The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Tempus made a HUGE mistake! Down 20%

Rakaan Kayali

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Tempus made a HUGE mistake! Down 20%

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Tempus AI Down 20%
  • Why Management’s Silence Is a Huge Mistake
  • Background on Tempus AI
  • Response to Short Report: CEO Track Record
  • Criticism of AI Revenue Contribution
  • Business Model Explained
  • Allegations of Aggressive Accounting
  • Valuation Analysis and Free Cash Flow Concerns
  • Final Verdict on Tempus AI
  • Q&A: Apple, Canon, Mining Stocks 

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DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Assalamu alaikum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, May, and today we're going to focus on a stock that I've mentioned on this channel. It's not part of our portfolio, but we do have it on a watch list on our PIF membership site. And that stock is Tempest AI. The short report came out today and the stock responded down twenty percent. I think the management of this company made a huge mistake. That's why I titled the live with this title. Made a huge mistake by not responding, choosing not to respond to the short report. And even though the management doesn't pay me, I'm going to do my best to respond to the points made in the short report. Because I think that when someone makes allegations that are detrimental to your company, you have to respond. Now, I'm not affiliated with Tempest, as I mentioned. I don't have money invested in Tempest, but I did mention them. And I actually, out of curiosity, I wanted to see if there was merit to the short report or not. So let's go over the short report and see what points have merit, what points don't. So without further ado, let's get started. And if you appreciate this type of analysis, do leave a like. I'd really appreciate that. So Tempest, as I mentioned, is down today in a big way. It's down close to twenty percent on the day. Now, I have to kind of give myself a pat on the back because in our membership site, we do have Tempest on our website. watch list as I mentioned and we have the take profits price at sixty five and so and the buy below price at forty seven so if you stuck to the take profits price at sixty five you would have nailed the top top that sixty eight so you would have nailed the top if you had stuck to that price I hope Some of you did and made some money. I know we had a sister asking about Tempest the other day, whether or not she should take profits. And I believe I mentioned that probably a good time to take some profits. Valuation was extended. So yeah, just a bit of a victory lap there. Now, for those who are unfamiliar with Tempest, it is a company that basically the CEO decided to start after his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer and he realized how little AI and just technology in general was used in the healthcare field and figured there should be a company that's filling that gap. So he started Tempest AI. And the idea is to take all this information that we have, all these tests that we have, all the medical information record that we have, and use AI to create intelligence that we can then use to diagnose and treat illnesses moving forward. So very simple and I think needed concept. Which is to use artificial intelligence in healthcare. That makes a whole lot of sense to me. And that's the idea behind Tempest AI. Now going to the first point that was mentioned in the short report, there was concerns about the company's founder. And this founder was associated with a number of previous companies, one of them being Groupon, for example, and Groupon lost close to ninety five percent of its value since its IPO. And I think that's fair criticism, to be honest. You know, a person's track record is what it is. That being said, I don't think necessarily you can say having a failed experience in the past is indicative of what is to come. Oftentimes, failed experiences are really accelerated learning experiences. And therefore, if the lessons learned from the Groupon experience are used to avoid similar profiles in Tempest AI, this could be an asset. This experience could be an asset. Certainly, when it comes to the short term, report publisher themselves they can't be too picky about people's track records after all this is a a company that told you to sell hymns in july of twenty twenty three hymns at the time was trading at eight dollars and eighty six cents it is now close to fifty three dollars and thirty four cents so probably shouldn't be you know doubling down too much on people's track records because it's not like this firm has the best track record and also they do have a conflict of interest here they are short the company so Food for thought. The second point they bring up is doubts about Tempest AI's capabilities and AI's revenue contribution. They claim that AI only contributes two percent of overall revenue to the company. This is kind of a weird criticism because AI enhances the services that the company makes. It's not selling their version of ChatGPT. AI is not a direct product that they're selling. AI is meant to enhance the services that they provide. And so, yeah, they don't have AI as a... as a separate line item in their financials. But that doesn't mean that AI isn't used extensively in the company and isn't an engine for growth for the company. I think something that's perhaps a turnoff for many, is the fact that they used AI in their name. I think that that can, you know, sometimes it rubs people the wrong way. Obviously, this is a marketing thing. And so, yeah, I can see why people would be rubbed the wrong way, but that's not necessarily, you know, fraud. That's marketing and, you know, understanding that, you know, AI is... very popular right now that term is very popular right now investors are excited about it and I think rightly so and so they put it in the name is that necessarily a crime I don't think so this is that take away from the fundamentals of the company I don't think so either now the way this company earns money is that they have diagnostic testing and that diagnostic testing uh produces a lot of data that they license uh to hospitals, medical care providers that need it. And they also, along with that data that they provide, they have a layer of applications that people can use to make sense of the data and use it in a useful way. And so that seems pretty much as advertised, like this is the mission of the company and that's how it's making its revenue. Getting caught up too much on what line items are included in their financials, I don't think is necessarily... a point to spend too much time on. Another point that they mentioned, the third point that they mentioned, which I skipped over was the fact that they said that, you know, some of their officers were involved in companies that, you know, were later found out to be, to underperform or to maybe overstate their financials or something like that. And to that, I, it was too similar to the first point which is that you know the ceo doesn't necessarily have a record of total wins and so the same response goes there so um as to you know the the morality of the officers in the company I can't really attest to that other than to say you know if there is something wrong that they're doing, then you need to point it out. There needs to be something specific that is said. It's not enough to simply say, well, these are bad people because they work for companies that did bad things, for example. I don't think that's fair. If they are doing something wrong right now, go ahead and point it out, but the report doesn't do any of that. It doesn't provide any specifics. It kind of just is building off of hunches. Now, signs of aggressive accounting and financial engineering is the fourth thing that they claim. And here, I kind of responded to this, is that there's no specifics given here. mentioned some transactions that maybe have, you know, they round-tripped revenue in one case. And, you know, there were similar accusations made to NVIDIA with regards to Coral Reef and they round-tripped revenue. But when you look at the actual growth that the company has experienced, these transactions being, you know, a small part of that, it makes the... argument a lot weaker, less plausible that they would engage in a transaction that would impact their financials slightly. But that transaction was you know, aggressive, aggressively accounted for. I mean, basically they're stopping short of saying fraud. So, I mean, if, you know, you have a growth that's, you know, and there's a transaction that may contribute, you know, five percent of that, the motivation for for fudging that transaction is not that strong versus a company that only grew five percent. And then you're claiming, oh, the entire five percent is actually fraudulent. Oh, well, then that's something. OK, I can understand the motivation there. But given the growth of the company, it doesn't seem like revenues, for example, they're having much trouble growing them and therefore I would need specifics to take something like this more seriously. And I think that whenever you're unsure about these things, it's very important to look at this statement of cash flows because cash is cash. Cash is what it is. It doesn't matter necessarily what you're recognizing matters. What is the actual cash situation for the company? And the cash situation for the company is as follows. You have to go out to something like twenty twenty seven and you're still at around seventy three million in free cash flow, which is not a lot considering that this is a company that after the drop today is trading at nine billion so it's a very rich valuation there's no yeah there's no if ands or buts about it. This is a richly valued company. And the idea is that if this thing doesn't go parabolic, it's not going to justify its current valuation. And that's why we don't have it as a buy currently in our watch list. So understand what you're buying, understand the valuation for it before you buy. And understand that when you're buying something that's valued very richly, sorry about that. when you're buying something that's valued as richly as something like Tempest AI, you have to go out to twenty twenty seven to get free cash flow of seventy three million and it's already close to ten billion in market cap, then investors are going to be jittery when a short report could take it down, twenty percent, thirty percent, et cetera. So, you know, if you if you want to make a lot of money in a quick period of time, you should be very OK with the volatility that comes with that. You live by the sword, you die by the sword. as they say. So that's my take on Tempest AI. I think it's a richly valued company. I think that I wouldn't buy it at these prices even after the twenty percent drop. It would need to go down further for me to become interested. But I think that businesses fundamentally um a good idea and if they if they do it right it could become us you know it could become worth a lot more but there isn't enough margin of safety for me to buy it at this point uh and I should I should disclaimer here my take on the short report is is just my take it's not financial advice but that was my initial impression in case you're wondering because I have mentioned this company on my life before so uh with that being said let's go to questions very quickly Apple stock? Well, let's see what Apple does with regards to AI. They seem like the only one of the Magnificent Seven, basically, that is really lagging that trend. So we'll see. They have to do something quick. Is Canon in your watch list? No, it's not in our watch list. I was asking about it before. They just reached positive gross profit, which is not really that attractive. Hey, Salam Rashad. Always nice to see you. Salam Kareem. Nice to see you. Assalamualaikum. The metals company has been in the news recently as Trump tries to deregulate deep sea mining. Curious whether you can have of the metals company and whether you have any thoughts on it. No, not really. I have to take a deeper look into that. Purification of profit. Let's say losses one took exceed profits of other assets. How do you go about the purification of at least two point five? So I wouldn't mix assets with one another. So if you have an asset, you made a profit on it, then I would look to purify the amount of that profit that I thought may have come from. Have you heard of? Okay, so that's the same question again. Generally speaking, I'm not a fan of mining companies. Generally speaking, it's a very, very tough business. Margins are razor thin. I'd rather go into a business, become a partner in a business where it's easy to make money as opposed to one that is hard to make money. Mining companies tend to be hard ways to make money. All right. With that being said, leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Become a PIF member if you aren't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.