As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. And it looks like we were fooled yet again into believing the current US administration has a plan or is dead set in its ways or actually is going to stay on a certain position for longer than a week. The fact of the matter is this US administration is changing its mind based on the last piece of data that it sees. If it's stubborn, it will hold the same position for multiple days, but not more than that. And obviously, at the end of everything, They will make it, or at least for the people that believe them, they will try to market their actions as all being part of the plan from the get-go. The fact of the matter is this administration has no idea what it's doing. It is completely out of control. They are playing with fire. They've tanked the market. to levels and in a speed that we really haven't seen before and completely manufactured a crisis. And I think the overwhelming negative impacts of its policies caused Trump to cave today, announcing a ninety day tariff pause. on all countries except for China. So let's dig a bit deeper and see what exactly happened. And so we started today with really peak pessimism. Goldman Sachs was saying Brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads, a recession. Everything's going to hell in a handbasket. Hold on to your hats, basically. And then we get this Trump post basically saying, hey, you know all the data that's telling you the world is coming to an end? Now is a great time to buy, actually. And we actually saw something that... The one rationale for the U.S. administration's actions were that, hey, maybe they're actually trying to lower rates so that when the nine trillion odd number of loans need to be refinanced, In the second half of twenty twenty five, we get a lower rate on our refinancing and therefore we reduce our interest burden. And so that will make the actions of the current administration make sense. But lo and behold, the yields started rising. And yields rising means that people are selling their bonds. Now, there are a number of theories into why this was happening. Some may think that Perhaps some leveraged traders were caught offside and they were forced to sell. And perhaps it was the Chinese dumping their U.S. bonds on the market, selling in order to negate that one goal that the U.S. administration may have had, which was to lower interest rates. and and this was basically the final straw in my assessment this was basically the final positive that the u.s administration could hold on to in order to justify the absolute crazy path that it took and the tanking of the market tanking of the economy the u.s economy was was in a good shape before this tariff talk. I mean, unemployment was relatively low, earnings were relatively strong. We were still the basically envy of the world in terms of technology, in terms of companies, in terms of innovation. And for some reason, the US administration said that, oh, what has been going on with the economy cannot persist. We have to make a change. The old way is not going to work anymore. There are so many problems. When you look at the economy, actually, we were doing very well. There were no big structural problems that needed to be solved. The big structural problem that the US government was facing was related to debt, was related to spending more than we made. This was not a GDP problem. We had the highest GDP in the world and we were the richest country in the world. This was not an income problem. It was an expenses problem. We needed to reduce expenses. And instead of focusing on that, the U.S. administration basically said, you know what, let's reduce income. And that's exactly what tariffs would have done. Let's reduce income and maybe that's somehow going to solve our problem. And that, in fact, is going to make our problems much worse. The one thing we had going for us was the fact that the income of the country was actually quite strong. And so the US treasury yield started climbing. And I think the administration thought to itself, okay, that's basically the last straw. We didn't think the market was going to tank as hard as it did. Any sort of hope for manufacturing, specifically manufacturing jobs returning to the United States would take years to materialize. U.S. Treasury yields are rising. So why exactly are we doing what we're doing? There's no reason whatsoever. And so I believe that this calculus caused the change in course. And we had basically the second biggest gain in NASDAQ history, single daily gain in NASDAQ history. and we were up twelve percent. The Nasdaq was up twelve percent. And I mentioned this in a previous live. I said, you know, this could be a V-shaped recovery considering. This is completely manmade and specifically one man made this crisis. It's not like the coronavirus where you had to actually, you know, get through a pandemic. It's not like the mortgage crisis where you had to deal with a bunch of junk loans. This was completely man-made, manufactured crisis that would go away if that man changed his mind. And it does appear that, at least for today, we saw the nature of this problem manifest itself and how quickly it reversed. And if you look at this... If you look at specifics, you had Tesla up twenty percent today. Amazon was up ten percent. Apple was up fifteen percent and video is up seventeen and a half percent. Just green across the board, a total reversal of the story that we saw before. Now, when things are bad, I like to tell you guys it's not as bad as perhaps it appears on the surface. When things are good, I want to tell you guys that it's not perhaps as good as it appears on the surface so that we keep a level head and we don't get too excited or too down on ourselves. If you look at the probability of a rate cut in May, That has dropped to around twenty percent when it was around sixty percent yesterday. Now, the good news is that with this administration, these things can change at any moment. Any tweet can flip this percentage on its head and all of a sudden May is in play again. But now it appears that the market is pricing out May in terms of probabilities for a rate cut. That is one catalyst that we were looking forward to. We're probably going to have, I would say, to maybe three rate cuts this year, but they'll probably come later in the year. Obviously, predicting what's going to happen tomorrow is very challenging considering the erratic nature of this administration. But that's how we see things right now. And what you can be sure of is that there is a group of people that regardless of what the Trump administration does, they're going to be behind him. You know, if he's adding tariffs. They're arguing this is going to create jobs if he's removing tariffs. Oh, hey, this is the art of the deal. Adding tariffs again, this is create jobs, removing tariffs, art of the deal. So there's a contingent of Americans that are just behind this president, regardless of anything. And this gives him leeway to be erratic. And now he's arguing, oh, well, you know, we're making amazing deals with all these countries that are calling us, that are trying to, you know, get the tariffs lowered on them. And, you know, from what I know about business, you're not... It's not really a good policy to be bragging about how good of a deal you're getting when you're negotiating the deal. Because that's going to cause the other side to think twice about it. So I'm not really sure about... Actually, I'm pretty sure that this administration doesn't have a clue about... But regardless of anything, they will never admit that they made a mistake. That's for sure. And they will continue to flip-flop because they know that there's a contingent of people that are just going to follow them blindly regardless of anything. As investors, what we can do, what I try to emphasize all the time is to just tune out the noise, focus on the fundamentals of the things that you're buying, and eventually the macro will solve itself. It may seem like the sky is falling, may seem like there's no tomorrow, but eventually macro will solve itself. And what you'll end up with is the merits of the assets themselves that you're invested in take opportunities dips like we saw as opportunities to nibble on your favorite names and don't be and don't be spooked when the headlines look terrible we'll have a bunch of We'll have a bunch of close calls like we got today in the future, especially with this Trump administration. And so it's just important to expect it so that, you know, when it happens, you're not too shaken by it and state a course with regards to your plan, dollar cost average, maybe increase your dollar cost average buy-in when on down days, decrease on up days, but stick to the plan, and eventually, inshallah, macro will solve itself. So with that being said, let's go to questions. Assalamu alaikum, A and Yahya and Zuhair. Nice to see you all. Nice to see you, Rashad. It's my pleasure. Salam Ahsan. Do you think Trump gave this pause to give a hint to China that they are ready to talk? I think Trump gave this pause because, I mean, the world was falling apart and there was nothing that he had to show for it. The market was in free fall. and rates were actually going up higher and perhaps you know china was behind those rates going higher they hold a lot of us debt and if they dump that debt they're going to cause rates to go higher and so I think you know the pressure got to trump there's a lot of people in his ears saying probably a lot of rich people that he that supported him during his campaign probably told him this doesn't make any sense. And so the tweet went out today. Now, what I know about Trump is that he always likes to be in the headlines. He always likes to have the spotlight on him, positive or negative. I think he feeds off of it. And so what you can be sure of is that if the spotlight dims a bit, on him he's going to do something to get it bright again because that's what he likes and so just be prepared there's going to be a lot of twists and turns in this u.s administration's tenure and we just have to tune out the noise focus on the individual assets that we are invested in and make sure that they are good they're cash flow positive they have smart management that is flexible they hopefully have some durable moats and they have a good vision for the future and when you do that I think you'll be fine and and have very low debt levels because that's very important to whether economic turbulence when you do that solid balance sheet good management good size addressable Market uh you'll be good inshallah CPI and PPI data tomorrow in regards to stock market Well, I don't think that it will get any – I think we should be good. I mean, there may have been – I wonder if there may have been an uptick in demand, in anticipation of the tariffs that may have driven up prices a bit. But I think the general trend for inflation is down. Certainly, if you look at things like the price of oil, that supports this thesis. And even if you look at something, another measure, which is a bit more real time, something like true inflation, that suggests that the inflation print should be good, inshallah. So we'll see. uh do you think the market movements are exaggerated due to massive amounts of leverage in the system yeah absolutely but this isn't new this is a permanent feature of the market and this is what provides people who don't use leverage an advantage because they can they're not forced sellers and they can take advantage of exaggerated pullbacks so that they can buy at reduced prices Still think two thousand two hundred thousand BTC is in the books or delayed due to this clown show. I know I actually think two thousand two hundred thousand BTC is in the books. And, you know, I think about it and I just think that the merits for Bitcoin is is actually improving, not deteriorating. I mean, now, first of all, the price of Bitcoin shouldn't be impacted at all by tariffs. They should be basically a representation of the amount of liquidity. That liquidity is increasing. And there's a clear trend there. And if you're looking at something that is sort of a safe haven that have a limited supply, can't really be manipulated. I mean, we're seeing right now in real time the Chinese manipulating their currency to make it so that it's a lot cheaper in order to offset some of the impact of tariffs. So And we saw the volatility of the dollar as of late as well. So really, I mean, I think the argument against fiat currency is becoming stronger and stronger. The argument for a safe haven like Bitcoin is becoming stronger and stronger. And therefore, I actually do think two hundred thousand is still In the cards for this year. And it will probably happen fast. That is, the appreciation will happen fast. We'll chop a lot, I'm sure. But the appreciation will happen fast. So I hope you're doing well. Lithium still asleep. Yeah, that's kind of weird that there's so much talk about. I mean, number one producer of lithium in the world is China. So there's so much talk about, you know, the tariffs with China and. and potential inflation that that causes. And we haven't really seen a rebound in lithium prices. This is probably a function of the anticipated recession that a lot of commenters saw because of these tariffs and therefore lower demand and therefore even with the impact of tariffs, perhaps there would be lower demand for lithium. But I do think that a rebound is in the cards in short order. I think it will probably happen this year. I think most commenters on this are anticipating twenty twenty six. But actually, I think twenty twenty five is is in the cards here. I'll have an update on IRD, inshallah, for PIF members soon. It's still kind of playing out. But they did have some positive results yesterday, positive trial results yesterday. So we'll have some commentary on that. But I would ignore the, there's so much opportunity at the top of our watch list. I would kind of ignore the names at the bottom of our watch list. Because, I mean, the top of our watch list is all green. It's all buy. And so I would focus on that. So as you know, I haven't been buying IRD any time recently. Okay. Shaykh says, do you think next dip like this one far? I don't know. I don't think so. I mean, I think that probably the worst is behind us. Like I said in the last live, I think the worst is behind us in terms of sort of degree and speed of the dip. I think that's behind us. We'll see if they're able to figure out a deal with China. I do think that China is not just a country. It's the second largest economy in the world. It produces everything that we have in the United States. removing tariffs on all other countries is good, but we have to figure out something that's feasible with China, not only for the economic situation, but if trade stalls between the United States and China, that substantially increases the risk of a military conflict between the United States and China. When two countries are attached through trade and dependent on one another through trade, that dramatically decreases the risk of a military conflict between them. And we've enjoyed that. for many, many years, and I think that has been one of the reasons we haven't seen a conflict between China and the United States. If we sever this tie that is trade between us and China, this is not going to bode well for the probabilities of avoiding conflict with China, which would be catastrophic. So this still remains a big risk. And a deal has to be made here with the Chinese in order to avoid that outcome. Assalamu alaikum, brothers. So DCA and carry on. Yeah, that's generally what you'll hear from me. Not really into a lot of the commodity plays. It's just not something that I'm interested in or have unique insight in. So I just try to stay away from it. Copper seems like an obvious play, though, considering the infrastructure needs and what that means for the demand for copper. China gets a lot of their resources from Africa, hence why they are building a lot of projects in Africa. That's very true. Osama says, inshallah, bit deer will skip big deer and become big bull. Yeah, we'll see. You have to start investing all over again. What? would be top three stocks? Well, I definitely would put Tesla at the top three stocks. I mean, so Tesla is one of those where, I mean, a lot of the names you'll see me add and remove names, but Tesla is one that's kind of a permanent fixture for now. And so definitely I would put that at the top and I think that, you know, I do predict that, you know, if you have three hundred shares, you'll probably get to a million dollars in terms of the value of those three hundred shares by probably twenty thirty. So if you want to be a millionaire in the next five years, try and try and accumulate three hundred shares of Tesla if you can. Obviously not financial advice, but that's how I see things right now. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. I really appreciate you guys tuning in. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.