
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Mistake Made!
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Mistake Made!
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro & Fed’s Decision to Hold Rates
- Frustration with Powell’s Lack of Foresight
- Tariffs Impacting Small Businesses
- Market Reaction and Rate Cut Odds
- Bitcoin and Gold Amid Economic Pressure
- Why Scarce Assets Will Win
- Viewer Q&A: Trump, Powell, NVIDIA vs. AMD
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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Assalamu alaikum, folks. I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, May seventh, and the Fed made the mistake that we all thought it would make, which is that it kept interest rates where they are. And listening to Jerome Powell's news conference after the decision was was very frustrating because he kept saying oh well the economy is isn't showing sign of signs of weakness so we're not going to do anything and it's like dude if you are just going to react to data after it's reported, then there's no reason for you to be employed at all. We could just program something that makes decisions on behalf of the Fed and sets monetary policy. If your sole function is to react to data, well, then an algorithm can do that. The reason why you're employed is so that you can see things before the data reports them. So you can have some foresight, some prediction about the future. So you can act soon enough and you don't wait until it's too late to make your decisions. That's why you're employed. That's the whole reason for your salary. Or else if it's just reaction to data after it's reported, an algorithm can do that. So it was pretty frustrating to listen to the Fed chair talk about, oh, well, the economy hasn't broken yet, so we're staying the course. The fact of the matter is inflation is coming down. We know that tariffs are there. They're starting to bite. What we don't know is what happens in the future regarding tariffs, whether they're adjusted downwards or not. That could happen. It could not happen. But tariffs are in place right now, and they're biting right now into the economy. You saw consumer sentiment. You saw the beginnings of cracks in the economy. And companies, a lot of them are saying, hey, we're not even going to forecast the future because there's so much uncertainty. I mean, what more do you need? Do you need an actual break for you to actually do something? So very puzzling, the position of the Fed. And They made a mistake not cutting interest rates today. They held them at four point two five percent between four point two five and four point five percent. Post-meeting statement noted recent market volatility and how that is factoring into the central bank's policy decisions. You know, again. Their mandate, they have a dual mandate, unemployment and inflation. Unemployment has to remain low. Inflation has to remain low. And so they shouldn't be taking their marching orders from market volatility. They should be looking at what is happening in the actual economy. What's happening in the actual economy is that small businesses, which are the number one employer in the United States, are going to be suffocated by these tariffs. And there needs to be some sort of counterbalance to the act of, to the impacts of terrorists. That doesn't require, you know, a very high IQ to see this coming, but they want to wait for the data, which is, as I mentioned, a fool in the shower approach where, you know, you, crank up the temperature. It doesn't change immediately. So you crank it up even more. And then when it finally comes, it's scorching hot and you have to adjust very quickly. What we know for sure is that the tariffs are going to really impact the economy. We don't really have to wait until the scorching hot water hits us in the face for us to adjust our approach. Uncertainty about economic outlook has increased further, the statement said from the Fed. Yeah, no kidding. And what's interesting is that the market is actually pricing in only a twenty one percent chance of a rate cut in June. Basically, it's saying that we have to wait until July to get a rate cut. And that's a mistake. I fully suspect that this June number is going to change. Actually, it just changed on us. It increased now, twenty four percent. So the market is still assuming that June is going to roll around and we don't get a rate cut, which would be, I think, a big mistake unless a big deal is done with China. And I don't really see that many signals that that is possible. know about to happen but who knows what the future holds uh looking at the indices today vix is down a bit treasuries are down the dollar index is basically flat uh russell dow jones s p nasdaq basically flat since the Fed did exactly what the market was expecting. At least, at least the good news is that we can put this meeting behind us. Everyone was expecting a mistake. And indeed, we got the mistake. Looking at the other positions, pretty flat. Bitcoin is at close to ninety six thousand. Doge is at seventeen cents. I really think the name of the game moving forward in the market is going to be Bitcoin. Our debt in this country is thirty seven trillion. We're running a two trillion dollar deficit. We're not in a state of war. And yet we have a military budget of north of one trillion. Who knows why? There's going to be a lot of printing coming. That's just the fact of the matter is there's just going to be a lot of printing coming. And if earnings start to compress as tariffs eat into the margins of companies, The valuations will start to compress as well. And people are going to look for an alternative to treasuries since the dollar is going to be inflated back to the Stone Age. And companies, their earnings are probably going to be under pressure. Scarce assets like Bitcoin stand to benefit a lot. We're already seeing the run up in gold. It was thirty four hundred yesterday, thirty three seventy five today. The advantage of Bitcoin is that it's basically not trying to be a cutting edge technology. It's just trying to be a store of value and it doesn't have to report earnings. And so I think it's going to suck a lot of the liquidity and a lot of the printing that happens. and other scarce assets will benefit as well position yourself accordingly uh go into questions here that's all I had to say just a bit of a rant about the the fed chair and uh amir says, would it have been better if Trump had managed to fire Powell? No, that wouldn't have been better because it's very important that the Fed is independent. It's not a political position. Yes, you may say that the Fed's decisions are politically motivated, but despite the mistake that I think the Fed is making and the lack of foresight that they're exhibiting I actually think that they're trying their best to do the right thing salam alaikum dr boss uh lubna nice to see you great I'm happy to hear it I highly thank you very much I I appreciate that um kind review lubna I really appreciate it and um Got really stellar earnings reports on our watch list holdings and on our portfolio holdings as well. Look out for updates on that. If you're a PIF member, if you're not a PIF member, make sure to become one. which is better to buy AMD or NVIDIA. I've kind of, I would say if I had to pick from an investment perspective, I think NVIDIA. Thanks, Latanya. You're too kind. I really appreciate it. All right, guys, leave a like, become a PIF member. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.