The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

A Big Mistake IF True

Rakaan Kayali

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A Big Mistake IF True

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro and Market Overview
  • Sector Impacts: Tesla, Bitdeer, Enphase
  • Iran-Israel Conflict Escalation
  • Trump’s Role and Unfolding Strategy
  • U.S. Debt Crisis and Defense Spending
  • How War Impacts Markets
  • Faith Perspective: Adversity and Divine Wisdom
  • Q&A: Bitdeer Halalness and Tesla Energy Impact
  • Final Remarks and Community Updates 

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Tuesday, June, and to go to war or not to go to war, this is the question that is gripping the markets right now. Basically, all the major indices are down today. The Russell is down one percent. Dow Jones is down point seven percent. S&P down point eight four percent. And the Nasdaq is down one percent. VIX is up thirteen percent. Now it is above twenty, which is nowhere near the height of the panic that we experienced after Liberation Day, for example, but still elevated compared to the historical norm. And different assets are faring differently. If you look at something like Tesla, it was down four percent today. The more volatile plays were down more. So something like Bitdeer is down six percent. Enphase got a double whammy today with the passing of a bill that was not friendly to its business. Now, at least in the house, down close to twenty four percent. I'm still not interested in it. If you're wondering, CoreWeave is up because CoreWeave doesn't care. And Bitcoin maintained a price above one hundred thousand, still very resilient in the six figure range. Dogecoin not as resilient, now sub-seventeen cents token. So let's talk about, obviously, the elephant in the room. And that is what is going on with regards to the conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel. And recently, I'm talking in the last few hours, what once was thought of to be a very remote possibility seems to be at least the chatter seems to suggest this seems to be more probable and that is the united states entering in this conflict against iran on the side of israel and you know what is happening is is truly breathtaking So Donald Trump is basically in denial here as to what happened. For those who weren't paying attention, Iran was in negotiations with the United States and the negotiations were going good. And it seemed like there was going to be a deal between Iran and the United States, and they were scheduled to resume negotiations. And during this break, as waiting to resume negotiations, Israel attacked Iran. And the obvious play here is for, and it attacked Iran, all indications suggest it attacked Iran without the consent of Donald Trump. And it did so in order to force his hand, not make a deal with Iran, basically completely nuke the, no pun intended, the negotiations that were going on. And basically eliminate the possibility of a peaceful resolution of this issue. But instead of Donald Trump saying, Hey, Israel, why did you attack without my consent? He's trying to act like he's part of it. He's trying to act like, you know, he was not stabbed in the back by Netanyahu. So now he's talking in terms of we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment and plenty of it, but it doesn't compare to American-made, conceived, and manufactured stuff. So he doesn't want to admit that Netanyahu stabbed him in the back did not actually listen to his desire to continue negotiation with Iran and find a peaceful resolution. He's not admitting to that at all. He's acting like this is, you know, he's part of this. There's no knife in his back. And he's trying to act like somehow this reflects positively on the United States. And it obviously does not. And today he tweets out, you know, unconditional surrender, all caps. Very interesting that he doesn't just write unconditional surrender on his account on X. He takes a screenshot of the post on True Social and and uploads that to his account on X and posts that, nothing makes sense anymore. So he's now more Catholic than the Pope, more Zionist than Israel. And so he now has fully embraced the role of someone who was you know, actually clued in onto this attack and was part of it and actually wanted it to happen. And so he's saying, you know, unconditional surrender. This is what he wants from Iran. Keep in mind the acronym TACO is appropriate here, and he deserves it for a reason. He often talks – TACO, by the way, an acronym standing for Trump Always Chickens Out. He often talks a big game, but then, you know, In case in point, the dramatic tone change that Donald Trump had as it relates to Iran. So he's posting now, we know exactly where the so-called supreme leader is hiding. He's an easy target, but it's safe there. We are not going to take him out, at least not for now, but we don't want missiles shot at civilians or American soldiers. Well, I mean, there are civilians in Gaza and missiles and everything under the sun was shot at them for more than a year. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Just such an imbecilic way to end a tweet like this. Thank you for your attention to this matter. It's like he's making an announcement in Walmart. This is just, I mean. Super dumb. And so this dramatic tone change from Trump, I mean, it's kind of, you know, it's tough to wrap your head around it. Now, with regards to Iran, I mean, it used to be that, it used to be, I'm referring to a few days or weeks ago, it used to be the case that, actually a few days ago, it used to be the case that Donald Trump was optimistic about a deal with Iran. and he struck a very, I think, reasonable tone. All of a sudden, he's, you know, Mr., you know, I'm going to kill the Supreme Leader, and, you know, I'm really tough, and I'm ready to go to war. It's a dramatic tone change that has happened, and trying to wrap my head around it. Here are some random unrelated facts. I'm sure. So Elon Musk is pretty sure that Trump is in the Epstein files and Jeffrey Epstein ran a blackmail ring on behalf of a nation in the middle East. I think, you know, probably Bahrain. Um, and all of a sudden, you know, you have out of the blue, this dramatic tone change. So I don't know if someone can make a link here, but, um, You know, I'm unable to. These just seem random, unrelated facts. Perhaps they're relevant. Perhaps they aren't to their current situation. But for the United States to enter a war in Iran doesn't serve any of U.S. interests. I can't think of any U.S. interests that are served by this at all. Seems like an imbecilic thing to do. And it's especially imbecilic when you consider how much debt the United States has. Like right now, if you look at that red line, that's the U.S. federal debt, and it's basically gone vertical. Interest payments are now on par with U.S. defense spending, which is hard to believe if you watch the the parade over the weekend, but the US spends a trillion dollars on interest, which is basically the budget of the US Defense Department. And interest is soon going to exceed that. And if you look at the U.S. debt to GDP ratio, we're now above the level we were after we ended World War II. And we're not in a major war. And so this is really the only war that the United States should be fighting. It's a war against indebtedness. The entire country is about to go insolvent. And we are worried about conflict in the Middle East that doesn't impact us in any way. There are no US interests that are served by the US getting involved in this. And yet it appears at least from the rhetoric and again, you know, things can change very quickly here, but it appears that this is kind of the path that we're going on, which is a really it's hard to wrap your head around. But in terms of winners and losers in the market, typically winners in conflicts in the Middle East, when they escalate, tend to be energy, defense, gold-related stocks. They tend to outperform. Losers tend to be airlines, tech, consumer discretionary. And I expect the same to hold. If you look at what happened to the markets when the United States started bombing the Houthis in Yemen. This is basically what played out. I assume if that is to play out again, then it would just be the same pattern, but in exaggerated form. Obviously, Iran is much bigger than the Houthis statelet in Yemen. So this is what you can expect in the markets. And I think the markets are going to recover. There will be obviously a dip if this escalates, but the markets will recover as it does from every Middle East conflict in relatively short order. And I think focus will shift from that conflict, which is front and center right now to go back to the macroeconomic situation in the United States, monetary policy, fiscal policy and whatnot. But we will have added additional debt and spending, which we just can't afford right now, which makes US treasuries even less attractive, probably makes other hard assets even more attractive. And this secular trend is not going to stop so long as the interest is hard to catch up with and continues to compound. Now, more than ever, it's very important to be an investor. Don't leave your money in cash other than what you need for immediate expenses. Obviously, you should have a cash cushion for expenses. I typically say three to six months of expenses, but depending on your situation, you may dial that up or down. but it's important to have a cash cushion but other than that you probably should be investing I'm not investment advice by the way in terms of your cash cushion but if you'd like to join a halal conscious investment community then join pif to invest smarter stay halal and grow your wealth dr boss shared this and I really appreciate him sharing it today we did book some profits on a position and and he ended up booking a hundred and thirty four percent in profit obviously can't guarantee future results but alhamdulillah we've done well all right so with that being said let's go to questions wilson says bit there is further down an additional six percent after hours looks like they're raising three hundred million any thoughts on the halalness of this uh well um but there continues to I mean it's very hard to project what the interest expense is going to be as it relates to total expenses. Obviously, when they have their earnings report, we will take a look at that. But so far, Bitdeer has been compliant with our Sharia standards. And so until their next report, we won't change that. That being said, That's my thoughts on the convertible note. This is a company that is aggressively expanding and investing in R&D. It's perhaps their biggest expense after cost of goods sold, obviously. And so this aggressive investment in expansion and R&D should bear fruit for investors who are willing to hold in the meantime and if you look at the intrinsic value of the stock I do think at this particular point it's trading at a discount if especially considering the short interest in the stock if bitcoin is able to go on a prolonged run I think the stock could pop so we'll see we'll keep you posted after iran is gone and arab nations leaving their religion and beliefs abraham accord will be done soon I absolutely disagree with the entire disposition here. For me, I think the oh, it seems to be kind of no offense, but it seemed to be kind of defeatist. I absolutely think that everything that is happening is happening for the side of good and against the side of evil. Everything that's happening is happening in our favor, inshallah. And it's happening to the detriment of the forces of evil. And when you are a force for evil, everything that happens is not in your favor. You know, if the United States attacks Iran, that's not in your favor. If it doesn't attack Iran, that's not in your favor. If, you know, the war stops tomorrow, that's not in your favor. If it continues for six months, it's not in your favor. If it continues for the next two years, it's not in your favor. And just like with stocks, you have to have a longer term horizon when you're analyzing these things. As a Syrian, I can tell you when it comes to Bashar al-Assad, I had Yaqeen. I never had a wavering belief that this was going to work out in our favor ever. And I always thought that whatever happens, it's in our favor. It may be painful in the meantime, and it was painful for fourteen years. But what has happened right now in Syria is what we dreamed of as Syrians. And so eventually good will win out. And I think everything that happened now, looking back on the fourteen years, everything that happened was in our favor. You know, in two thousand fifteen, Russia got involved and basically stopped the progression of rebels at the time, and I just. And it forced them to kind of. You know, coalesce in Idlib and. And build their state and institutions in Idlib. And. Understand how. how basically managing a small country works and gain some experience in that. And then once they had the proper experience in governing, Allah allowed them to take over the rest of Syria. And so it was really Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala, you know, planning it out for the Syrian people, the good Syrian people. And, you know, Russia's intervention, even though they're so criminals for doing that, ended up working out in our favor. Everything that happens to you, so long as you are on the side of Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala, everything that happens to you is good for you. And the Prophet, peace be upon him, said that. Everything that happens... In the world is good for you. The universe is working in your favor when you are on the side of Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala. And the Prophet peace be upon him said, the matter of a believer, I'm in wonderment as to the matter of the believer. If something good happens to him, He is thankful. And that good thing is good for him. And if something bad for him happens to him, he is patient. And that bad thing that happens to him, not bad thing, but the adversity that happens to him is good for him. So everything that happens to him, whether it's adversity or... But that's only for the believer. So whether it's adversity or something good, anything that happens is working in the favor of the believer. So I absolutely take the opposite approach. When I'm looking at the things that are unfolding before me, I'm like, I have yaqeen. I have absolute belief that this is all in favor of... of good and will work out not in favor of the forces of evil. So that's my position on that. Some say Trump is going on with what Israel started to increase oil prices and hit China by slowing the economy. I don't think any of that has anything to do with Trump getting involved in Iran. I think The only reason Trump will get involved in Iran is because he's forced by the Israeli lobby to do that. I don't know how they're going to force him, but that's the only reason why the United States would have the politicians. That is the people. Actually, the people are waking up. The people understand now what's going on, but the politicians are just bought. And so The only reason politicians are going to sign off on an attack on Iran would be the Israeli lobby. Nothing to do with the United States at all. Nothing to do with the interests of the United States whatsoever in any way, shape or form. The last thing on their mind, everyone is looking out for themselves. Any thoughts on the cryptocurrency bill, which was just passed by Senate? Are we expecting a Doge and BTC run soon? I think we're overdue for a BTC run, but geopolitical turbulence has postponed it. But when it comes, I think it will be pretty powerful. With the administration moving away from solar, won't Tesla energy be affected? No, I don't think so. If you look at the the things that are being removed, Tesla didn't really benefit from them at all. And so I think the only thing that may benefit Tesla is, and I'm not sure about this, but if there are components, especially in their storage business, their energy storage, their battery business that come from China, and tariffs aren't lifted, that may squeeze their margins. But other than that, in terms of sales and whatnot, I don't think that will be impacted. As-salamu alaykum, Zuhair. Nice to see you. Do leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Become a PIF member if you haven't already. And for Elite members, we are redoing our course. Inshallah, we'll have updates on that soon. And so bear with us while we revamp the course, inshallah. But that should come out in the next few days and weeks, inshallah. And so yeah, I'm looking forward to that. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.