The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Finally a Recovery?

Rakaan Kayali

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Finally a Recovery?

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro and Market Recap
  • Trump Tariff Talks Impact Markets
  • Tesla’s Strength Ahead of Earnings
  • Lithium Stocks Rebound: What’s Driving It?
  • Tariffs on Chinese Lithium: Huge Catalyst
  • Chinese Miner Halts Production
  • Lithium Price Trends & Chart Analysis
  • Gold vs. Lithium Valuation Signal
  • Investment Outlook for Lithium Miners
  • EV Demand & Battery Expansion Needs
  • Patience and Opportunity in Lithium
  • Tesla Bull Case: Robotaxi, Storage, Energy
  • Viewer Q&A: Tesla Price Target & Catalysts

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salam@practicalislamicfinace.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.


As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. A bit of a pullback in the markets today after Trump started talking about tariffs again, but not anything too dramatic. The Russell was down point seven one percent, Dow Jones down point three two percent. S&P was flat. NASDAQ was flat. We did see MicroStrategy pull back six percent. Tesla remains probably the most resilient company out there, the most resilient stock out there when considering everything that it's had to deal with in terms of headlines and beefs that the CEO has with very powerful people and the tweets that he makes, the stock itself is performing quite well ahead of earnings that are expected to be not that great. So that's quite impressive. And I think really reflects the level of enthusiasm there is for the stock. But there's, let's call that flat. NVIDIA, flat as well. So let's look. Core weave was down seven percent. Silver was flat. Gold slightly up. We'll talk about gold. It's sort of relevant to the topic of today. Bitcoin is at one hundred and seventeen thousand. We started off the day, by the way, super, super strong. But because, you know, Trump woke up and decided to speak, we've pulled back. But I think we'll resume, inshallah, our climb. Doge is on a pretty healthy run. It's now at twenty three cents. pudgy penguins, Tom Lee actually changed his profile pic to a pudgy penguin. It is at three cents per token. All right, so let's talk about what I want to talk about today, which is, is it possible could it be that we are witnessing a recovery in lithium prices and therefore a recovery is due for lithium stocks let's talk about this so this is how the market looked today look at this one bright spot here that is Tesla doing quite well and as I mentioned Dow closed a bit down today After a report says Trump is seeking at least. Fifteen percent tariff. On EU imports. Expect a lot of volatility. So could we get another lithium rally. We all remember the. Twenty twenty one rally. And twenty twenty rally. How they lifted. Lithium stocks. Could we get something similar. This time around. Well we do have. pretty big catalyst that was announced yesterday. US set to impose ninety three point five percent tariff on battery material from China. One of those battery materials being lithium. And China being the biggest producer of lithium in the world. And was really causing supply to outpaced demand. And therefore, if a healthy tariff is tacked on to lithium imports from China, lithium-based companies in the United States could really be positioned to benefit immensely from that. And then when it rains, it pours in a good way and in a bad way. This time around in a good way for lithium. Chinese miner had to halt, Zhang, had to halt lithium production at subsidiary after government order. Apparently not all of its papers were in order, I guess. And they were told to stop mining. And that is good for decreasing supply. Lithium prices have been recovering. If you look, even really since June, they bottomed out and they've been recovering even before the announcement of the tariffs on the better materials. They've been recovering in quite a healthy fashion. at quite a healthy rate. And they're still nowhere near what they were just one year ago, which is nowhere near what they were three years ago. But we're headed in the right direction. That is definitely good to see. If you look at something like Piedmont Lithium, that is up close to thirty percent in the last month. And if you're looking at lithium stocks yesterday, they were pumping in a big way. Again, today we got the macro or rather I would say just headlines not working in our favor. But lithium stocks seem to be starting a run here. It's still unclear how much oversupply there is. I read about some shipments of lithium sitting at the docks that represent oversupply that are going to take a while to... to get through. But things are headed in the right direction for sure. And if you look at gold versus lithium, this is an interesting chart. So if you look at gold versus lithium, whether it's gold versus lithium carbonate, or a gold versus lithium producers basket. That's what's in the fushi color. It does appear to be approaching local highs, if you will. So gold has appreciated relative to lithium. to an extent that resembles previous local highs, which suggests that perhaps a faster appreciation in lithium may be ahead if this were to revert to the mean. Obviously, there's no guarantee that it does revert to the mean, but it is interesting to look at. I'll leave it at that. I won't you know, give it more weight than it needs. And so I think that lithium, for people who are waiting on lithium to move, I think that, you know, the period that we waited is a lot longer than the period that is remaining for us to wait. And when I get more clarity about supply lines, I mean, a lot of these miners are really, really attractively valued. And so it's hard for me. But at the same time, there's still, if you read industry reports, there's still some supply inventory that we need to go through in order for prices to really recover in a strong way. Now, anticipation of price recovery may be all that we need, but if we're looking for an actual price recovery, we need to get through the oversupply that's on the market right now. How quickly we get through it, I think we'll have more clarity in the weeks and months ahead, but If that's a place that interests you in terms of investing, I think there's a lot of good deals on the market right now in terms of companies operating in the space. Valuations have been depressed even after their recovery. Valuations still remain depressed, but it would require some patience. But eventually, I think that the transition to electric vehicles, robotaxis being everywhere, they're going to require a lot of batteries. And those batteries are getting bigger and bigger in terms of size and in terms of the materials that are required that amount is becoming larger and larger. And so eventually production needs to increase for lithium and it cannot increase still at these prices. So prices need to go up further in order for new projects to be developed and new investments to be made. And so that leads me to believe that prices will go up. And as I mentioned, I think what we've waited is a lot longer than what is remaining for us to wait in order to get a full recovery here it's not going to be as strong I think as twenty twenty twenty twenty one but it'll be strong I think there's some you know healthy profits to be made there that being said if you enjoy these lives do leave a like join pif if you haven't become a member yet Salam alaikum Dr Khaled Jamal Mubarak is a pullback on Tesla expected ahead of their earnings report or is it priced in already well it does seem like people are pretty excited about what's going to come out of earnings and I also think that there's a lot of following the RoboTaxi rollout by sophisticated investors. And even though it may not be making headlines, really no news is excellent news with regards to this experiment. That means things are going well. And I think it won't be long before they increase the area of the experiment once more. And then it's going to continue to accelerate and follow that S curve that investors love to see with these new technologies. And so we're going to see a rapid ramp up. There's going to be a lot of catalysts ahead, I think, inshallah, not only with the ramp ups, We'll get the new lower model vehicle. We'll get humanoid robots reaching new milestones. We're already hearing about the growth of the energy storage business, which is the most profitable business that Tesla has. And we'll get more color on that in the earnings report. There is a lot to be bullish on with regards to Tesla. I think, you know, conservatively, we're in the five hundreds by the end of this year. Conservatively, we may be more than that. So, you know, we're early three hundreds. So that's not quite a doubling, but near a doubling. We only have like five, six months that not investment advice, not financial advice, but that's how I see things shaping up for the rest of this year inshallah from Turkey I hope you're doing well to everyone thank you for tuning in leave a like as I mentioned thank you all for the likes I saw the uptake and likes really appreciate that Make sure to enjoy your weekend. Spend time with family. Enjoy the sun as much as possible. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.