The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Bought the Dip

Rakaan Kayali

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Bought the Dip

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Retail Investors Buy Moody’s Dip
  • Big Inflows: Tesla & Palantir
  • Trump-Putin Call and Market Impact
  • Japan's Economic Struggles
  • Pony AI Earnings Preview
  • Global Liquidity and Crypto Correlation
  • United Health Outlook
  • Fed Interest Rate Outlook & Final Thoughts 

CONTACT US

salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well I know I know I'm late to this live but hopefully this means that people who can't normally watch my lives while they're happening can do it uh this time around uh that being said I'm just going to go over what you need to know as I like to in these lives so without further ado let's get let's get started the uh market today uh was unfazed by moody's downgrade of the us that happened after hours on friday there was an initial scare but retail investors specifically bought the dip if you look at the map here for winners and losers It's basically scattered on different sectors. There isn't one particular sector that stands out a lot. The market generally exhibited a lot of breadth in its strength, and that is a good thing. Now, retail investors bought the Moody's dip today, as I mentioned, in record numbers. And this is according to JP Morgan's data, surpassing the April dip in terms of retail investors conviction and the amount that they bought. uh specifically they bought four point one billion of stocks within the first three hours of the market being open today the two biggest stocks that they bought palantir which is building the infrastructure for the police state and tesla tesla had six hundred and seventy five million of inflows palantir four hundred and thirty nine million of inflows Single stock purchases were two point five billion of the purchases, while ETFs were just one point five billion. And I really think that retail investors are catching on to the fact that it's actually not true. What has been advertised for the longest time, which is that You know, it's very hard to beat indices. I think you can if you know what you're doing with the necessary amount of experience and concentration in the high conviction place that you have. I think it's actually not that hard. now I'm not going to have you read all of this but I'll give you the gist donald trump had a phone call today with vladimir putin the phone call lasted more than two hours and donald trump's takeaway from it was that russia wanted to make a peace deal with ukraine and he Trump, that is, told European leaders that that was the case. So we'll see how that happens. Now, if we get the deal between Russia and Ukraine and we get a tariff deal as well, that could really put the markets at ease and establish a firm base for new highs. Now, not everything is rainbows and roses. reached by the way I didn't even know there was such a thing as a forty year bond forty years that that seems like a lot but their forty year bond reached uh three point four seven nine which is a record and the japanese are basically forced or stuck into printing a whole bunch of yen and the the kicker or the real tragedy for Japan is that their economy isn't growing, unlike the United States. Now, Japan has a debt to GDP of close to two hundred fifty percent. So way worse than the United States, which I think is at one twenty one thirty percent debt to GDP. But the problem with Japan is that it's not growing. Their population is in decline. And in fact, they're Most recent GDP reading was negative. If you look at nineteen ninety three versus twenty twenty three, a thirty year difference in nineteen ninety three, the GDP of Japan was four point five four trillion. it was four point two trillion thirty years later. So it actually fell three hundred billion. China, by contrast, went from four hundred and forty four billion GDP to seventeen point seven nine trillion. Now, one of the stocks that I will be listening to their earnings report tomorrow before market open is Pony AI. This is a company that does autonomous driving technology integrations. And they recently inked a deal with Uber. To me, it seems like a very silly deal. valuation that it's being given by the market but this will be their first earnings call after they went public and I I'm curious to listen to what what's going on here this is a market cap that has a six point zero one billion company has six point zero one billion market cap but if you look at the quarterly uh net income negative one hundred eleven million cash from operations, negative twenty five million cash from investing, negative seventy six million cash from financing. So raising money is is positive. The net change in cash is positive, but they're burning money. They're constantly have to borrow and dilute. Basically, you know, for the foreseeable future, I can't really see how this company is being given the valuation it is being given. So I'm going to be interested in listening to what management has to say there. And what's also interesting is that I would have thought a company like this with this type of valuation would have been shorted to no end. But no, if you look at the short interest, it's not heavily shorted. So what gives? I'm intrigued. So I'll be listening to their earnings report. We may provide a My thoughts on that tomorrow, inshallah. I did want to point out something that I did mention to PIF members on Friday. It does appear that global liquidity is rising. So that's the yellow line. that's on this chart that tracks the M two global liquidity index. And if you juxtapose it or overlay it with something like Dogecoin, you can see that initially there is a spike in M two global money supply, and then it's followed by the massive spike in things like Dogecoin. I'm showing you Dogecoin on this chart, but if you overlay it on Bitcoin, it's the same, but perhaps not the same percentage increase. And then you can see that when global liquidity fell, so did the price of Dogecoin. And now global liquidity has risen a lot recently and Dogecoin has started its upward ascension. But I mean, if this pattern is going to hold, then it probably has a lot more to go. Lubna, nice to see you. Walaikum salam. LifeMD is a good company. Alhamdulillah, we made some money. We're just making some tactical moves there. Mad. Nice to see you, brother. Is United Health Halal? I mean, I think generally insurance is fine, but obviously it depends on their balance sheet and what they're holding. Now, United Health is one of the biggest health insurance companies in the United States. They employ tens of thousands of people, tens of thousands of, I think, doctors. I think they're the number one employer of physicians in the United States. Could be wrong. Check me on that. But it does appear that the business model for health insurance moving forward is transitioning to more online firsts like HIMSS and LifeMD. And therefore, companies like UnitedHealth have to really change deal with a lot of infrastructure that has been built on the old system and then also the reviews and I mentioned this on discord for my pif members I mentioned this that the the reviews are atrocious on united health and so I understand it's down and it was up today but it's down substantially from its normal trading levels almost half And I understand some people may see an opportunity in that, but I just can't get excited about a product that I think is on its way out and the model that is on its way out and a product that has atrocious reviews. I just rather not touch it. I think base case, you know, maybe there's twenty, thirty percent upside in the next twelve months. That's my base case. Maybe more than that. But it's just not something that I'm interested in. There's other ways to make money. So I'm at the Sun. I see. Do you think the tariffs, uncertainty and inflation, there's a chance that Fed will not drop the interest rate at all? Well, one of the Fed officials was saying today, don't worry about. interest rates for the summer basically nothing's going to happen during the summer so who knows I think it really depends on the data and what happens salamat khaled nice to see you ahmed salam always appreciate your lives thank you sir I wanted to ask if everyone is seeing the btc versus mto graph will it still play out yeah I think it will inshallah brother Marvel, okay. I think you asked about Marvel the other day. So perhaps there's something really intriguing about that. Rehan Yusuf, Salam, I want to jump on a paid meeting with you. Will you be able to help with my long-term investment strategy and help me plan to become a solid halal? Inshallah, I'll do my best, Rehan. And actually, I did become a registered investment advisor. So, yeah, so... That being said, this is not investment advice, but if you schedule a consultation, inshallah, I'll be able to help you, Rehan. Thank you all for tuning in. Really appreciate it. Love you all. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.