As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you're doing well. Today is Friday, July eleventh, and the big story in the market is Bitcoin and Bitcoin's price and the breakout that we anticipated. Alhamdulillah, the breakout that we've experienced has been quite rapid as soon as we got out of that. hundred to hundred and ten thousand range that we've been stuck in for a while. As soon as we got out of that range, we entered price discovery and basically shot up. We're now at one hundred and seventeen thousand. And the question that is always on my mind whenever we're in situations like this is, you know, I want to make sure that I'm not late leaving the party. And as it relates to Bitcoin, I should say, if you have a long enough time horizon and you're okay with not necessarily optimizing a hundred percent for the cycles, then just buy and hold and forget about it. And you'll do very well. However, if you are interested in optimizing in terms of know still having a position in bitcoin but uh perhaps reducing your exposure uh when most of the meat is off the bone for the particular cycle that we're in uh then this live is for you by the way if you enjoy these lives do leave a like uh we have been uh lagging a bit on the likes in recent lives so I would be remiss not to remind you, if you do enjoy these lives, do leave a like. So YouTube suggests these lives more and ranks them higher and more people see them. Much appreciated. This is what Bitcoin's chart is looking like. You can see where the breakout happened. And you look at the other cryptocurrencies, the chart is quite similar. Obviously, the correlation between Bitcoin and other cryptos, especially the majors, I should say. I mean, if you're looking at smaller alts, the lower you go in the market cap ranking, the less the correlation with Bitcoin is. holds, but Solana top ten crypto here really tight in terms of its correlation, especially on the way up with Bitcoin. Dogecoin is the same. has a very tight correlation with Bitcoin on the way up. This is something I've mentioned many times on this live before. And other alts as well. I've mentioned Pudgy Penguins on this live before. It's a token that we hold in our PIF portfolio. And it also has exhibited pretty strong correlation with Bitcoin. the overall crypto market, even though it does have a lot of great things happening for its particular project on its own. This is a token that's absolutely been on fire as of late. All right, so let's talk about when to sell. That's my beautiful, beautiful headshot. When to sell. Greed, but not extreme greed. That's where we lie on the fear and greed coin market cap index. And typically with the greed, it has been a good time to... to hold, extreme greed is typically a good indicator that we're at the top or we're very near the top. So you can see, for example, in the September-October period, we did stay in extreme greed for know a couple months at least and during this period of time the price of bitcoin that's in gray it was uh going up so it's not necessarily okay let me panic sell once we get the extreme greed we could stay up there for a while but typically it is associated with uh local tops If you look at the stock to flow index, and that is an index that, yes, with Bitcoin, it's a new asset. And therefore, these types of projections for price don't have more than the history of Bitcoin to go off of, which is not that long. However, the stock to flow has been used for gold. And it was thought to be a good indicator for price for Bitcoin, considering the analogies between gold and Bitcoin and analogies in their supply dynamics and This is a measure that looks at how much Bitcoin there is out there versus how much new Bitcoin is being introduced. And based on this index, the price of Bitcoin is expected to be right around three hundred and thirty one thousand. Now, if you look at the price and that's that colorful line, if you look at the price and you compare it with the orange line, which kind of goes up in with a high inclination for a certain period of time, and then it kind of plateaus, and then you have a steep incline again, and then it plateaus. You can see that the price has... relatively been in the ballpark of, you know, where the orange line is. Right now, the orange line is well above where the price is for an extended period of time, you know, between. It's twenty twelve and and all the way to twenty twenty. The price has been above where the orange line is. But now we're below where this model suggests the price should be and we're below by a lot. So one hundred and thirteen versus three hundred and thirty one. But as I said, there's a extended period of plateau. And so this extended period of plateau, it's kind of covered here. It extends for many months. And so, you know, just because we're below the three thirty one doesn't mean we're necessarily undervalued by that much. Three thirty one is right around the price suggested for a long period of time. That being said, I think it's a good idea. sign that we're below the line and we aren't above the line a stock to income is another model that is a derivative of sort of stock to flow but it adds into it or takes into account the income that the bitcoin miners are making the rewards that bitcoin miners are making and In this model, the projected price is three hundred and forty K. And here again, it's suggesting a band between one hundred and seventy K and six seventy nine K. Again, the projected the projected. price here is very close to the projected price that we saw. So three thirty one versus three forty for this model. And again, the the period of plateau extends all the way to twenty twenty eight. So it's not necessarily true That, you know, we're undervalued by a third almost because, you know, you have from now until twenty twenty eight where we're roughly around the same price, according to this model. However, I think it's noteworthy that the upper band here is closer to seven hundred K. So it's very likely that we go above the above the three forty K. So the middle of the range that this model is suggesting and we may flirt with by twenty twenty eight, we may be flirting with four hundred, five hundred and even more than that. We also have the PI cycle top indicator. Now this is one of my more used indicators for determining whether we're at the top or not. This looks at the, because I think it's more accurate, more precise than the indicators I showed before. And so this looks at the a hundred and eleven day moving average and then two times the three hundred fifty day moving average. the latter being in the green, the former in orange. And these are the two lines here. The price is in black. Now, when these two lines cross, that's typically when you have a local top or even a cycle top. And so you can see it happened here in late twenty twenty one. So kind of nailed it there. And then they haven't crossed since. And you can see that the differences between them are quite wide. The lower band here, the one hundred and eleven day moving average is around ninety eight K. The upper band is at one hundred and seventy two K. So there's. Close to eighty K difference between them. And you can go back even before twenty twenty one and you can see that whenever there is a, you know, these two bands approach one another, there has been a local top in twenty eighteen, for example. Again, here in twenty fourteen, it pretty much was extremely useful and almost nailing the local tops and cycle tops for that matter. So this gives me an added layer of comfort. The MVRVZ score as of yesterday was clocking in at two sixty five, which is nowhere near previous cycle tops, which were between seven and nine. So we're good on that front. And this is a metric that's basically looking at how much profit holders of Bitcoin have. Obviously, the more profit they have, the more likely it becomes that they take profit. And so this is very useful. It also has been very good in terms of determining when a cycle top occurs. Again, here, if you go back to twenty twenty one, you can see a spike where we reach seven on the MVRVZ score. And ever since we haven't been even near that level. And then finally, I would say this is something that sort of underpins everything and is perhaps more important than anything I've showed you thus far. And that is, if you look at the top right here, the probability of a hike for interest rates is zero percent. And so long as we're in an environment where no one's even talking about hikes, Then the liquidity, the picture is either going to remain the same, in which case the indicators I mentioned are what to go by, or they are actually going to ease. So the no change probabilities, this is for the September meeting, the no change probabilities at thirty six percent, the ease probabilities at sixty three percent. And so long as the two probabilities we have is no change in ease, then something like Bitcoin, which is basically almost a barometer for liquidity globally, I think is a good place to be. But as soon as we start talking about hiking, that's when I'm for sure out. But that doesn't seem like it's in the cards right now. We'll obviously have to be sure to keep tabs on the economic situation and how that evolves. And there are rumors that Jerome Powell is going to resign. So that's you know, the only reason why he would resign is because there's too much pressure on him to cut rates. And so the next Fed chair will likely, I mean, that's going to be a top priority for them. And so, so long as that's the monetary backdrop, monetary policy backdrop for, um, for the US dollar, then I think, you know, crypto generally is going to do pretty well. And so with that being said, um, I think that there's still, we have a ways to go here, uh, for Bitcoin. It's not the top. I'm not, um, you know, my, my cell finger is not itching, but I think that, um, know taking profits and rotating maybe as we as we approach the top uh for this cycle I think rotating some profits into positions that haven't moved yet that aren't necessarily crypto I think increasingly makes sense the higher we go and obviously we'll be doing that and so will obviously remain vigilant as much as possible obviously we can't predict the future but you know on the way up I think rotating some profits into positions that haven't moved yet makes a lot of sense but it's too early to to call a top here all right so I did want to share this which was a cool comment we got on our private Discord. I'm so glad I joined the community. Knowing myself, I'm pretty sure I would have lost probably everything taking into consideration all the volatility that happened this year. The community and Rakan helped me a lot stay calm and focused and also how to filter the noise. Thank you, everyone. Let's continue to help each other improve. I just thought that was, you know, an amazing comment and I'm glad The author left it because that's really what we want the PIF community to be about, helping each other improve and helping each other navigate the volatility of the market. If you'd like to join PIF, then you can do so using the link in the description. With that being said, let's go to questions. Behat says, Given their recent performance of three hundred thirty three thirty seven percent in the last three months, are you planning to increase your position in Pudgy Penguins? Well, it's tough. I don't like to chase. So if we get a dip, I might. Hussam says, Salam, I hope you're doing great, brother. Well, thanks, Hussam. Appreciate that. Hope you're doing great as well. Bossor Syed says, is the price PLL expected to go up after the merger vote? I think yes. I mean, it's less about the merger and more about the price of lithium. I think the price of lithium will recover. Certainly the price right now doesn't support expansion of mining operations but the world needs an expansion of mining operations to support the transition to electric vehicles and just general demand for lithium batteries so I think that's a you know a good indicator that the price is bound to inshallah go up and and that's really what uh PLL and stocks like PLL need for their share price to recover. Hamid says, Assalamu alaikum. Depend on previous cycle, crypto bull run might end in September. Do you consider this in your thesis? I do keep tabs on seasonality. Seasonality is not something that's completely irrelevant. But I think looking at the indicators that I showed today are better than just simply looking at what month we're in. Eagle MMA says, Assalamualaikum, bro. What's your view? By the way, Eagle MMA reminded me of Habib. I saw Quentin Rampage Jackson this week. I actually took a photo with him. Haha. Just randomly walked into a coffee shop I was in. So that was cool. Super nice guy. Eagle MMA says, Salam Aleikum, brother. What's your view on Oscar health insurance stock? Well, I was actually... I did a whole deep dive into it. But I don't like the people behind it. So... And I just... I mean... Um... Yeah, I think that, I mean, they're claiming that they've done something big with health insurance, but I have Oscar Health Insurance. It's not really that great of a product. So if I'm not really a big fan of the product, it's hard for me to get behind it. uh bruce wayne says what's your opinion on suey nah I'm not not gonna even dabble in that I think clearly if you look at you know the number of daily active users look at you know where the activity is solana it's not suey um you know obviously there's a lot of people made a lot of money with these other altcoins, but it's just something that I don't have strong enough conviction in to get into. Not when something like Solana is clearly in the lead. Why would I skip number one for number two or three? And if I do, I'm not going to have enough conviction in number two or three or four, knowing that they're lagging the leader to hold on to it for any meaningful gains. do you think LFMD may rebound yeah I do I was hoping it goes down even further I mean we have our buy price at at ten dollars fifty cents I mean if it gets closer to ten I may I may just back up the truck on it immediately go in like a full position on it do you think the four year cycle is still relevant I think it's relevant, but the four year cycle is not about the havings. It's about the liquidity cycle. So if you think that, you know, we're, we're approaching or what lies ahead is easing monetary policy, then it's a good time to own crypto. If what lies ahead is tightening, then get the heck out of crypto as soon as possible. Oh, FedZ says, are you considering picking up? Yep, I just answered that. What's the best budget app you recommend? Well, I can tell you what I use is Rocket Money. It's pretty good. I initially started using it because its founders were Afghan brothers and I just wanted to support them. But it has since gotten acquired. But it's actually a super solid application. Yeah, Eagle MMA says, amazing, would love to see that. Yeah, maybe I'll post the picture on Twitter. If you're not following us on X, our handle is in the bottom left corner. Check us out. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself, leave a like, become a PIF member, and take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.