The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Vision Required

Rakaan Kayali

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Vision Required

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro & Market Recap
  • Bitdeer Earnings Summary
  • Pivot to ASIC Design
  • Sealminer: Efficiency Breakthrough
  • Total Addressable Market Analysis
  • Valuation Assumptions & Market Share
  • Diversified Revenue Streams
  • R&D Ramp-Up & Strategic Vision
  • Closing Thoughts & Community Q&AA 

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Friday, May, and I hope you had a great week. The indices ended on a positive note. They're all in green. After hours, however, we got news that Moody's downgraded the US debt. However, after our price action was negative, but I don't really think that's necessarily anything to worry about. It's not like people didn't know the United States had a debt issue. And the fact of the matter is it's very hard for the United States to default on its debt because it can print money. It's hard to default on debt when you have a money printer in your house. at your disposal. So I wouldn't really pay too much attention to the news that came out after hours. That being said, what I wanted to focus on in this live is Bitdeer's share price currently, or actually today, and the earnings. They reported earnings this week. Today, their stock was up presentation their investors presentation that they had and then also I'm going to go over a valuation for Bitdeer so should be a very valuable live inshallah if you enjoyed these lives then do leave a like and if you haven't become part of our PIF membership then do yourself a favor and become a member we are making alhamdulillah a lot of money our picks are doing very well. And I think for the average, actually, I know because I surveyed the average PIF members making multiple times what the membership costs. So Yeah, we'd love to have you as part of our community. If you look at just a quick account of crypto, Bitcoin is at one hundred and thirty thousand. I mean, we have been after the jump that we experienced. We have been consolidating, which is to be expected. Doge is at twenty two cents. All right. Let's go to Bitdeer. So. This is their investor presentation for Q-one-twenty-five. If you look at the revenue, it's down, adjusted EBITDA down. And this is because this is a company, this has been a common theme for us lately, but it's a company that is in transition. It had a business model and now it's pivoting to a different business model focused on ASICs or the Bitcoin mining equipment and Bitcoin mining rigs. And so it is right now, there are parts of its business that are basically dying out and a new part that is reemerging. So I can't really put too much emphasis on the revenue EBITDA numbers that they reported in Q. One twenty five, because I don't think it's representative of the business model that they've chosen for themselves. Although there is something about the income statement that I really like that I'd like to point your attention to. That being said, they have they have reported basically that they are on track with regards to the research and development that they are doing for their asics and the promise of a best in class bitcoin miner that gets five that only requires five joules per terahash. If you'll recall, when we were reviewing IOS Energy, we mentioned that they had the best in terms of fleet efficiency at fifteen joules required per terahash. But Bitdeer thinks because it redesigned the ASICs, they think that they can actually pull off five joules required per terahash by the end of this year. And that would really put it basically on the bleeding edge of ASIC miner technology. So that is really what I was looking for, that, okay, this is still happening. The five joules per terahash, this is still happening. Because that's the most important input into my valuation model. That is their share of the total addressable market for Bitcoin mining equipment. And so... That seems to be on track. And that was good to hear. Now, this is sort of the investor's most important slide. And it tries to address the question of a total addressable market and how big is the ASIC market really for Bitcoin miners. So it has different assumptions here. So anywhere, and by the way, this is revenue total addressable market between the years, two thousand twenty five and two thousand twenty seven. So roughly three years. and so we are looking at assumptions from seven hundred and fifty x a hash to seventeen hundred and fifty x a hash and a price per terahash between fifteen dollars and twenty five dollars and so they went I and I think these assumptions are all reasonable and they went with sort of middle of the road assumptions uh twelve hundred and fifty x a hash seventeen dollars per terahash and that comes out to potential revenue of twenty one billion, roughly twenty one billion for this market over this three year period. And it thinks that if it can grab, let's say, thirty percent market share of this market, then thirty percent of the twenty one twenty five would be six point four billion. That's what would be Bitdeer's share of the market if it were to grab thirty percent and remember I think that they may have the best miner out there by the end of this year and so I think thirty percent is is not that far-fetched especially considering the number of players in this space are few and far between I mean the biggest player I believe is bitmain now with their rigs by the way the ceo founder of Bitdeer was the co-founder of Bitmain. So he has that experience, which gives me more confidence in their ability to execute. And when you look at the technology that's their seal miner, the name of their Bitcoin miner, their seal miner, Bose, it really is shaping up to be sort of a cut above everything else. If you look at the green dots, those are the efficiency improvements of other Bitcoin miners over time. And you can see that these green dots are kind of leveling off. um the increases in efficiencies are are leveling off with big deer their miners are the orange dots you can see that the efficiency levels are actually uh you know making big strides and are kind of in a league of their own and this goes back to the fact that they've redesigned the ASICs and the Bitcoin miners from the ground up. And that enabled them to achieve efficiency levels that are just not available on the market. And you can see the level of improvement that they've been able to achieve has been quite remarkable. So the Sealminer and their pace as well. So the Sealminer A one that was released in Q three of twenty twenty four that had an efficiency of twenty one point five joules per terahash. The A two pro released in Q four twenty twenty four had efficiency between fifteen and sixteen. The expected seal miner A three in Q two of twenty twenty five has an efficiency of eleven to twelve joules per terahash and then expected in Q four twenty twenty five is the five point five to six joules per terahash. And those are the orange dots that you see. So really the execution, the technology of this company has been quite remarkable and gives some merit to their claim that know maybe we get thirty percent market share of this total addressable market all right and this is in addition to so their asics business is in addition to their bitcoin mining business which they think uh will reach forty in terms of self-hosted forty uh exahash by the end of the year And in addition to this, so they have the ASICs, they have the Bitcoin mining, they also have an AI and high performance computing play. And they are expected to have basically twenty six hundred, close to twenty seven hundred gigawatts of power by the end of twenty twenty six. They should have close to eighteen hundred by the end of twenty twenty five. So this is actually a diversified play. This is not just Bitcoin mining that we see the potential for with this company. There's also the picks and shovels of Bitcoin mining. So Bitcoin mining itself has really tough margins, but the picks and shovels basically have twenty to thirty percent margins, which are which are much better. I'm talking here about net profit, not gross. So that's much better. It's a much better business. And also what's good about it is that it's a constant business. So the miners, in order to stay relevant, you have to compete with all other miners on solving the problems of the Bitcoin network in order to mine Bitcoin. And therefore, if other miners are upgrading their fleet, and miners are constantly upgrading their mining fleets, then in order for a miner to stay relevant, they have to upgrade their fleet too. So there's constant demand for Bitcoin miners. It's never ending. Regardless, we're in a bull market, we're in a bear market. These miners have to compete in order to just stay in the game, basically. And that sort of should level out their revenue over time. And again, as I mentioned, the margins are a lot fatter with the mining rigs than Bitcoin mining itself. That's a good position to be in. And they do have diversification in terms of geography. They're not all in a single place, in a single country. They have locations in the United States, Bhutan, in Norway. So they're all over the place, which is great. Strong balance sheet. They did take advantage of higher share price in December, raised a bunch of money. And something that I love to see, and especially when you have competent management, obviously not all R and D dollars are the same. If you look at, you know, Microsoft, for example, it spends more on R and D than Tesla, but there's a lot more innovation than Tesla. Uh, but if you look at the R and D in a bit tier, for example, It tripled the expense on R&D research and development tripled between twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five. And I love to see that. That means the. The business is in fighting mode. That's what research and development. That's how I see it. It's it's and it's stock price is like a spring that's being loaded up. And the more. innovation the company produces, the more potential the stock eventually has, even if you have to go through a few quarters or even a few years where revenue numbers, income numbers may not be that flattering because there's so much being spent on research and development. So let's go to Let's go to valuation here. So going back to the slide, this is the slide I'm referencing. And I'm just going to divide their assumption by three because we're doing three years, twenty five, twenty six, twenty seven. So that's roughly of four hundred exahash of total sold per year. And let's go with their assumption, seventeen dollars per terahash. That comes out to six point eight billion revenue. for the market assuming the seal miner share is thirty percent that comes out to around two billion and assuming that the seal miner revenue as a percentage of total revenue for bitdeer itself the company because as I mentioned there are a couple other lines of business Assuming the seal miner contribution is seventy five percent, that may be very generous, maybe less than that. But let's just assume that so that we're going with a conservative estimate here. That would put Bittier's total revenue at around two point seven, two point seven billion. That is annually. And this should happen by twenty twenty seven latest. Now, a conservative conservative price to sales ratio for Bitcoin miners around two. However. That's because they're Bitcoin mining and the profit margins for Bitcoin mining are a lot smaller, I think. If this company proves itself as a player in AI and high performance computing, as well as ASICs, they may command a much bigger price to sales ratio, especially if it has the growth numbers to back that. But that would put the market cap conservatively at around five point four billion. Now, if we went for the more bullish Price to sales ratio of four, for example. And by the way, Bitcoin miners, they trade between one and five price to sales. So we went with four as our bullish assumption. That would put us at around the eleven billion market cap using a discount rate of ten percent and assuming that this valuation is achieved, let's say, twenty twenty seven. Then the present value today would be around five point eight billion. shares outstanding at one hundred and ninety six million. That puts the price per share at around twenty nine dollars and a half. Now, I for my members, I always like the sandbag things even more. I like to have a margin of safety. And so definitely, you know, our target price is on our watch list. If you're asking me why our target price is less than this, that's because I like to leave a. A cushion, a margin for error, but this is, I think, a very reasonable valuation for this company so close to thirty now we we're up ten percent today but after the ten percent we're at fifteen so um that's my view of the tier after its most recent earnings and that's how I view uh the valuation for this company with that being said let's go to questions salamat muhammad we don't discuss individual positions typically in terms of buying and selling but follow along you saw what we did congrats to PIF members we doubled our money on LifeMD in the last month I think more than doubled actually so congrats to everyone and when you take profits then as we did today when you take profits then say Alhamdulillah and Yeah, just try not to think about, oh, what's going to happen or just be happy with the profits. Never be down when you're taking profits. Make sure we always have our greed in check, inshallah. Natal says, Assalamu alaikum, Rakan. Wa alaikum assalam, Natal. Nice to see you. Not sure if you are realizing how much good you guys are doing for PIF members. Well, thank you so much. I really appreciate you saying that. Thank you for giving us a chance to improve our financial situations. Well, I really appreciate you writing that. Merck is really not... I really like our dividend portfolio picks. I think they're... I think they're really solid picks. I may have chosen the best four on the market. Salamat Rashad. Nice to see you. Trade in one-to-one backed gold is halal or haram. Not sure what's that. Salam Zuhair. Nice to see you. Yes, I speak Arabic, Patrick. I don't know what your question is referencing, brother. Salamat Kemp. Please share some details on ROD. Okay. Nothing to share. There are some, yeah, let's just keep in mind this is a public live and our portfolio is private. I do like to provide as much free value as possible, but I also don't want PIF members to feel like They aren't getting anything exclusive. So there's a balance there that we need to strike. My own channel says, As-salamu alaykum, brother. Your views on Corweave. Actually, it's on, like, if you see, like, things that I'm looking at right now. um I I'm watching the stock and it's up twenty two percent today and it was up massively this week every day I was looking at it it was up double digits percentage-wise but um balance sheet is terrible although they do have a good dynamic in terms of financing and sometimes I think you know the repayment of debt as per their ceo should you know, happen very quickly given the investments that they are making. And today's jump was a product of Nvidia, um, increasing its ownership stake in the company. So. I am, though, when I look at something like CoreReeve, I think about some of our players like Iris Energy, Bitdeer, and so on. And I think to myself, well, if one of these companies can pull off an agreement with a hyperscaler, then I think it could do very well. So what CoreReeve is inspiring me to think of is some of... Because I think it's basically fully valued at this point. And perhaps I'll do a deep dive on it, but I think it's fully valued at this point. But what I don't think is fully valued are some of the high-performance computing AI plays that are not fully formed, like Bitdeer, for example. How are we expecting to reach three hundred shares? Well, you'll see. I do have a plan for the PIF community. Thanks, Hassan. I really appreciate that. Inshallah. Marvel. Maybe I'll take a look myself. I haven't covered PFE. Alhamdulillah. Thanks, Rashad. I really appreciate that. Thank you all for tuning in. Leave a like. I know the live today is quite late. Leave a like so other people see it. I really appreciate you tuning in. And make sure, make sure, say alhamdulillah for everything and enjoy your weekend. Make sure to do that. Until next time, assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.