assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well today is monday may fifth and the market is pretty much flat today the dow is up point two four percent s p is down point two two percent nasdaq is down point three one percent so I'm gonna call that flat and not bad considering We've been on a nine-day winning streak for the S&P, which is pretty long and pretty remarkable considering the circumstances. It does seem like the market and the economy, if we're looking at the hard data that we're getting, is very resilient and is refusing to go out without a fight. If we look at the VIX index, we're still at relatively elevated levels at twenty three. That's the uncertainty or fear index. Relatively, I say that because we're way down from the peak that we experienced after Liberation Day, which was close to fifty. We're now at twenty three. But if you look at the last twelve months, we're at excluding Liberation Day. We're basically at the highs still for that index. If we look at some of the popular names that we often look at, we did see a pullback today. Nice to see you, Rashad. Tesla is down three percent. MicroStrategy is down three percent. Bitdeer close to eight percent. CLSK, CleanSpark, that is close to eight percent down. That is Bitcoin at ninety four thousand. Doge is at seventeen cents. So with that, let's. take stock of where we are right now and uh you know some of the signals that the macro economy is giving us we'll look at the most salient points in terms of hard data and soft data so on friday we got the uh jobs report and we did add a hundred and seventy seven thousand new jobs uh which beat expectations which were around a hundred and thirty thousand and so the u.s administration took a victory lap after that data all of a sudden this isn't biden's economy And it's tough to say that this is something we can count on moving forward. There is going to be a period of very wacky numbers that are not necessarily on trend because of the tariffs, the uncertainty around tariffs and people trying to front run those tariffs. And so it's really tough to extrapolate from this data in terms of the health of the economy moving forward. If you look at consumer spending, that also grows in March. And it does appear that people are front running tariffs, expected tariffs. If you look at motor vehicles and parts, the purchases increased a lot. And one of the reasons one can expect is that if you're planning on buying something, a vehicle anytime soon this year, you're probably inclined to do it sooner rather than later because tariffs are set to increase. And so that's what we saw in terms of consumer spending. Again, you're not going to get hard data that you can extrapolate from in these circumstances because of the uncertainty and the planning ahead that is going on by companies and by consumers. Now, because of the jobs report data, because of consumer spending data, and because the Fed seems to be data driven, but that data reflects the past, it does appear that the Fed is going to make a mistake in their May meeting. And that is to keep, at least the market is pricing this in. And the mistake is that they keep interest rates as they are. And The reason I think this is a mistake is because everything, and certainly the soft data, but also just logically, the tariffs, their impact, this is going to cause a big slowdown, I think, in spending. It's going to destroy a lot of demand, and it's going to shrink company margins, profit margins. And so this means there are tough economic times ahead, unless, of course, there's a quick deal that is done. We'll talk about that later. But in light of the circumstances that we are in and the fact that inflation seems to be under control, I'll show you in a second why I think that. I really think it's a mistake not to cut interest rates in their next meeting, but the market seems pretty certain with a ninety five percent probability that indeed the Fed will not cut interest rates. I think they should cut interest rates in their meeting this week. And as I said, inflation does seem to be under control now. If you look at the true inflation measure, it's less than one point five percent. The Fed's target is two percent. So we're below that. And, you know, tariffs, obviously they will have a one time impact on prices. It's not a continuous impact. However, it does destroy demand. And so when things get more expensive, people tend to cut back on their spending. And so it could end up having a deflationary impact, not an inflationary one when all is considered. As of now, true inflation is showing us that we're at one point four or five percent. We're at four and a half percent for the level of interest rates. So I think we have a lot of margin to move here. And I don't think anyone would blame the Fed if they were to cut, you know, twenty five base points in their next meeting. But unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's what they're going to do. The markets, so now going into some of the soft data, the markets as of right now, I think are tactically greedy. I think there are some potential catalysts that they are seeing on the horizon. This doesn't mean mid-term to longer term that they are, that investors are necessarily bullish, but I think tactically investors are are getting bullish just because there are some near-term catalysts. And so we are back in greed. now one of the reasons I think sorry I didn't uh notice how fuzzy this was um but uh if you look at the consumer company this it's not your eyes that are going this is actually the image looks fuzzy but if you look at the consumer confidence index we are at lows or levels that we haven't seen in around thirteen years And this takes into account a whole bunch of factors, including income, employment prospects and just general views of the economy. And so the consumer is not that optimistic about the economy. Now, you know, sometimes the consumer is wrong about these things. But I do think that a lot of what is informing the consumer's sentiment about the future is what they're seeing in reality in terms of how their company is behaving and how they are behaving themselves with their spending habits. Now, the U.S. has approached China, and this is as of Friday, U.S. has approached China seeking talks on Trump tariffs. At least that's per the Chinese state social media. Development may be indication that China is softening on beginning negotiations. And we have seen that the U.S. president has said mentioned that he doesn't think the tariff levels will remain where they are because they are unsustainable and they should come down. The question is, when do we get a deal and how much the tariffs will be reduced by? But the more this situation drags on, I think the more damage that is done. And I don't want to scare you too much. This is, you know, it's early for Halloween. But, you know, Jim Cramer did say that there will not be a recession. So I would take that as a invitation to be cautious. And certainly this is my approach. I think that there's a lot of uncertainty. And I don't think it's. I don't think high confidence levels in either direction are justified quite yet. So I think a cautious approach is appropriate at this point in time. And I think as always, the right approach is to play the cards that the market is dealing. So when an opportunity presents itself in the market to nibble on that opportunity. But I don't think backing up the truck is necessarily the right thing to do at this particular point in time. What do I expect from FOMC? I think that the market is probably right in terms of keeping rates where they are. But we'll see. I would be pleasantly surprised if they do not. Assalamu alaikum, brother Zafar. Nice to see you. Lubna, nice to see you. Sent you an email. Okay, I'll take a look at that, Lubna. Muhammad says, Salam alaikum. With iron making headwinds in data center space, do you see potential beyond BTC? Yeah, I mean, that's a big part of the iron play. I mean, in their last update, they pretty much explicitly said that we're moving beyond BTC. They're essentially going to... carry through with their previous plans for exahash expansion but beyond that they're going to be focusing on the data center business so the answer to this question is for sure yes I do see that yes uh awesome thank you uh do hit the like button and thank you everyone uh we got our last live to more than a hundred likes as i as I was aiming for. So I really appreciate that. You guys are awesome. Rashad, if I'm JP, I will not cut just to tease the administration. Yeah. I mean, honestly, I think cutting is the right thing to do for the reasons I mentioned. I think that, yes, the economy has been resilient thus far, but it's kind of like the fool in the shower, right? So you know, the temperature may be fine and you may, you know, make the temperature a lot hotter and the temperature may remain fine for a while, but eventually you should expect, you know, hot water and, you know, prepare yourself. So I think that what the administration did was a serious headwind for the economy. And perhaps we haven't felt it yet, but it's on its way unless it changes. What do you think about Hems and Celsius? So Hems, Iftikhar, I think it's a good company. I think there's a lot of upside to it. I like the founder. But, you know, just some of the marketing, the vibe of the marketing is just something that I'm not comfortable with. And so I've abstained from... Well, we did make some money on it, but then when I became uncomfortable, I sold. With regards to Celsius, I'm not really sure how... First of all, I'm not confident that they have a durable moat as an energy drink or a group of energy drinks. But their performance has been quite good. Second of all, I'm not really sure how healthy Celsius is. And so for that reason, I haven't invested. What is the advantage of buying a Bitcoin ETF over buying BTC? The advantage is that you don't have to worry about self custody. And that's why you pay the fees. So with that, guys, do leave a like and become a PIF member if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Try not to see this tweet in your dreams or nightmares. I think inshallah we'll be fine. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.