The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

A Perfect Pitch

Rakaan Kayali

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A Perfect Pitch 

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro & Market Conditions
  • Rising Fear & Dollar Weakness
  • Why Global Liquidity Matters
  • Bitcoin as a Store of Value
  • Bitcoin vs. Gold, Equities, and Treasuries
  • Final Thoughts & Viewer Q&A

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Folks, I don't know if I'm crazy or if the world is crazy or what's going on, but it seems to me like there is a massive mispricing in the market going on right now. An opportunity that's just laying there on the market floor that not many people are taking advantage of. First, let's take account of what the markets did today. And then I'll tell you about my thinking on that particular topic. The VIX is up today. People are nervous. Fear is at extreme levels. The ten-year is down. The dollar index is down. The dollar is weakening. I'll revisit this fact in a second. The Russell is down close to one percentage point. Dow Jones is down. Around two percentage points, S&P more than two. The Nasdaq is down more than three. So what is new under the Trump administration? Everything's down. Markets stink. But BTC still hovering around eighty four thousand. Solana is at one thirty two. Doge is at fifteen cents. Ethereum also stinks. at fifteen hundred, my condolences to Ethereum holders. I told you guys a long time ago, but hopefully that's not too big of a bag for you guys. All right, so here's the perfect pitch that I'm seeing right now coming from the market. As I mentioned, and here is another way to express it, we're at extreme fear in the market. The uncertainty around economic policy is at all-time highs. You don't really need to know what the y-axis is in this picture. You just need to observe the line going vertically upwards. We're in an extreme scenario right now. If you look at the market, everything has gone red and there are very few areas in the market that are not red and Extremely so. I mean, if you look at something like Nvidia, it's down close to seven percent. Obviously, that's related to the Trump administration banning the sale of H-twenties to China, which themselves were basically watered down in terms of their power and designed specifically for export to China. But even those have been banned. have been prohibited from export to China by this Trump administration. The dollar index is down. We're capitulating on the dollar. People are losing confidence in the dollar. It is losing its status as a reserve currency. If you're looking at the dollar as something that's going to preserve your purchasing power long term, You are in the minority. Most people right now understand the dollar is losing its status as a reserve currency, and there is probably more weakness to come just on account of all the debt that we have in the United States. And that needs to be serviced. And what is it serviced with? Well, new dollars. And what happens when you print new dollars? The price of all dollars goes down, inflation. So, or the value, purchasing power of all dollars goes down. And so this is related to the strength of the dollar versus a basket of global currencies. US dollar index is losing ground compared to those global currencies, which tells me that liquidity globally should be rising because when the dollar is down, other countries have more leeway in terms of printing their fiat currencies themselves and paying off their debt because they know they're not going to depreciate too much versus the dollar. They have some margin, some wiggle room to work with. Investors haven't been this bearish in thirty years, Bank of America poll shows. Investor sentiment regarding economic prospects is the most negative in three decades. Eighty-two percent of fund managers expect the global economy to weaken. The S&P five hundred has dropped eight point one percent this year, lagging European and Chinese benchmarks. So the most attractive equity market in the world, the US market, is Investors are very bearish on it, and they are voting with their feet. A record number of global investors are intending to cut their exposure to U.S. equities, which, again, was by far the most popular type of equity out there, U.S. equities, that is. All this to say that We also have, I should mention, a liquidity picture in the United States that should be loosening up, increasing. The June meeting for the Fed is expected to have, or the market is assigning a greater than fifty percent probability that we get a cut in June, actually close to seventy percent possibility that we get a cut in June. that means more dollars uh to be printed uh when interest rates go down and so globally we think liquidity is rising in the united states we think it's uh set to rise uh we can see the global m-two money supply and how it is progressing with time. And then we can see Bitcoin. So global M two money supply, that's that black line. We can see Bitcoin in the pink line. And you can see that over time, this chart goes back to twenty twenty three. There is a strong correlation between the price of Bitcoin and liquidity levels globally. In fact, one could argue that Bitcoin is simply a barometer of global liquidity. And so everything is pointing in one direction. Global liquidity is on the rise. And when you look at other places, where people could invest, they're not looking too hot. Most popular equities in the world, U.S. equities, have the lowest sentiment associated with them. No one knows what's going to happen to company earnings, what the economic outlook is, the questions about economic stability, The economic conditions abound and economic uncertainty is at all-time highs. And so U.S. equities aren't looking too hot right now. U.S. treasuries aren't looking too hot right now. Why do you want to lend and receive money in the future that you don't really have much confidence is going to preserve its purchasing power? And so... Treasuries, uh, we saw yields actually, uh, go up for a while and they're still at elevated levels. And in order to bring them down, um, the, the us, uh, may have to, you know, cut interest rates and that's going to cause the us dollar to lose even more of its value. So liquidity is rising globally. The prospects for US treasuries don't look too hot right now. The prospects for US equities don't look too hot right now. If you look globally, none of the major economies are doing that great. Tariffs are definitely going to impact them. And it's not like you're seeing really revolutionary companies coming out from Europe, for example. I'm not sure about the appetite or even the accessibility. two Chinese stocks that global investors have. It seems to me that that will be quite limited and not many people trust the Chinese Communist Party with their money. And therefore, all roads seem to point to stores of value that are not associated with the financial markets. Where are people going to flee with their money? We already saw gold doing quite well since the beginning of the year. Gold is at another all-time high. If you look at this chart, it says a thousand words. We're at three thousand three hundred and fifty for gold. Again, an all-time high. So that, you know, store of value is going bonkers. What other store of value can we think of, uh, that should follow? Well, it's gotta be Bitcoin. It's gotta be Bitcoin. If you look at the association or correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity, it's the strongest correlation there is this from Lynn Alden, by the way. Um, and. it shows that Bitcoin's directional alignment with global liquidity is at eighty three percent stronger than gold, which is at sixty eight percent stronger than the S&P, which is very high. But in this case, maybe that alignment isn't that strong, considering the conditions that we're in and the doubts about the economy in the United States and the policies that the administration will eventually you know, sign off on or stick to long term, if any. And so what are we left with? It seems like the only game in town that makes sense is Bitcoin. And so I really think right now we're in that lag period that happens between global liquidity moving and then Bitcoin moving. But eventually. That lag. or eventually it's going to come time for Bitcoin to start following global liquidity as we have experienced in recent years. There's no reason, I don't think, for that correlation to weaken. In fact, there's more reason for it to be extremely strong this time around. for the reasons I mentioned. And therefore, I think the prospects of making money in, you know, I don't tend to make, you know, six months predictions, but the prospects of making money on Bitcoin, buying it today at eighty four thousand in six months, that number being higher, the prospects are extremely, extremely high. And obviously if you extend out the prospects for Bitcoin are, I think very healthy. And therefore, I think this is just the perfect pitch for Bitcoin and makes sense for me, not financial advice, makes sense for me to position myself accordingly, position the PIF portfolios accordingly. And so that is the idea that I wanted to share with you today. Let's go to questions. By the way, if there's any flaw in my logic, if I've missed anything, let me know. But it seems to me that it's a pretty airtight thesis. Nice to see you. Ethereum at ten thousand, inshallah. Well, I hope it happens for you, Rashad. Abdul says, CHF is a good fiat currency to still hold in such a turbulent market. I would rather hold BTC than any fiat currency. I agree with you. If you're dealing with a fiat currency, yeah, maybe some fiats are better than others. But ultimately... Their supply is potentially infinite. The supply is subject to the whims of a group of self-interested people, unlike Bitcoin, which doesn't have that flaw. And therefore, if you're looking for a store of value, of course, you'd buy Bitcoin. Again, not financial advice. That's just how I'm thinking about it. Mahmoud says, Salam, if I have some dry powder and want to buy a position in Tesla, is it better to buy Tesla now or buy some low price stocks you have in the PIF portfolio sell later on at profit? So, you know, I have a watch list and I have conviction levels in the watch list. And so I start with the highest conviction level names. Make sure I have a full position in those highest conviction level names. And then once I do have, I think, you know, exposure that satisfies my desires, then I go down the list and start filling up my bags with those lower names. And so I would start at the top of the list. Tesla is at the top of the list. So that's how I would do it. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. If you benefited anything, leave a like. If I made you any money in PIF, leave a like. If you're optimistic about the prospects of making money in our PIF portfolio, leave a like. Leave a comment. Again, let me know if I missed anything in my thesis for Bitcoin right now and how the markets are giving it a perfect pitch. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.