As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. I am still on the road. Don't have my usual setup. We'll be going through these slides without showing myself. But here is an image of myself and all my glory and all my handsomeness for you to feast your eyes on. Today, obviously, we're going to be talking about the markets and the three-day plunge that we've experienced that has been really an unforced error. Just the US administration deciding now is a good time to shoot ourselves in the foot for no reason at all. My theory, if I had to provide some sort of rationale for what the president is doing, is one, he loves that tension. He loves the fact that the entire world is talking about him. The entire world needs him to back off from the insanity that he has started doing. He loves that feeling. I think that's one rationale for what's going on. I think the second rationale is the fact that everyone owes him a favor right now. Everyone who wants some sort of special treatment, and he will be providing special treatment for certain people and countries, but they'll have to do him a favor. Whether it's internal actors, external actors, they're all they all are thinking about what favors can we do to the President of the United States that will provide us with some privileged treatment and get us away from these insane tariffs that he is proposing. This is really if I'm hard pressed to find a rationale for what's going on, then these reasons come to mind. And the market has been very understandably so panicking. This is how the market has performed over the last week. And as you can see, the market really hasn't been that discerning in terms of what names it's panicking about versus what names it's not panicking about. And I do think that some discernment and some differences between real differences between different businesses do exist and how they will perform under this new tariff regime assuming that this tariff regime you know goes into effect Obviously, tariffs are on goods. They're not on services. Not yet, at least. But so far, what we know about these tariffs is that they are on goods and therefore companies that are primarily providing services should perform just fine. There are also certain assets like Bitcoin, for example, it's not impacted at all by tariffs, shouldn't be impacted. In fact, I would argue there is a stronger argument to be made to buy something like Bitcoin in these times than perhaps before, because there's less competition from equities. And so when you see the lack of discernment in the market, this is a revelation. It is a revelation that There are opportunities in the market that you just have to find because the market is not really distinguishing between the prospects of different assets. It is basically punishing every area of the economy, every company. almost the same and so this should be a revelation to the intelligent investor that there are opportunities here under the surface we just have to be diligent in trying to find them obviously the fear and greed index has broken and uh we are now in I think you know many investors right maybe feeling beyond fear they may be feeling amongst the deceased but As we always say, be greedy when others are fearful, fearful when others are greedy. And it's very easy to say that in normal times. But when the stuff hits the fan and your fear and greed index is broken, then people start thinking, well, actually, it's probably not a good idea to follow that wisdom at this particular point because this time is different. And I think I've been in the market long enough to know that most of the time, this time is different crowd gets it wrong. And in fact, this time is similar, although not exactly the same, but similar to previous scares that we've been through. Now, this is not to say at all that this tariff issue is not something that warrants concern. It definitely does warrant concern. and it definitely does warrant a pullback in the prices of assets that no doubt will be impacted by the much more friction, the added friction that is in the global trade environment that was introduced by these tariffs. So there's definitely some logic here to selling certain names, but other names I think will be just fine and in fact may even benefit from this new situation. If you look at the percentage bearish of investors, we are now at levels that we haven't really seen since the great financial crisis in two thousand eight. So this we are really in historical times in terms of the overall level of bearishness in the market. And with that bearishness, there's obviously some ramifications regarding global economic activity that's bringing the price of oil down in a substantial way. Now, this may actually... have a positive impact on the monetary picture because oil tends to be a very, and the price of oil tends to be often a leading indicator for inflation. if the price of oil is dropping, then the Fed may have a bit more confidence with regards to visiting the question of cutting interest rates. It should also be said that with these tariffs, the whatever inflation is going to happen is going to be supply-side induced inflation as opposed to demand-side inflation. Therefore, the Fed shouldn't be as concerned about cutting interest rates and stimulating demand to a point that would raise inflation and raise prices because the type of inflation that may come about because of tariffs are really supply related. They're not demand related. So this bodes well for the monetary picture. And we've also gotten a lot of talk about tax cuts that may happen later this year that may also help stimulate the economy and stimulate liquidity by leaving more money with consumers that albeit will probably be spent if these tears stay in place will be spent on the higher prices that Trump's terrorist cause. So it's a very nonsensical situation here, you know, taking from one pocket and putting in the other, but in causing a whole bunch of volatility in the process, destroying the confidence of your trading partners and doing business with you and probably realigning a lot of your allies with with countries that are enemies of yours. Specifically, I think you're going to see a lot of the world moving towards a much more rational and predictable China and saying to themselves, we really can't rely on the United States to always make the rational decision, but China seems pretty steady in their policy. Maybe we should maybe we should hitch our wagon to this other horse as opposed to the erratic American one. Something that has caught my eye and perhaps the eyes of many of you is the resilience of Bitcoin. I mean, we're still at around eighty thousand here for Bitcoin. And so if you look at the past five days in terms of what uh what impact uh this chaos has had on the price of Bitcoin it's been relatively muted I mean it's down less than four percent if you compare this with the index uh so for example the S P is down ten percent in the last five days so Bitcoin is finally maturing into that asset that we can say is is not necessarily a risk on asset it may actually be taking on the attributes of something like gold where it's a safe haven for people who are trying to exit the chaos of the financial markets in periods of heightened uncertainty this is very good for bitcoin it's very good for bitcoin proxies which we own um which we have a substantial position in. And so if we're looking at the market and we're looking at going back to the point of the market not being discerning, it does appear that a lot of these Bitcoin proxies have been punished a lot more than they necessarily deserve to be punished in light of a economic environment where liquidity might flow to Bitcoin as opposed to away from it. And therefore, these Bitcoin proxies may may present some really attractive opportunities I'm talking specifically about the bitcoin miners that we have that have been you know taken a beating uh bit there being one of them taking a beating recently but I don't think their prospects have necessarily been um have uh necessarily been diminished in the last in the last few trading days if anything There may be more importance put on the Bitcoin asset and by extension Bitcoin miners that actually support the network and make Bitcoin possible. I should also point to the fact that the Wednesday absolute, you know, most economically illiterate speech I've ever heard in my life. That event presented numbers that it's kind of tough for me to actually accept as being something serious. And you probably heard the tariffs that were the column here that's entitled tariffs charged to the USA. This column was not actually tariffs. They basically took the amount of trade deficit and divided by the total exports and came out with this percentage, which in any respectable college, school of economics, would have gotten you a flunking grade if you submitted this as any type of work or anything serious. You may have been immediately kicked out of the... I mean, the better the school, the more likely it is you'll probably... been kicked out of the school altogether and maybe advised to pursue something like fine arts or basket weaving or something like that, women's studies maybe, as opposed to economics. Because this was just, I mean, imbecilic. This was moronic, the way that this was calculated. And so when you look at something like You know, Vietnam, they're claiming Vietnam is charging tariffs to the United States of ninety percent. That's just that's just imbecilic. And therefore, it's hard to take these numbers seriously. It's hard to it's hard to fathom that policy decisions will actually go. In effect, because of these numbers, based on these numbers, And so you keep hoping, I guess, as an observer, that some of these, it's not going to be as bad as this chart suggests it's going to be. Some of these numbers aren't going to be rolled back. There's got to be some administration officials that aren't total brown nosers that may be able to say, hey, man, This is, you know, in a political using political speak, but be able to tell the president, hey, this is actually moronic. Maybe we should not do this. There's got to be some intelligence. I know Peter Navarro is not one of those intelligent forces for sure. Scott Besant is definitely not one of those. These are just yes men that remind me of Gaddafi's administration. But there's got to be some sane voices in there that have any clue about anything related to the economy and business that can say this is suicide and maybe walk the president off the ledge gently. I mean, you keep hoping that this happens, but they keep disappointing with every next move that they make. That being said, as I've alluded to the The interest rate picture is likely to improve. Interest rates are likely to go down regardless. And so if you look at the May meeting, it's now in play in terms of possibly getting an interest rate cut. And that would be bullish for risk assets. If you look at the probability for a twenty five risk point cut, that's around forty percent. A day ago is thirty three percent. A week ago is fourteen percent. So the odds here have changed dramatically. And so if we get something like that, it could. kind of stem the the bleed a bit and and perhaps we get a change in sentiment in the market and perhaps we get some more same policy decisions but my advice actually my not financial advice is that now is the time to be very discerning with regards to what you hold in your portfolio and There's a lot of names that should fare very well, even in this new environment. And they're probably presenting prices right now that you're going to look at twelve months from now and wish you had an opportunity to buy again at these prices. And so it's important not to get swept up in the panic. I do believe that in terms of the drop, And certainly the extent of it and the speed of it, the worst is probably behind us. We may grind lower for the next week or two. That's possible. But I think the dramatic move in the market is now behind us. And I do think that there are a lot of catalysts to look forward to. Hopefully some deals get done. Liquidity picture should improve. Some tax cuts will help us out. And then focusing on quality names as opposed to just you know, spray and pray. Focusing on quality names, I think your future self will thank you. So with that being said, let's go to questions very quickly. Salam Zuhair, nice to see you. Salamat Ashad, nice to see you. It's my pleasure. Salam Zuhair. Salam Niznaz. May Allah make it easy for all of us. Ameen. And, you know, honestly, to put things in perspective, I always like to do this. I think this is a good mental exercise. If you think this is tough, think about the people in Gaza and what they're going through. So this is nothing compared to what they're having to endure. So may Allah help them out and definitely encourage everyone to keep them in your prayers. marvel is not something that I've looked at any time recently a few of our picks rebounded later in the day I mean there's a lot I mean the volatility is going to be off the chart I actually think that probably get a a small rebound tomorrow and maybe then we grind lower wednesday thursday if I had to guess that's unless we get some news event But as you know, today there was a rumor that there was going to be a ninety day pause on the tariffs. And by the way, this is one of the reasons why the market is as volatile as it is, is that this is this is completely the the work of one person. And it's not something like we had to go through. It's just something that someone decided they were going to put the economy through. They were going to put the markets through and therefore volatility is coming into play because if they change their mind, all of this goes away. If they change their mind, all of this goes away. It's not like know the mortgage crisis where you had a bunch of debt that needed to be you know written off it's not like covid where you have this you know new pandemic that you need to find a solution for this is completely self self-induced it's not something we had to go through um the just the president decided this This was something he was going to put the markets through. And therefore, if he decides to back off from it, then all of this goes away and we have a V-shaped recovery. And that's why markets are so volatile. We had a rumor today that there was going to be a ninety day pause on tariffs. White House came out and said, no, we're not that we're not that sane. We're actually we're actually as insane as advertised and we're going to do what we said we're going to do. uh looks like jay powell will play hardball do you think he will drop interest rates I don't know I mean the market is pricing in as you saw a close to forty percent chance that we may get some cut in may so I actually think that this percentage is probably you know probably close to reality Do I think the tariffs are permanent or do you think market donor pressure will force them? I mean, I keep thinking that some sane voices are going to hold the administration back, but this hasn't materialized yet. I mean, if we want to believe that we live in a rational world, then these tariffs will be rolled back, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm not depending on them to be rolled back in any of the investment decisions that we make. I think the things that we buy will do well, tariffs or not. Do you think the U.S. trade deficit is actually an existential crisis for the U.S.? So here's the thing. Trade deficits are not what they may sound like to some people. they're not inherently bad I have a trade deficit with my supermarket I buy a lot more from the supermarket than they buy from me does that mean I'm in bad financial situation. Does that does that mean I should go to the supermarket and say, hey, I'm buying a lot more than you're buying from me. I'm going and therefore I'm going to impose a forty percent tax on myself every time I buy from you anything that's asinine. This is moronic. It's it's the height of imbecility. And. And the fact that we're even discussing these ideas. Is is, you know, I partly blame the Democrats because they've put such a weak candidate in front of Trump, Kamala Harris, who is. You know, probably the worst candidate I've ever seen in my lifetime um and so basically handed the election to trump but the fact that we're talking about these matters and and having to address them in a serious tone when this is just you know settled science it's we've already experimented with tariffs many times is um is oh you know it's it's unfortunate this is this is not an experiment that needs to be had we already know the answer to this experiment we know the result and it's not good you don't want Italians making Swiss watches and the Swiss making pasta. That doesn't make any sense. Different countries are good at different things. And therefore, it makes sense for different countries to specialize in different things. And the United States has been very good at software and building companies like Google and Microsoft and things that don't necessarily show up in trade deficits calculations. And it's the richest country in the world in terms of size of the economy. And so the system was working in the United States favor. The fact that we don't make as many sneakers as Vietnam does and we buy our sneakers from Vietnam shouldn't motivate us to throw that away and start bringing sneaker factories into the United States. That's not going to solve anything. So this is just. You know, this is just La La Land territory that we're in, but we'll get out of it inshallah. Would you change anything in your strategy in investing with current crisis? I think that you want to emphasize cash flows. So you want to stay away from companies that are many years into the future to get positive cash flows. And You want to definitely, if you're going to make some money in this market, you got to have a longer term outlook. If you're in it for the short term, it's going to be a bumpy ride. But if you have a longer term outlook, you'll be able to identify some really good opportunities, pick them up at a discount. This has really been our strategy all along. I honestly you know can't think of a portfolio holding that will nef necessarily be particularly devastated by these tariffs I think they'll all do well high quality managements cash flow positive very innovative high margins and so I think we should be good inshallah All right, guys. Thank you very much. I promised my family I wasn't going to go live while we were on this trip. But obviously, the situation is what it is. And I think a lot of investors are panicked. So I just wanted to hopefully ease some of their panic and provide a a source of comfort uh for them and uh obviously I'm not saying things in order to comfort people I'm saying things because I actually believe them and hopefully that brings you comfort and um yeah if you enjoyed this live leave a like become a pif member if you aren't and until next time make sure to take care of yourself assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you