithium prices had tanked. But I actually think, and then when the talk of tariffs came and the market fell, well, Piedmont fell with it. And so now we're at valuations, which I think are extremely attractive values. And I do think that lithium will recover in price, especially considering there may be a very accessible catalyst through some sort of prioritization or the benefit that is given to companies that operate primarily in the United States and North America. So if you look at the talk about world's critical minerals, the talk has always been about, Hey, China controls a lot of them. We need to bring a lot of the production and processing of these critical minerals back on shore. Well, Piedmont lithium does this for you. And if something like a tear would be implemented on, let's say lithium, I think that would, that would bode very well for Piedmont Lithium. So we'll see. I mean, even if something like that, even if a catalyst like that doesn't happen, I still think that the lithium price should recover in a substantial way. As, you know, we get through this stagflation scare and we work through it, I think that lithium prices will recover in a big way. And the valuation, if you do a DCF for this company, is just extremely high. extremely attractive at these prices again not financial advice but I'm just thinking out loud for your entertainment now another company that has actually been a star in our portfolio has been novartis and this is a company that really has managed to transform itself it It spun off a legacy business not too long ago. And it kind of transformed itself into a really high growth, research-oriented pharmaceutical company. Their earnings that they released in January were stellar. They beat estimates. And they keep like every week or two, you'll get another... positive news item from Novartis regarding something that FDA approved or some other drug that has entered their pipeline. So these are just, this is just a very well run company and it's offering a dividend yield of three point four, four percent, which I think is quite good at these prices. And so. Even in the midst of all this turmoil, you can still find some bright spots in the market. And as I mentioned, Novartis is a business that is now being run as almost even though it's a very large business and very large company, it's being run as a almost like a startup in pharmaceuticals. And so it has this big focus on increasing the pipeline, so increasing shots on goal for its pharmaceutical business, a big focus on research and development. And all the while, what makes it kind of unique is that unlike the startups that are in the pharmaceutical space, Novartis actually has a lot of cashflow coming in from existing businesses that it can support itself. And so it maintains a very healthy balance sheet. So this is a company that the more experience I have with it and the more I learn about it, the more I kind of like it and perhaps we'll increase our stake here. I honestly think our dividend portfolio is stellar. The names that we have right now are amazing. And there's one other name that is on my short list that I may add, but it's tough to miss, I think, with the prices that we're being offered right now and the quality companies that we have in our watch list, in our portfolio. It's just a matter of, can you weather the volatility and do you have the patience to wait this out? If you do, I think you'll do well. And April second is coming up next week and we'll have a lot to learn about what happens with tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs are set to go in place April second. So we're seeing some mixed signaling from the white house. You know, sometimes they're very hawkish, sometimes they're kind of dovish and and willing to make some deals. We're also seeing some flexibility on Europe's side. So we'll see what actually happens, what transpires between now and April second, and whether or not some substantial deals can be made. Obviously there will be tariffs, but there may be a lot of carve outs and things that help improve the market's mood generally, because it can't really get worse than its mood right now. And we also have inflation numbers coming out next month. And so I personally think that We may get actually a cooler inflation reading next month. Certainly, if you look at true inflation, that's what that tells us. But again, this is not something that I am necessarily hinging my buy and sell decisions on. I am hinging them on finding the best companies and making sure that I invest in them at valuations that are reasonable. that support an aggressive upside target. Now, with that being said, as I work through this live and try not to sniffle too much in the microphone, with that being said, I would be remiss not to leave off on this final reminder I shouldn't say final reminder. I may go live Monday and Tuesday, but there's four days left basically for this offer. If you'd like to become a PIF member, I think it'll pay off, inshallah, many times over. We have some pretty positive reviews. You can check them out on the pricing page to see other people's experiences. Alhamdulillah, it's something that we've managed to grow and We've become a really solid group of friends, basically, halal conscious investor friends. And if you're a halal conscious investor, a quality person, we'd love for you to join us, inshallah. So with that being said, let's go to questions. Zaki, I actually read your comment before I went live. And yes, of course, I actually sent the difference to you before I went live. So you should get that in like two to three days. I think that's business days. So it may take till mid next week. Um, Hamid says, just found out the news updates for our stocks on the PIF website makes it easier to be updated. Thanks a lot. Well, it's my pleasure, Mohammed, and we will attempt to constantly bring about more and more improvements, uh, so that you get more and more value. Look, man, I see you. I'd Mubarak. Should we buy Tempest at forty seven or should we wait? I think it's probably a decent entry point. It's not below our buy price, as you know, but it's very close. So it's a decent entry point, I think. Assalamu alaikum, Zuhair. Nice to see you. Mashallah, we get discount on Jannah entry, discount in the markets, and discount on PIF memberships. Yeah, discounts all around, brothers and Zuhair. Abdul says, assalamu alaikum. Hope the last night of Ramadan brings peace and blessings on everyone. Amin Ya Rab. And especially the people of Gaza. I'm very optimistic about the future of our Ummah. We obviously had the big victory in Syria and we just had another victory and that's less talked about, but in Sudan, big victory there. And inshallah, you know, more and more Muslim countries are liberating themselves. And obviously I think that, you know, removing a dictatorial regime is one thing. It's very hard. But then, you know, building after that, building strong institutions, building strong countries, that's really requires, you know, constant effort. But alhamdulillah, we've entered that phase in many places in the Muslim world. And I'm very optimistic that the rest of the Muslim world will liberate itself as well. And I really think that, you know, we'll put ourselves in a very different position than what we found ourselves in when we were younger. So all this normalization of killing of Muslims and infringing on their rights and their countries and all of that normalization of that stuff, I think is going to stop in our lifetime. We'll see that shift, inshallah. Because I think a lot of Muslim countries have got the right idea A lot of Muslim peoples have got the right idea. So I'm very optimistic about that. And I will absolutely start investing more and more into countries like Turkey, like Syria. And inshallah, the PIA family will be with me when we do that, inshallah. Abdul says, I am out of stocks at the moment. Prefer to stay in Bitcoin and gold. My risk positions are between Doge, silver, and platinum. I hope it works out for you. I will say just generally that typically the best days in the market happen after days like today. So just, you know, something to keep in mind, I would never go out entirely, but you know, to each his own. And I will say that the, the names that you have are, are pretty solid names. I mean, I think, I think Bitcoin will, will more than double this year. So, you know, Assuming that the Bitcoin network stays alive and a meteor doesn't hit the earth, then liquidity projections are what they are. Then I think that if you have the majority of your portfolio in Bitcoin, it's going to be very volatile. You may have some sleepless nights, but I think you'll do well, inshallah. Again, it's risky. I wouldn't do it, but inshallah khair. Rashad says, I think the administration will walk back. Yeah, I kind of think that, you know, we're getting some signals that that may in fact be the case. I certainly don't think that, I mean, Trump has the entire weekend to think about the mess that the market is in right now. So, and I certainly don't think that he's happy about it or he's immune to caring about it as much as he may say he is. And so I don't think he wants to just completely decimate it with something, with another great idea. Assalamu alaikum. Do you have any offers for beginners, please? Well, hopefully this free content that I'm providing is actually very useful for you. And so we do make a lot of free content for people who can't afford the membership. Okay, great. Awesome. Thanks for letting me know, Zeki. I mean, what's your thoughts on April second? I think I covered that. For someone who just joined and has just seen your portfolio, which ones do you recommend? I would say dollar cost average and start with the highest conviction, highest weighted names, and then make your way down the list as you go. build you know full positions for yourself and the highest conviction names if you still want added diversification you can move your way down the list um I I really don't know your specific uh situation zeki so I can't really give you any thoughts there thoughts on gamestop well it does appear that all of the businesses that often many businesses and I think marathon actually falls on this it was a bitcoin miner but it decided to copy microstrategy businesses that aren't really profitable and not really going anywhere outdated they are saying hey microstrategy doesn't actually produce a product they just issue debt and you know buy bitcoin and so why not Why not be bums like MicroStrategy and just issue debt and convertible notes and just buy Bitcoin and sit? And that's one of the reasons why I think interest-bearing debt is prohibited in Islam is because it does create opportunities for... But I think these are false opportunities that oftentimes bite their... followers and in the behind but it creates opportunities for people to do very little work and and yet increase their wealth a lot so yeah I think that's what gamestop is doing basically gave up on its business model and figured you know what should we do with ourselves let's just do what microstrategy is doing but um it's not something I'm interested in Again, if interest being debt, debt as an instrument is a material part of your business model, then I'm not comfortable investing in the stock. That's my position on MicroStrategy. That's my position on GameStop, which actually didn't use the cash that they had to buy Bitcoin. They actually issued convertible notes. All right, guys. Love you all. Thanks for tuning in. And Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Make sure to enjoy your weekend. A'id Mubarak to all of you. I love you so much. Take care. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.