assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well today is monday may twenty first and guess what we had something that uh we haven't seen before in the market and that is volatility uh today's uh market volatility was the result of a u.s treasury auction not receiving as much enthusiasm as it is used to so basically borrowing money for the US government became more expensive. And that pushed basically yields up. And that's basically a oftentimes a double whammy for stocks. So on one hand, companies can't really raise money as easily because it's more expensive if higher yields persist into the future, but also stocks have more competition from higher yields so the valuations for stocks aren't as generous and when you look at the future cash flows of companies and you're discounting them using higher interest rates you come out with lower valuations for those companies and lower values for their future cash flows. So it tends to hit risk assets in different ways, or I should say equities specifically in different ways, higher yields do. However, there's always a bull market somewhere. And I think part of my job is to figure out where the bull market is going to be. And I really see a clear path forward for investors and what assets I think will do the best moving forward. Without further ado, let's get started. That's my handsome self and that's our thumbnail for this live. So to recap here, what happened in the market today, the Dow Jones was down close to two percent. Worst day in over a month. S&P was down one point six percent, broke a six day winning streak. The Nasdaq was down one point four percent. Tech stocks are under pressure for the reasons that I mentioned. Russell, two thousand was down two percent. Steepest loss since early April and Liberation Day. Ten year treasury yield is at four point. Let's call it six percent from four point four eight percent. Thirty year treasury yield is north of five percent, a multi-year high. We haven't seen this since October twenty twenty three. for the u.s twenty year that is up to five point one one four percent and if you look historically we basically haven't seen these high of rates in the last ten years and now we've been at you know higher than average rates for the last twenty four months call it But we are basically flirting with the high, the ten-year high, basically, for twenty-year bond yields. And as I mentioned at the outset of this live, this has major implications for companies and their valuations. If you look at the average stock returns at different levels of twenty-year treasury yields, you can see an inverse relationship. So the average stock return is higher the lower the twenty-year treasury yield is. So if the yield is below three percent, the average annual stock return is close to twelve percent. Between three and five percent, The average return is just shy of eight percent between five and seven percent, which is where we find ourselves right now. The average return is closer to five percent and above seven percent for the yield. Then you're looking at an average stock market return of just three percent. Now the gain in yield and the nervousness regarding US treasuries is a function of many different things, a confluence of different factors. So there is worry about inflation. Obviously you don't want to be paid back in money that's going to be worth a lot less than what it was worth when you made the loan in the first place. And we have talks about tax cuts and whether or not those tax cuts that are proposed are going to exacerbate the deficit issues that the US faces. And we obviously have the, I think, biggest worry that's in the back of every investor's mind, which is the debt situation in the United States. It's unsustainability and the feeling that something is eventually going to give. And so investors are nervous about that. And that all played into yields rising and the low demand for government debt. Now, if we look at the U.S. recession in twenty twenty five, the probabilities of it, we can see that we're slightly up. to a forty percent probability on polymarket. Now we are down from the height of pessimism, if you will, which was close to sixty five percent chance of a recession in twenty twenty five. But we're off of the lows that we experienced about a week ago, which was closer to thirty five percent. We're back at a forty percent chance of a recession, which is If we go back to the first of this year, it's about twice the probability of a recession that we were forecasting on January first. Not to pile on here with regards to some bad news, but if you look at the Truflation Index, It has been creeping up recently. It's now closer to two percent and deflation has been a reliable indicator for future CPI readings. There is a difference between them. However, the directionally they are pretty much in sync. And so that can't be good for the Fed's chances of lowering interest rates. So all paths, the clear path moving forward, which is the title of this live, the clear path leads to Bitcoin. And it leads to assets that are scarce, that have limited supply, and that supply cannot be, that limitation cannot be tampered with. Today, we hit an all-time high. on the price of Bitcoin and what's close to one hundred and ten thousand. I said many times that this was, I thought, what was going to happen. What is very noteworthy about this all time high is that it comes at a time when the MVRV Z score is nowhere near it's a local maximum. So we are still at relatively subdued levels of the MVRV Z-score. And if you look at previous cycle highs, they always corresponded with a spike in the MVRV Z-score to levels where you could argue, okay, we're at you know, the peak of the cycle, we should expect a downtrend moving forward to look at, for example, a very clear example where you had this local high, which corresponded with the MVR VZ score hitting a local high there. we're not seeing that this time around which tells me that there's a lot more meat left on this bone for bitcoin and for a lot of bitcoin derivatives a lot of bitcoin plays that we are heavily invested in and if you look at bitcoin It is moving up the market cap ranking for most valuable assets. I remember when this list first came out, it was at the bottom of this list. And it's slowly like that meme where you have the angel of death opening doors and slaughtering what's behind it. Rank by rank, it's going through each asset and taking its place. So... Bitcoin is now more valuable than Amazon. It's more valuable than Google. It's more valuable than the market cap of all of the silver in the world. It's more valuable than Saudi Aramco, which is crazy. You think about how much Saudi Arabia is. You think of Saudi Arabia, you think of wealth and oil wealth. Bitcoin is now more valuable than the biggest oil producer in Saudi Arabia. And it's bigger than Facebook. Still, it is one tenth the size of gold, and many people argue that it will eventually exceed the market cap of gold. That is certainly possible. Gives you an idea of how much more is left to go in the appreciation of this asset. And, you know, the market cap of gold is set to increase as well. So there's probably more than a ten X left here. So with that being said, I think all roads lead to Bitcoin and Bitcoin derivatives. If you look at the Bitcoin proxies on the market today, they've done relatively well compared to their cohorts. And more broadly, I think the market is moving towards looking for any assets that have a reasonable chance of maintaining their value over time and have limited supply and supply that cannot be tampered with so with that being said let's go to questions ahsan I see you do you think fed will look at this bond market uh Sorry, I'm not sure what you're asking in first question. Perhaps you've clarified in second comment. How long do you think bond market will be in the driver's seat? I think it's in the driver's seat for the time being, to be honest. Do you think that the Fed will look at this and not drop the rates? I think that for the Fed, Inflation is top of mind until we get data that suggests that the economy is in trouble. Well, thank you, Ellis. Appreciate the comment. Been missing you around here. Abdul says, I think you said Alabama. Alaykum, brothers. That's a spell check for you. What do you think the top for BTC will be? Q three Q four. I will probably be looking for an exit in Q three, unless of course the data tells me otherwise not to take a page out of the Jerome Powell book. That's how I'll be playing it. BTC getting gold in the near future. I don't think it's going to Tenex in the near future, but I think it will catch up in terms of gains in the near future and it will probably exceed gold. You can't really, so Sheikh is asking about Bitdeer. You can't really draw, like one day is not a trend. There's a lot of other dynamics that go into the price of a Bitcoin proxy. other than the price of Bitcoin. But generally speaking, there should be a strong correlation there. Yep, autocorrect. Assalamualaikum to everyone. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Become a PIF member if you haven't already. Till next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.