The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Speedbumps Ahead for the Market

Rakaan Kayali

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Speedbumps Ahead for the Market

In this episode, we will cover:

  •  Intro and Market Recap
  • VIX and Volatility Trends
  • Stock Updates: Tesla, Bitdeer, Coreweave
  • Bitcoin Breaks $120K
  • Solana, Doge, and Pudgy Penguins Update
  • Tesla's Robotaxi Expansion & XAI Investment
  • Bitcoin Treasury Holdings Surge
  • Banks Approved to Custody Crypto
  • Speed Bump Ahead: Inflation Risk
  • Rate Cut Outlook & Market Recovery
  • Viewer Q&A: Halal Stock Picks, Patience in Investing 

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Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

assalamu alaikum everyone today is monday july fourteenth and we had a positive day in the market even though I do suspect that maybe coming up on a speed bump I'll tell you a bit more about that in a second leave a like if you enjoy these lives And without further ado, let's get started. The VIX was up close to five percent, the volatility index that is, but we're nowhere near. That's what you're seeing right now on the screen. We're nowhere near the heights of the volatility that we saw in April after the Liberation Day, the infamous now Liberation Day. Looking at the indices, they were up, but only slightly. So the Russell was up point six, seven percent. Dow Jones up point two percent. S&P up point one, four percent. And the Nasdaq was up point three, three percent. MicroStrategy was up close to four percent. Tesla was up one percent. Bitdeer up two percent. Coreweave, of course, up five percent, continues to defy all odds, defy gravity, has pulled back from its highs, which were closer to one eighty, one ninety. Now it's back to one thirty two. I still think it's overvalued, but we'll see. silver is up slightly gold is flat uh bitcoin obviously the talk of wall street the talk of investors really globally um did break a hundred and twenty thousand I did mention that once we broke out of the a hundred to a hundred and ten thousand range that We could see a really strong move upwards as Bitcoin enters true price discovery. Solana is at one sixty and I do expect it to break out any day now. Doge is at just shy of twenty cents and Pudgy Penguins has had quite the run as of late. It was up close to thirty percent just yesterday. Today, it's right below point zero three. All right. So let's talk about the speed bumps that I see. But first, we'll talk about fundamentals of some of the companies that we follow. So the betting odds are betting that there's only a twenty six percent chance of Tesla launching unsupervised full stop driving and in twenty twenty five, that is. And I like these odds because they They give a big room for upside here. And there is reason to be bullish, I believe. Additionally, for Tesla, they have expanded their service area. And I think that the pace of expansion will accelerate. This is for their Robotaxi experiment in Austin. I'm not going to show you the actual... geofenced area because it was purposefully shaped provocatively, but they are expanding the geofenced area on which Robotaxi is available. And without having to map out the area, the way a waymo would have to and so that kind of just gives you a taste of how much ahead the tesla technology is versus competition they can basically expand in any shape basically that they want because they are vision-based. And this extends not just within the same city, but across countries as well, as we saw in China with the supervised full self-driving rollout earlier this year. And as if the deal for holding shares of Tesla couldn't be any sweeter, there's additional diversification that Tesla holders may enjoy. Elon Musk is thinking about investing five billion of Tesla dollars and has a heap of more than thirty billion in cash into XAI, assuming the valuation is set by credible outside investors. And I really think that this is a good investment to make. Obviously, XAI is competing for being the number one AI company out there. I mean, it's in the race. And so I can't really think of a better use of the mountain of cash that Tesla has. And We'll add on to, I'm sure, once Robotaxi and humanoid robots reach scale. And it does look like, at least from the voters on this very non-scientific X poll, that seventy percent or just about are on board for that suggestion. Looking at BTC and what we can expect, it is possible that BTC treasuries change this cycle, make it a lot more robust, a lot more prolonged than previous cycles. These are companies and even sovereigns now that are holding Bitcoin on their books. And if you look at the rate of change here, it is accelerating with regards to how many companies and how much Bitcoin they're holding on their books. So the number of entities that are now using Bitcoin as a treasury asset is now two hundred and sixty six as a percentage of the twenty one million Bitcoin. That's around sixteen percent. And the dollar value of that Bitcoin is close to four hundred and twenty billion. So this is BTC that is basically, once it's in treasury, it's not going to be traded. It's not going to be supply for a very long time. And so supply continues to decrease while demand continues to increase. And so there's really a supply crunch that is happening for BTC. And there's no telling how high this could go in the months and years ahead. And to add on to the bullish fundamentals for this asset, the Federal Reserve and US regulators issued a statement saying that banks are now allowed to custody Bitcoin and crypto. They've long not been able to, but now they can. And I don't see why big banks wouldn't jump on this opportunity considering how it's performed and considering the appetite that retail investors have exhibited to holding and buying Bitcoin, especially as proven by the success of the Bitcoin ETFs. If you look at BlackRock's ETF, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, it is now one of the top in terms of size of any type of ETF globally. And so I think banks are going to jump on this opportunity and they're going to hoover up a bunch of Bitcoin and decrease supply And so I only see the scarcity of this asset when measured as demand versus supply as increasing, and it probably will increase very quickly. And so really, we move to one twenty, but we could go a lot higher, as I've said on this slide many times. my price target for bitcoin this year is two hundred thousand I think that's still in the cards it seemed very unlikely only a few weeks ago but I really do think that it is in the cards and remember that bitcoin's moves uh tend to tend to happen within very few number of trading days And basically, if you miss them, you miss the move. But they happen suddenly and quickly. And so just because we're already through half of the year doesn't mean that we can't get to that price target of mine. and um the the speed bumps that I see for the market right now primarily relate to inflation I do see that inflation in the united states has accelerated in june economists are expecting this so we do get the inflation number tomorrow I would not be surprised if it was hotter than expected Now, that being said, the good news is that Truflation does show that the July number has come down. So you can see here, this is where July starts and June ends. And this is why I think the June number is going to be hot. I don't know how the market is going to react. I assume probably not positively. Again, this comes out tomorrow morning, but maybe the market has enough foresight to say, okay, well, the June number is hot, but July seems to have started off cooler, but we'll see. I think initially there'll probably be a drop followed by a relatively quick recovery, but... We'll have to wait and see. That happens tomorrow morning. Just a heads up. If you are not a PIF member yet, do become a member. Prices may go up soon. So make sure to become a member if you aren't a member already. And with that, let's go to questions very quickly. Is NVIDIA and Tesla a hundred percent? So NVIDIA, I'm not, I'm not sure about because they do have some research and development that happens in Israel. So I'm not really comfortable with them. Tesla, I'm comfortable with it. What about Mr. In terms of it being a hundred percent halal, they do rely on, on debt for their operations. So I'm not really comfortable with that. do we get suggestion on what etf or mutual fund we may trade under our for one k account in this group uh we don't really invest in etfs or mutual funds uh as pif we invest in individual stocks if you'd like a consultation you can and so reviewing your individual options you can schedule a consultation with me using the link in the description of this live. Hamid says, Salam. As you know, normally September is not good for stock market in general, but if this time we get a rate cut, do you think the market may rally if we get a rate cut? Yeah, I think if the probability of a rate cut increases, and I think it probably will, That being said, you know, we may get a setback tomorrow. I'm just trying to prepare people mentally. I don't think it's a reason to panic, but I do think we'll recover. But as the probability moves higher, the market will recover. So even before the rate cut. Salam, Dr. Shawan. I see you. Any reason the miners didn't run as much with BTC? Yeah, kind of disappointing, to be honest, but it requires patience. Eventually, they will make their run. And specifically, I think Bitdeer eventually will make its run. But investing is really a game of patience. The market is a tool for moving money from the impatient to the patient. So I think we just need to be patient on that one. Mo says, I'm so proud of you as a Syrian. That's one of the biggest reasons why I joined our course and community. Well, thanks, Mo. I really appreciate that. I've been doing great with forty five percent margin. I never had the chance to share that. Well, thank you for sharing that. I'm assuming the forty five percent margin you're referring to profits. That being said, is it wise to invest more in PLL to have a better lower average? I think that will probably work out well for you if you have the patience to see it through. Your average price being ten point five. And I think right now it's maybe high sixes. So there is an opportunity there. But you have to have patience. I don't know when the recovery will happen, but it has been moving. I think in the last month it's up maybe fifteen percent. So. Not bad, not like our other positions, but not bad. Why is Dogecoin not reaching all-time highs? Again, this is something that you have to be patient with. The Bitcoin train has to run a bit and people have to kind of feel like the the upside for bitcoin in the near term is is relatively limited before they start looking down the market cap ordering uh for more attractive opportunities uh and that's what time do you live stream usually well around this time A great way to end this live. If you haven't become a PIF member, become a PIF member. Again, consultation link is in the description. Leave a like if you enjoy these lives and inshallah we'll be with you tomorrow. Until then, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.