
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Could Tesla be the new Nvidia?
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Could Tesla be the new Nvidia?
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro
- Why One Good Idea Is Enough
- Tesla vs Nvidia: The AI Parallel
- Robotaxi Network Launch Date Revealed
- Market Size of Robotaxi and Humanoid Robots
- Nvidia’s Revenue Growth vs Tesla’s Potential
- Misleading PE Ratios on Disruptive Tech
- Bear Case for Tesla and Multi-Trillion Opportunities
- Final Thoughts and Community Interaction
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Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Assalamu alaikum, folks. I hope you are doing well. Today is Friday, May thirtieth. And today I'm going to tell you about an idea that I think may suffice to be successful in investing for the next few years. And I often say this on this channel, which is that all you need is one idea and have a deep enough conviction in that idea to hold it through thick and thin and be patient with it for you to be successful in investing and for you to beat the market many times over and hopefully achieve whatever goals you have from investing. And I know I've spoken about this topic before, But I do believe that we are approaching the event horizon, so to speak, for two main themes actually manifesting in favor of the company that I'd like to talk to you about, which is Tesla and what that could mean for its share price moving forward. And to get an idea of the potential, I think it's informative to look at a company that experienced a similar phenomenon, which is NVIDIA. NVIDIA, its GPUs were looked at basically as gaming hardware until... It had its chat GPT moment. In a twenty twenty two and all of a sudden their GPU's were in massive need there was massive demand for their gpus in data centers and that caused their business and their the market cap of the company to explode so could we be approaching something very similar for tesla this is the what you see on the screen is the chart for nvidia and The low for this company in twenty twenty two was around ten dollars per share. Now we're talking about one hundred and thirty five dollars per share. And this came after the ChatGPT moment, as I mentioned, and the possibilities for GPUs, which really Nvidia was the only game in town if you needed. the required GPUs for large language models. And And similarly, I see a lot of parallels with Tesla. So with that being said, and speaking of chat GPT moments, the Nvidia CEO has mentioned that the chat GPT moment for general robotics is just around the corner. And who do we know is the leader in general robotics? Well, real world AI who do we know is the only company basically that has expertise in both mass manufacturing robots starting with cars basically being one form factor of robots cars with full self driving and also artificial intelligence and if you look at Elon Musk's biographer he mentioned that it was likely that Tesla and XAI may even emerge in the future and become one company. So is Tesla the new Nvidia? Will it have the same type of run that Nvidia had over the last two years? Will Tesla have a similar run over the next two years? So without further ado, let's get started. Tesla is now has set a date after years of waiting, has set a date for launching its Robotaxi network, June twelfth in Austin. It's going to start with maybe a dozen cars and Elon Musk is going to be and the Tesla company are going to be Watching every one of those cars and making sure that bugs are fixed as they arrive whenever they are spotted and the ramp up will be quick. As I mentioned before, they already have distribution. They already have the cars on the road, millions of them. And they already have the app on people's phones. And it's just a matter of a software update to expand from the initial batch of a dozen cars to more than that. It's just a matter of a software update, basically. The total addressable market for something like Robotaxi, you ask different people to give you different numbers, but Morgan Stanley recently had their report that estimated the Robotaxi total addressable market could be close to one trillion in the United States alone. And I actually think that is not that far off when you think about the added utility that will come from cars and people forgoing the need to buy a car in favor of just getting around using robotaxis. Not only that, obviously, Tesla is looking to integrate its humanoid robots in its factories, actually using them for production by the end of the year. And you ask different people, again, you'll get different estimates for addressable market here. But according to one city analyst, this could be close to seven trillion dollar market. I actually think this is really underestimating uh the the total addressable market because they're saying in the next twenty five years I think it's going to be much quicker than that it'll probably be in the next ten years that we see it reach this type of market size now if we want to sort of retrace our steps here and this is from cern basher on x if we want to retrace our steps here and look at what happened to nvidia's quarterly revenue In in twenty twenty two. We were talking about something on the order of five billion, basically for quarterly revenue, depending on which quarter you were talking about. And all of a sudden, two years later, we are closer to fifty billion in quarterly revenue. So a massive, massive spike in quarterly revenue and without sacrificing margins for this company. Again, they were the only game in town, kind of like Tesla is the only game in town if you want a true full self-driving that is vision based. If you look at hindsight PE, and this is for all the people that argue about the devaluation of Tesla and the valuation being rich. If you are to look at the price you had to pay for today's earnings, going back to, let's say, The price that you had to pay, and at that time, NVIDIA was argued to be expensive. The PE was something close to five. You would only pay five times earnings. Right now, the average S&P PE is greater than twenty. And so really when you're looking at S-curves, when you're analyzing companies that you think and technologies that you think are going to follow an S-curve where there's a slight appreciation, a slight acceleration to start, and then it goes parabolic, it's really detrimental for people to focus on PEs because the numbers in the future are not gonna look like the numbers in the past. Again, if you look at the revenue in twenty twenty two, we were talking about something on the order of five billion dollars in revenue per quarter. Now we're talking about fifty billion. So and that was just twenty twenty two. It's only two years ago. So. Make sure you're not valuing, you're not using traditional, you know, PE metrics to value a company, a technology that basically has a moat around the technology that you think is going to follow an S curve and address an addressable market that is in the trillions of dollars. That is people's pitfall when it comes to Tesla. And then when you look at the market capitalization, Obviously, it went parabolic. You're looking at between twenty twenty, for example, and today, something like a twenty X in the market cap for Nvidia. And I really do think that you could get something similar in the next five years, in the next six years for Tesla. I I know I'm I'm talking about this company a lot but I really feel like time is running out as I mentioned in an earlier live this week time is running out for people to fill their bags with this particular stock and as I mentioned nvidia's ceo is is anticipating a chat gbt moment for general robotics that is just around the corner and just around the corner is getting closer and closer by the minute so with that being said let us go to question I actually, Quiznos, I hope you remember your comment in a year's time and you remind me of that comment because you're going to be mistaken. But obviously, you probably won't bring it up. Quiznos is saying I'm overextended in Tesla and I'm trying to justify it. Well, we'll see. We'll see. what do you think of trump media launching bitcoin treasury strategy after closing through point five private placement with institutional investors yeah sounds like something uh sitting president shouldn't be doing uh salamat rachad nice to see you do you think we are still in a bull market With all this uncertainty? Yeah, the bull market is determined by liquidity and how it's moving, not by uncertainty. We're in a bull market that is giving us opportunities to buy. Do you think with today's bullback, it's an opportunity to buy more bitier Tesla? Yeah, I do. With the macro news, it seems like we're going to have a next bearish week. It's tough to say. It depends on the tweets that come out from the commander-in-chief in the next seven days. So it's tough to say. All I know is that liquidity is rising. It's still a bull market. There will be volatility induced by Bitcoin. macroeconomic news, but generally the direction is up. Yahya asks a good question. What would be the bear case for Tesla? Well, I think one of the reasons why Tesla is so attractive is because you know, it has multiple bets. Each one of them is a trillion dollar opportunity, whether it's energy storage or robotaxis or humanoid robots. These are multi-trillion dollar opportunities. So all of these would have to fail somehow. And then that would be the bear case for Tesla. But that certainly doesn't seem like the trend. Thanks, Rashad. Appreciate that. Yes, do like the live. Mr. Haroun, assalamu alaikum. Love your updates as always. Thank you, Mr. Haroun. Lubna, assalamu alaikum. Jamal Mubarak. Thank you. I appreciate the support. And I hope everyone is positioned according to their convictions. and time doesn't run out for them because I do think that we are approaching the event horizon here for this stock the next two three years are going to be pretty interesting for tesla pretty I think happy for tesla holders inshallah So with that being said, if you haven't become a PIF member yet, do become a PIF member to join our community, follow our portfolio updates, and leave a like on this live if you enjoyed it. Make sure to take care of yourself and enjoy your weekend. Spend time with your family and count your blessings. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.