The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Everything is Fine!

Rakaan Kayali

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Everything is Fine!

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Market Recap & Geopolitical Overview
  • War Impact on Stocks
  • Bitdeer, Tesla, and CleanSpark Update
  • Bitcoin Holding Strong Above $100K
  • Ethereum and Dogecoin Commentary
  • Miner Rally & Market Sentiment Shift
  • Bitcoin Price Models & 2030 Projections
  • Pakistan's Bold Bitcoin Move
  • Tesla FSD vs Waymo Analysis
  • USD Outlook & Fiat Currency Critique
  • BTC Halving vs Liquidity Cycle
  • Final Thoughts & Community Q&A

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Monday, June, and we've basically recovered from the dip that we experienced earlier in the year. The Nasdaq was up one point four two percent today. S&P was in the green Dow Jones was in the green Russell was up. Things were looking hunky-dory despite the fact that there's a new war going on in the Middle East and the market just shrugged at it and said, everything's fine. And I can't really blame it. In the past, if you look at the way the Russia-Ukraine war started, the market's reaction and the rebound from that, at the time we had other issues with interest rates going up. But essentially, geopolitical tensions, escalations have not had prolonged impacts on the market. I think really the only way this conflict has a prolonged impact on the market as if the United States were to enter the fight itself, which I don't think it is going to do. Certainly it doesn't have any interest in doing so, although I'm sure the Israeli lobby would love for the United States to enter the fight. I just don't think there's enough support for it to do so. So that being said, I think that the market will continue to shrug at the events in the Middle East. And our thesis as it relates to the bull market and following the liquidity cycle, at least until Q three of this year, probably into Q four, That thesis remains valid. If you look at individual positions, Bitdeer had a pretty big day today, up close to seven percent. Tesla was in the green. Clean Spark was up. And if you look at things like gold, maintaining a pretty high level at thirty four hundred. Oil retreated slightly. Bitcoin is at one hundred and eight thousand. I think it may be gearing up for the next leg up. I mean, we have been consolidating here between one hundred and one hundred and ten thousand for a while. And it was quite encouraging to see Bitcoin maintain a level above one hundred, even at the height of panic. In the wake of recent incidents in the Middle East, even at the height of panic, it did not go below one or four. So that's very encouraging. That shows you that this is really resilient and perhaps six digit Bitcoin price is the new normal. Doge is at just shy of eighteen cents. And Ethereum continues to do well, actually, twenty six hundred. That being said, if you zoom out here, Ethereum has hit twenty six hundred every year for the last three or four years. And so, you know, maybe it's evolving into a stable coin. We'll see. All right. So with that being said, let's go to our remarks for the day. And as we said, the market is basically just putting its fingers in its ears and saying, let's just ignore what's going on over there. We'll focus on the markets, the companies, and liquidity cycle. So what crisis is what the market is saying? In fact, defensive stocks, things like healthcare and utilities actually performed pretty badly today. And so the market is no longer, in a risk-off mode like it was at the end of last week. And the miners, the Bitcoin miners, we talked about CLSK and Bitdeer, but generally speaking, the miners had a really great day today. And oftentimes the miners tend to front-run Bitcoin. And so maybe the miners are telling us something. Salamat Rashad, nice to see you. The Z-score for Bitcoin between two and three suggests that there's still a lot to go before we reach levels similar to where previous cycles peaked. Previous cycles having peaked in that red bar there between seven and nine. Between two and three, this suggests that there's still a lot of meat left on the bone here in this cycle. If you look at the Bitcoin quantile model, which I found quite interesting, this suggests that if you were to model the potential prices for Bitcoin based on the historical Bitcoin price trajectory and you extended you extrapolated that trajectory to to twenty thirty to twenty thirty one then in twenty thirty the basically the one percent And so the point where only one percent of possible prices is below it, that point is two hundred fifty nine thousand, which if you think about it, you know, you're talking four or five years and a two and a half X. That's not bad. I mean, you basically. the market itself will double on average every seven years. So this is still beating the market and this is the most bearish outcome. If you look at, well, I shouldn't say the most bearish, the most bearish is zero, but only one percent of possibilities. If we're looking at historical trends, only one percent of the possibilities are below it. At the thirty three percent mark, that is close to forty four hundred thousand rather. The sixty six percent mark is closer to six hundred thousand and the ninety nine percent mark. So all prices are ninety nine percent of prices are below it. Based on this model, that is close to nine hundred and fifty thousand. So this is for the year twenty thirty and into twenty thirty one. So the most I think you know, likely if we were going to go with the, you know, Q two and Q three here. So the second quantile and the third quantile, a price is between four hundred and six hundred thousand for Bitcoin. So that's still I mean, the midpoint there is five hundred thousand. So that's still a five X, which is nothing to scoff at. Obviously, if you ask someone like Kathy Woods, she'll tell you it's for sure going to be a million by twenty thirty. And who knows? I mean, this is just extrapolating based on historical trends. It's not really taking in the fundamentals and the dynamics of adoption. And game theory that may come into play when different sovereigns, different corporations start adopting and the race really heats up between different players in order to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible before the price becomes too prohibitive. Speaking of which, Pakistan seems to be very interested in Bitcoin. They are intending to buy and hold bitcoin basically establish their own reserve of bitcoin and use excess energy for bitcoin mining in addition to ai so they seem to be they seem to get it here in regards to the importance that bitcoin may play in the future. And they're actually engaging Michael Saylor in a push towards their Bitcoin adoption and making it more and more integrated into their economy. And so other sovereigns might see this and say, hey, we heard about the United States and its stance on Bitcoin. Here we have nuclear power, Pakistan, getting very aggressive with its approach to Bitcoin. Perhaps this motivates adversaries like India to do the same. So this could really cause a snowball effect here. Moving on to another position that we like, Bloomberg Intelligence had some really kind things to say about Tesla today. It did note the stat that I've noted here on this live many times before. Tesla FSD is twenty six times safer than a human driven vehicle. If you compare it with something like Waymo, it is more than three times as safe. And you can expect that this level of safety is going to increase with time to a point where I don't think it's far-fetched looking years into the future where it becomes illegal for humans to drive on the road because of the safety implications for for that and you know typically when people are riding cars it's top of mind for them, a top consideration is safety. So this is a very big advantage that Tesla has and will motivate fast adoption of robotaxis and full self-driving when they become available. They also mentioned that Tesla's autonomous vehicle cost is eighty five percent lower than Waymo's if you want to manufacture the vehicle. And not only that, but if you look at manufacturing capacity, Waymo is aiming to manufacture to manufacture two thousand Waymo vehicles. They probably won't hit that number, but they're aiming to manufacture that. And over the coming year, two thousand vehicles, in contrast, Tesla currently produces roughly one million Model Y FSD capable vehicles per year. So basically what Waymo aims to produce in massively more expensive vehicles this year, which is two thousand Tesla produces in five hours. So people who say Waymo is ahead of Tesla just don't get it. They don't understand what they're talking about. No other incumbent U.S. or European carmaker offers full self-driving on city roads and This, I think, is actually very, and this is why I was very insistent that we buy Tesla and make it a big part of our portfolio and not wait for things to gradually roll out. But I do think that as it relates to Robotaxi and Tesla's leadership and deployment of it, It's going to move slowly and then all at once. So once it works, then distribution is already there. The cars are already on the road. The apps are already on people's phones. All they have to do is basically flip the switch when things are ready, things are tested out. And all of a sudden you have millions of FSD capable vehicles with a Tesla logo on them that are ready to go. So this could get really interesting for Tesla stock. Join PIF if you haven't joined already. Link to do so is in the description. With that, let's go to questions. Shad says, this is a nerve-wracking game. Well, that's why being part of a community is important because there are other people with you along the way. And for me, that makes things a lot more tolerable and easy to manage. Hamid says, salam alaikum. I hope you are doing well. Increasing member meetings twice a month. Perhaps we will talk about that. Hamid, it's not a bad idea. Amir Hamza says, what do you think about USD going down against other currencies for foreign investors? Do you think USD will regain its value? I wouldn't look at USD as a play for investing. Maybe it gains value versus X foreign currency, but there are just other plays out there that I think are a lot more attractive than buying any fiat currency. The time of fiat currencies is coming to an end. Humanity is moving towards a different system, a different monetary system. This monetary system has run its course and will collapse soon. Hopefully not dramatically. Hopefully there's a somewhat smooth transition into a better solution. But this monetary system makes no sense, the one that we're in right now. And we can do better. And a lot of the world's problems will be solved when we do better. And so I'm not investing in fiat currency. It's a tool to use to purchase things for now. But that's basically all I see it as. Rashad says, do you think we are approaching a milestone related to recent BTC halving compared to previous halving? I actually think the halving is not. I think the halving is a distraction at this point because the production of Bitcoin is so small right now. The halving really doesn't matter like it did in the first and second cycles. What really matters is the liquidity cycle. And liquidity is set to rise Q three, Q four. And that's why I remain bullish. And so I would not focus on the having at all. It's a distraction. So long as liquidity, your forecast for liquidity is that it's going up, then holding something like Bitcoin, I think makes sense. Ahsan says, Salam, looks like Bloomberg also listens to your live. Yeah. Why do you think China is banning all crypto? I mean, I haven't actually heard this particular piece of information. Is that because I know that, you know, if you recall, twenty twenty one, there was a big and that actually caused it. a pretty significant pullback in the crypto market. There's a big thing about China banning all crypto after having a less hostile view on it. But I think generally speaking, China, the government in China doesn't like things that doesn't control. And it actually has a bias towards centralization of everything. And crypto is the opposite of that. At least some crypto, Bitcoin being top of the list, wherein decentralization is a virtue. So because it cannot control crypto, I think perhaps it has adopted a hostile view towards it. Rashad said, thanks Rakan for the PIF insights. The watch list is absolutely helpful. I really appreciate that, Rashad. And thank you for moderating as always. If you enjoyed this live, do leave a like. I'd really appreciate that. Become a PIF member if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.