
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Inflation is Higher, But Who Cares?
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Inflation is Higher, But Who Cares?
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro & Inflation Reaction
- Market Indices Recap
- Stock Movers: Tesla, Bitdeer, Enphase
- Crypto Pullback & Pudgy Penguins Surge
- Inflation Analysis & TrueInflation Insights
- Nvidia, AMD, and AI Supply Chain Stocks
- Overbought Nvidia?
- Crypto Sentiment & Seasonal Trends
- Pudgy Penguins Forecast & Solana Tie-in
- NIO & Lucid: Cash Burn Analysis
- Thoughts on PPI and CPI Impact
- Is Nvidia a Good Long-Term Hold?
- Halal Insurance Stocks & Platform Picks
- Crypto vs. Growth Strategy
- Should Jerome Powell Resign?
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinace.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Tuesday, July, and as I told you guys yesterday, I thought the inflation numbers may be a bit higher, and indeed they were, and the market reacted. It was kind of negative, not too negative. There wasn't panic in any sense. And as I said yesterday, I think the rebound will be quite quick. And so we'll see if that happens. Right now, in terms of the indices today, the Russell was down close to two percent. The Dow Jones was down one percent. The S&P was down close to half a percentage point. The Nasdaq was slightly in the green, up point one to eight percent. Looking at some of the different names that we follow, Tesla is down close to two percent. Bitdeer is down more than seven percent. CleanSpark down three percent. Enphase down four percent. CoreWeave up six percent. Gold is flat. Silver is flat. Bitcoin at one hundred and seventeen thousand now. You could attribute this to the crypto bills not passing today. You could attribute it to the inflation number being a bit higher than expected. Or you could just say, hey, we've been up more than twenty percent in the last week or so. So a bit of a pullback is to be expected. Sol is hovering around the one sixties still. Doge is at around twenty cents. Let's call it twenty cents. And Pudgy, Pudgy Penguins. is uh point zero three two it's nearly tripled in the last month talk about that in a second as well all right so as mentioned inflation picked up thing ticked up in june uh we are now at a rate of two point seven uh year over year remember the target here for the fed is two percent That being said, the way that inflation is tracked isn't necessarily perfect. And the two percent is pretty random number. I think that we'll have to keep an eye out on the economy. It does seem to be slowing, but we're nowhere near recession levels, especially if you look at something like jobless claims. We are always away from saying that we're in any type of recession. So there's still an argument to be made that Maybe rates are too high. Inflation isn't necessarily out of control. It's less than three percent. Pretty close, if you ask me, to the two percent target. And if you look at true inflation, which has been a pretty good indicator for what the next inflation report is going to tell us, it's what I used to tell you guys that inflation was probably going to be a bit hotter than expected in June. If you look at that indicator, we did end June at that high, which I've highlighted, but a two point two seven percent because two inflation and It doesn't use the same methodology as the formal numbers that the Fed relies on, uses. But inflation clocked in at two point two seven percent. But then you can see right after that, this is June twenty ninth. Right after that, it really fell dramatically to around one point six percent at the beginning of July. And now we're close to one point eight percent. So there has been improvement in the inflation picture. And if we can hold on to this for the rest of July, it is probable that the next reading will be cooler than the June reading. And if you look at the market, as I said, a bit of a pullback, you can see basically everything is in the red, with exception to Nvidia and a couple other chip stocks that sit on top of commerce and basically business activity are currently the kings of the market. Nvidia was up four percent today. And AMD was up six percent. A lot of people bullish on AMD. If you look at the essential company in the AI and really just the essential company of the future, Taiwan Semiconductor, this is what Nvidia uses to make its chips. And really the only company able to make Nvidia-like chips. And what companies the globe over rely on to make chips whenever they need it. Taiwan Semiconductors was up today, close to four percent. The other essential company in this process is ASML, and it was up a nice two percent. These are both companies that we hold at PIF. They've treated us well. This is the chart of Nvidia. Nvidia has been going up seemingly forever. That being said, it is at overbought territory, obviously. I mean, the recent catalyst was the lifting of some of the restrictions on Nvidia exports to China, which is expected to add around ten percent to the market cap or rather ten percent to the estimates for revenue for Nvidia. for the next twelve months. And so that's behind the pop in Nvidia's share price. That being said, when it was at similarly overbought territory in that similar period of last year, we did see a retracement here in Nvidia. It went from around one forty to just under ninety dollars. So we'll see if we see something similar. That being said, I wouldn't count on it. As I mentioned, Nvidia is is really the king of the AI revolution in terms of companies that are able to cash in, monetize this transition to AI, the insatiable demand there is for AI. NVIDIA is really the king of monetization of this transition. No one can do it like NVIDIA can with regards to its margins and the monopoly that it has on the market. Now, crypto, sorry, this says fear. Crypto is still in agreed territory, as you can see from the chart. We're right at seventy and You can see that previous local tops were in extreme greed territory, so we're not quite there yet. That being said, we may experience some consolidation. Certainly, seasonally, that is to be expected right around this time of year. But who knows? The schedule for everything has kind of been thrown off by the tariff announcements earlier this year and the volatility volatility that came from that and then some of the geopolitical events uh threw the markets off from their you know normal seasonal timing we'll see how the market how the market behaves for the rest of the year whether or not it conforms with previous years patterns pudgy penguins is up, as I mentioned, has tripled in the last month, actually more than tripled in the last month. But when you look at its market cap, two billion, it doesn't seem too too high up there there's definitely some room for additional appreciation I remember talking with pif members early this year and we were just going over our plan for the year and I mentioned that I thought it could get to ten billion um I didn't expect it to dip as much as it dipped obviously no one saw the the tariffs and the implications of that at the start of the year But that and, you know, just because it tripled doesn't necessarily mean that we should revise our earlier estimates for the top here. Now, that being said, I always like to, you know, take profits when you're sitting on a lot of profits just so that you can enjoy the rest of the ride a lot better. That being said, this is not financial advice, so be sure to do your own due diligence on this as always. It does seem like Solana and these penguins are popping up more and more everywhere you look. Solana today, I guess the official account of Solana, even though it should be a decentralized, but nothing's really decentralized except for maybe Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and a few others. The new official Solana meme coin, is it perhaps Pudgy Penguins? Solana is posting about Pudgy Penguins, which is always good to see if you're an investor in the Penguins. And with that being said, make sure to join PIF if you haven't already. Leave a like on this live. Really appreciate you guys. Whenever I tell you guys we're slacking on likes, you all put a like. So I really appreciate that. Last week, I said that in one of the lives and it got more than a hundred likes. So I really appreciate you guys doing that. I know it's like a small thing. It's kind of silly, but it means a lot. And so I appreciate you guys doing it. And with that, let's go to questions. Assalamu alaikum. Once NEO was in hype, jumped from seven dollars to fifty dollars and it's below four dollars for the last couple of years. By the way, I called that, if you'll recall, I called when it was fifty dollars I I called it going to sub ten dollars should it be sold and reinvest somewhere else same goes for lucid well the problem with these companies so I'll pull up neo the problem with this company is that if you'll notice it has a market cap of eight point eight seven billion. Great. So some of these companies, they really don't pass even the smell test. So. Cash and short term investments, thirty three billion. Which is what it's being valued at, however, and that is the reason why it has value is because of this cash. At the end of twenty twenty four, at least how much cash does it have now? Let's go quarterly. so oh that's not good so check this out and tell me if you want to be part of this so if you go to annual cash and short-term investments thirty feet by the way this is in chinese yuan so if you go to cash in short-term investment thirty three point eight four billion and then um so this is End of twenty twenty four, I'm guessing. So if you go to quarterly. So March of twenty twenty five. We're at nineteen point seven two billion. So that's not good when, you know, fourteen billion is burned. No longer on the books. If you look at let's look at their cash flow statement. So. If you look at the annual. net change in cash, negative ten billion last year. They're close to eleven billion. So this is a cash burning operation right now. As of today, this is a cash burning operation. If you look at net income, negative twenty two billion cash from operations, negative eight billion cash from investing, negative five billion cash from financing is the only thing that's positive. So it's taking out taking out loans or selling stock. I don't know how they're financing, but regardless of the method, it's not good for shareholders. And that change in cash, despite this financing, extra financing, was a negative eleven billion. So free cash flow, negative sixteen billion. So this seems like a cash burning machine. And there are, I don't know, fifty thousand public equities globally. why would I put my money in this one I mean maybe it pops I don't know I am in the future cannot be known uh and so you know maybe it pops I but in terms of you know visibility from where I am uh The probabilities don't suggest strongly that this is an investment that is going to do well, certainly not one that's going to outpace all of the other options that are out there. I'm not saying that it's impossible. I'm just saying in terms of probability, this doesn't seem probable. I don't like the odds. I don't like the risk-return ratio. ratio here. I think there are probably better risk return ratios out there. Not financial advice, do your own due diligence. Hamid says, Salam, brother. I hope you're doing well. And I hope the same for you, brother Hamid. Thank you for your questions and your comments. I really appreciate them. We all appreciate and thankful for your support. Thanks, Hamid. May Allah grow it to a million. Make it Sadaqah Jariyah for you. Thank you very much. That's really nice of you. Rashad, nice to see you, Rashad. Thank you so much for everything you do for our community, Rashad. It says, do you think PPI number tomorrow will make it worse or less important than CPI, I'm guessing? I think, I mean, it's tough to say. I don't think it's going to be, I'm hoping. I mean, it's tough to say. That being said, I'm not seeing major moves in prices that would cause me to be overly concerned. Yeah, maybe it's slightly hotter like today's number, or maybe it isn't. but I think the market will be able to digest. Maybe it consolidates, but I don't really see a huge dip triggered by these inflation numbers, inshallah. What happened to Biostem today? It went down, but there's no new news. So I'm not really concerned. Do you feel NVIDIA is a good long-term hold? The problem with NVIDIA, yes, I do think NVIDIA is a great company. The problem with NVIDIA is its connections with Israel. And so instead of investing in NVIDIA, we invested in other companies along the supply chain and we've done very well alhamdulillah can't complain hamid amiri says do miners thesis still intact yes inshallah or you feel they are being manipulated I do feel they're being manipulated for sure yeah so there's a lot of shenanigans going on behind the scenes so you know options activities and um shorts um and you know other you know derivative shenanigans that are playing around with the prices in the short term but over the long term the market is a weighing machine and the weight of each name will bear out in its price inshallah captain t someone I can brother I'm happy pif member well thank you and navigating my way around how to best utilize my membership How can members best mirror your portfolio platform-wise? Do you recommend a US platform? Robinhood's a good brokerage. Charles Schwab is a good brokerage. M-One Finance is a good brokerage. There's no shortage of brokers to use. Typically, if someone is just starting out, I kind of like to steer them the way of M-One Finance just because it doesn't allow day trading. There's only like two windows that you can trade in every day. one when the market opens and the other when the market closes so I feel like that enforces discipline which is important especially for beginners but you know all these brokerages are good options that I mentioned uh yes that's correct muhammad amr farooq I would also like to suggest some type of explanation to the terminology used in your charts and tables on the member site for those like myself to better understand. That's a good suggestion, brother. We do have some tool tips. If you hover over them, they give you an explanation. And also how I would invest a thousand dollars that goes out weekly. It starts, that email starts with an explanation of terms. That may help. But to your point, inshallah, we'll make the explanations more prominent. Malik says, do you consider insurance stocks halal? Well, generally speaking, I don't consider insurance to be haram. But I think for insurance stocks, it's relevant to look at what the insurance company is holding in terms of interest-bearing products. Oftentimes, they may have interest income or interest expense that break our two point five percent rule. If Bruce Wayne, if starting from scratch, you recommend start with PIF crypto or PIF growth first, or do you recommend a blend of both based on conviction rate? I would probably start with the blend, but obviously it depends on what your goals are. Crypto is more aggressive, but it's volatile. Growth is less aggressive and less volatile. So really, but I think, you know, having a blend of both certainly holding, you know, Bitcoin in a otherwise stock portfolio, I think will improve returns. At least it has for the last decade. So that's one way. I mean, you may decide to do a bit of a blend. Rashad, if you are JP, would you resign? If you stay, would you cut in July? That's an interesting question, Rashad. From a patriotic perspective, I would not resign. So if I feel like I am the best able to do the job, I may disagree with Jerome Powell, but you're asking me if I was in this place, if I feel like I'm best able to do the job, then, and, and, you know, it's a very important job, the, in a lot of ways, the health of the economy. and the livelihoods of many people are impacted by the decisions that are made in that job. If I feel like the course that I'm on is the best course of action, and I'm kind of being pushed out in order to put someone in place that is not going to take the best course of action that I am taking, then I wouldn't resign. If I get fired, that's fine. It's not my responsibility, but I wouldn't resign just to avoid the critique and the pressure because there's a greater good that's being served so you're asking me if I was in Jerome Powell's position that being said Trump is not making it easy for Jerome Powell to do his job and I do believe that he is trying to do his best and I don't believe that Trump um It really recognizes that. And, you know, when the less sophisticated you are, I think the more clearly you see things in sort of black and white terms. And I think Trump sees things in black and white terms. Everything is always so obvious to him because he doesn't really, you know, bother himself with nuance. and nuance is important. That being said, I'm not saying I agree with Jerome Powell, but I'm just saying that I don't see what he's doing as necessarily malicious, as it seems like Donald Trump is suggesting. I think he can make an argument for himself for why he's doing what he's doing. And yeah, you can make a respectable argument. So with that being said, thanks for tuning in, guys. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Become a PIF member. Join our community if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.