
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Clear Skies Ahead for Market
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Clear Skies Ahead for Market
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro & Updates
- Fed Rate Cut & Market Reaction
- Tesla’s RoboTaxi Revolution
- Bitcoin & Altcoin Season Outlook
- Bitdeer’s Edge in Bitcoin Mining
- CRMD Stock & Dilution Concerns
- Dogecoin & Solana ETF Prospects
- Final Thoughts & Community Q&A
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinace.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, September the seventeenth. And for those of you who have missed me, I have missed you as well. And the reason why I haven't been going live is I have been more active on X. And I just really like X because I can sort of distill for followers, you know, exactly the idea that I want to communicate to them in as few words as possible so if you aren't following us on x be sure to do so a lot of great nuggets on there every day and you can expect from me inshallah at least two to three lives every week let's say a minimum of two I'll shoot for you know two to three, depending on how much events are going on. You know, is there a need to go live? Is there some substantial changes that have happened? Because what I want to do is I want to deliver as much value to you as possible. and take up as little of your time as possible as well. So I want to maximize efficiency here in terms of delivering value. So sometimes that will be live. Sometimes that will be through X. Sometimes it will be through the newsletter that you will occasionally receive. But thank you all for tuning in. Really appreciate it. I really appreciate all the emails that I got and the messages asking where I was. And Today is a great day to come back because the market is doing exceptionally well, especially our picks, alhamdulillah. The Fed decided to cut rates by twenty five basis points, which was the move that most people expected. And additionally, they signaled and we'll see that in the dot plot shortly, we'll see that they are expecting another fifty base point cut, either in the form of one cut or two twenty five cuts, two twenty five base point cuts by the end of this year. And so the market's really like this. It did seem like Powell had a dovish tone in his presser after the decision. And a lot of risk assets are rallying in a big way. What I have showing on the screen right now is Bitdeer Technologies, which is one of those stocks that I am becoming more and more convinced is a mispriced asset that has a lot of upside to it. They have a lot of moonshots going on and their execution has been very good. They do have a short report that came out about them a while ago, and I think that's keeping pressure on their stock price. They also are not necessarily in the most And the part of the market that investors are most excited about right now, which is AI and HPC, they are in Bitcoin mining. And the Bitcoin mining business has been a very tough business. And Bitcoin miners have been migrating away from Bitcoin mining into AI and HPC. now what this is going to do and why this makes the bit their opportunity I think even bigger is that now bitcoin mining is ultimately a zero-sum game uh you have blocks uh that are giving out rewards and depending on how much competition there are for that block uh their rewards are going to be distributed amongst the competitors. And so it's basically a fixed amount of rewards that's being distributed amongst everyone who's competing for it. And so over time that is, and therefore the less competition, the less players there are, the more the share of the remaining players becomes and so over time this space is going to consolidate and any edge that any player in the space has is going to compound with time and it's going to enable them to get a bigger and bigger piece of the pie and so we're going to be talking about the deer's edge in this live another stock that has been performing very well as of late is tesla Tesla is our biggest position and it has been doing very well. And I honestly think this is just a fraction of what is to come. I mean, the days of Tesla going sideways for extended periods of time. In fact, for the last three, four years, it's been doing nothing but going sideways. Basically, those days are basically behind us. And I'm going to tell you exactly why that is the case. Does not say there won't be volatility. I don't want to, you know, get people's, you know, too excited. But honestly, I don't think it's possible to get too excited about the possibilities for this stock. I do think that they have a a chance at getting at it to a ten trillion dollar valuation. In fact, I think they could get to a twenty trillion dollar valuation and they're currently sitting on a one trillion dollar valuation. So there's a lot of upside there. Gold is at thirty six hundred and Bitcoin is at one hundred and sixteen thousand. And if you look at the Performance of the cryptos in this sample, we have Pudgy Penguins up close to six percent, Doge's up four and a half, Solana's up three, Ethereum two, and Bitcoin, let's call that flat. And so when you have that distribution, which is basically returns are inversely related to market cap. This is kind of telling you that we are approaching altcoin season and we are definitely in a risk on. we are in a risk on mood in the market. So with that being said, if you haven't followed us on PIF Invest, our handle is PracticalIF. uh make sure you do so and it's looking like clear skies ahead for the market after today's fed meeting now this is not to say there won't be volatility there will always be volatility but generally speaking if you're looking at a short medium term even longer longerish term then things are looking very bullish So this is what the dot plot looked like today. And this is basically where every Fed committee member thinks that the rates should be by the end of this year. And we can see the most amount of dots are in that three point five to three seventy five region. And so that takes us about fifty basis points away from where we are right now. Now, the newly appointed Fed committee member whose tenure actually expires in January and they received their tenure, they were appointed by Trump, only received tenure because one of the committee members resigned. And so they're going to be replaced, but they'll be replaced likely by someone who's very dovish. They thought that today's cut should have been fifty basis points. Now, if you look at Trump and where he thinks Interest rates should be, he's all the way down at two twenty five to two fifty. And so so way below where the rest of the committee thinks. Needless to say, I think the monetary policy moving forward is likely to be. Loosening as opposed to tightening, unless, of course, we get some, you know, inflation shock or something like black swan-ish happens, that causes sentiment to change entirely regarding these targets for interest rates. So that's good for risk assets. When interest rates go down, obviously, bonds become less attractive because they're yielding less, but also debt becomes less expensive. And so it's easier for companies to raise money. It's easier for individuals to raise money and buy products that require financing. And so it's typically reflects positively on earnings and economic activity and stocks typically go up. And the more bullish people are, the more far along the risk curve, the assets start to benefit and appreciate. And typically, these are lower market cap. So small caps, crypto, if we're talking crypto, we're talking altcoins down the down the cap ranking, those are the assets that typically tend to do the best in when sentiment is solidly bullish and monetary policy is expected to be looser with time. Now let's look at some of the main constituents of our holdings. So Tesla is winning the robo taxi competition and it's really not even close. And I said this for the longest time, people kept saying, what about Waymo? What about X? What about Y? What about Z? None of them matter. This is a winner take all situation. You know, maybe we get competition from China. That's the most likely source. But none of these other all these other players are burning cash for no good reason at all. They might as well just wire me to cash and I'll put it to use. I'll buy Tesla shares with them. So, this is one user who went across downtown Austin in a Tesla Robotaxi. It's one-fifth the price of an Uber. So, whereas an Uber would be twelve dollars, and this is just a regular Uber. It's not the Comfort or the Uber XL. Whereas that would be actually closer to thirteen dollars. The Tesla was... And by the way, the regular Tesla is going to be way nicer than the UberX. The proper comparison would be with a comfort level, or even with an Uber XL. So it's even less expensive than one-fifth the cost of an Uber. And in fact, if you juxtapose all the major players, so Uber, Waymo, Lyft, and here's another sort of anecdote. This is, let's call it a one-and-a-half-mile route. And Robotaxi was... just shy of four dollars in uber it's close to ten dollars waymo it's close to twenty one and a half dollars it lift it's close to eleven dollars so that's a crazy difference I mean the difference between uh two eighty two per mile in a robo taxi versus seven dollars and thirty that's the closest competitor uber per mile Lyft is right around eight dollars per mile Waymo is at just in La La Land at sixteen dollars per mile and it has a six minute wait versus the robo taxi's five minute wait and with more robo taxis on the road as this network expands this wait time is going to go down and it's going to be on par with what Uber and Lyft are right now they already have the cars they just need to switch on the robo taxi and are moving on to crypto here so I I can't emphasize this enough like if you're waiting for more evidence that tesla is going to and this is not financial advice but if you need more and you still don't get it then you're probably not going to get it but you're going to be late on tesla this thing is These cars, these Tesla cars are going to become money printing machines on wheels. So there's two things from that. You want to load up your bags on Tesla shares, not financial advice. This is what I'm doing. Load up your bags and Tesla shares and probably want to own the Tesla if you can. And once you're satisfied with how many Tesla shares you own. Again, nothing is financial advice. I'm just telling you what I would do. All right. So our picks continue to climb the ranks in the crypto world. So Solana is, if you look at the last seven days, up close to ten percent. Dogecoin is up close to sixteen percent. And oh, by the way, we're just getting started. The treasuries are coming. We had forward industries launched a four billion dollar investment. uh project to acquire solana so that's going to be a very solid bid on the price of solana and even dogecoin is starting to get digital asset treasuries and so we had a clean core clean core solutions uh ticker symbol zone they acquired another hundred million dollars uh yesterday or the day before, a hundred million of Doge. And they now have, I'm sorry, they acquired a hundred million Doge. They now have over six hundred million Doge. So and they have a target of reaching one billion Doge by the end of this month. There's a lot of dilution, obviously, that you have to account for in these digital asset treasuries. And so It's not as easy as just comparing market cap with underlying net asset value. You want to compare market cap with fully diluted asset value per share, and that will give you an idea of how expensive or cheap the shares are. But this is very positive for these two tokens that we've been bullish on for a while now. I do expect ETFs to be approved for both of these tokens. By the end of the year, additional ETFs for Solana and first ETF for Dogecoin. And that's going to allow institutional players to buy these tokens more easily. It's going to allow people to own it in their brokerage accounts and they don't have to worry about Coinbase is down. and you know markets are up so they decided to close down the exchange for whatever reason like happens with coinbase every bull run so you don't have to worry about that if you own an etf but there's probably a management fee it should be something that's very small especially if you have many etfs like in the case of solana there's going to be a lot of competition between them so that will drive the management fee down but these etfs do promise to to be a constant bid a consistent bid for these prices for these tokens which should provide a floor for their prices and reduce volatility Now, the third position that I'd like to talk to you today about is Bitdeer and their execution is nothing short of impressive. In the last twenty four, forty eight hours, they launched their A three. This is their Bitcoin miner. They had as as they promised, the power efficiency is twelve and a half joules per terahash. I think at one point they were saying it was going to be twelve joules per terahash. So very close to what they were targeting. But they got there and they're entering mass production for these A-threes. And what's really great about this is that they can load up because right now they have their Bitcoin mining rigs are basically on par with the most efficient out there. So. they basically when they're producing these mining rigs they have the option to just add to their own fleet add to their own bitcoin mining operations and not sell them and only sell them after they've exhausted their own capacity to use the these bitcoin mining machines which as I mentioned are more efficient than anything out there they're on the bleeding edge of what's available and with their a fours which are expected to come out in a few months that they will have surpassed all of the competition now this is a zero-sum game bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game so If you're getting more efficient and others are stagnating or degrading in terms of their equipment, which is what's happening with most public Bitcoin miners. They're leaving the Bitcoin mining space. They're going for HPC and AI. If this is happening, your share of the pie is increasing. And so I believe... Bitdeer has a shot at becoming the largest Bitcoin miner on planet Earth. It has a shot at doing that. If not the largest, one of the largest. And as such, it would make Bitdeer the company, the public company with the most, or the public Bitcoin mining company, let me say, with the most leverage to bitcoin's price so it will benefit the most from appreciation in bitcoin we're at a hundred thousand right now in bitcoin a lot of people are saying we get seven hundred and fifty maybe a million by the end of this decade and so this thing could do very well for it. And not only that, selling the rigs themselves is a good business. You're talking about gross margins, I would estimate around fifty percent gross margins. And these margins are very sensitive to the profit that miners are making. So when the Bitcoin price is going up, people are willing to pay more for the Bitcoin mining rigs and therefore the margins can expand. When The margins aren't that attractive. They can add to their own fleet and do their own Bitcoin mining profitably because they don't have to share because they're going to get their mining rigs at cost. Everyone else who isn't vertically integrated, any other Bitcoin miner who isn't vertically integrated has to pay part of their margin to the rig manufacturers like Bitdeer. Bitdeer is vertically integrated, doesn't have to do that. And so they can remain profitable longer than anyone else can when the Bitcoin price is going down. And so that's going to allow it to consolidate its position and gain more and more network share with time. And the snowball will get bigger and bigger. And so I really think that this is something, yes, the market is not really that hype about Bitcoin mining anymore. all eyes are on ai and hbc but I really think that this is a a a moonshot that could really work and by the way the a-fours they're advertising efficiency of basically double the efficiency so six joules per tera hash is what they're is what they're shooting for for their a-fours so And that would put them head and shoulders above the competition. So this is something that I think is going to play out very nicely for this company. And oh, by the way, they also have HPC. They have AI operations. They have a pretty solid location in Ohio. Maybe we'll get something about that. this quarter in their last earnings call they did mention that there was some movement there so they have a number of moonshots but what I really like about this company is that its execution has been solid they've basically delivered on time what they've um what they advertised they would deliver and their they're providing weekly updates on their Bitcoin mind. If you look at that weekly update, their Bitcoin mind is basically going vertical because they are gaining more and more share. of the Bitcoin network. So very exciting stuff from Bitdeer. So this is the Bitdeer thesis summarized. This is why I like X because I can just distill my thoughts in as few words as possible. So Bitdeer's in-house ASIC manufacturing gives it an enormous edge since Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game. Any edge is going to compound over time as weaker miners get pushed out. If Bitdeer executes and builds the most efficient rigs as planned, they could become the most leveraged mining play on BTC's price. And so that's really the Bitdeer thesis. They have a bunch of other stuff. And oh, by the way, the ASIC technology that they have and recycling the charge, which they're advertising, which should... bear fruit in their a four design that could have other implementations and beyond bitcoin mining and and they have patents around this technology so I really think that I mean it's a long shot it's not something that you know you're going to see any movement on in the near term so maybe it takes a year or two for this to play out but if they have know proprietary technology that could make you know asics more energy efficient then you know the sky is the limit here so I like this play I don't know if I've mentioned that before but I like this play uh if you haven't become a pif member yet now's the time to get interested in investing because things are popping off Things are appreciating at a rapid rate. Money is being made. You should be part of it. But also you should be part of it in a halal conscious way. And that's what we try to do at PIF. So that's my pitch. Let's go to questions. I missed you guys. And so I will be. going through everything we have inshallah all right so Zaid says we're back yes indeed we're back thanks for tuning in Zaid welcome based on my goal I'm asking this question our sole derivative pick target price reduced from day one uh is your conviction the same yeah so the reduction is because of anticipated dilution it's doing good today I think it'll do well I wouldn't worry about it inshallah Thanks, Amin. Salim, do you think Bitdeer will outperform Iron in market cap? It's tough to say. Iron has been a beast. But I think the potential is there and things can change very quickly. But I certainly think it has some moonshots that could get it there. But it's certainly not in season like iron is. Hamoos says, Salam, my discord is not resolved. Please help me. Okay. Inshallah, we'll take a look at that. uh I mean says rakan back after the rate cut it's like gandalf on a white horse at dawn of helm's deep battle okay I'll have to look up that reference uh hamed salim are you planning on buying more tesla soon or is it too late it is not too late I do plan on buying more um and likely it will be a rotation of some of the funds that we have in crypto putting that into tesla What do you think of Tesla's new average range for twenty twenty five Q four and twenty twenty six Q one? It's tough to say, but honestly, nothing would surprise me because. If you see things the way I see them. You would not be surprised to see this trading at a thousand dollars a share in a few months. Okay. There's no limit to the cash generation potential that could come from this robo taxi thing. Like I said, it's like having, you know, two million money printing machines on the road. You want to own a piece of that network. And so this thing could go parabolic at any time. And that's why you saw me in PIF. I kept adding to Tesla position, even though it wasn't really moving. And I kept holding onto it for a long time, even though it wasn't really moving, because in my mind, this thing could pop. I mean, at any moment, it's just a matter of when does the market realize what, what we're dealing with. And so I don't know how long it's going to take the market to realize that it's, I thought, you know, maybe in the beginning when they started their robotaxi experiment in Austin, as soon as proof of concept was there, people would start realizing, extrapolating. But no, it's taking them longer than that. And so I don't care if it takes longer than that. than it needs to, that's fine because that just gives us more time to buy more. And all I care about is what happens eventually. And eventually I think this thing is gonna skyrocket. Any update on CRMD, I'm curious why it's dropping. The reason why it's dropping is because it filed a SEC thing, a form that allows it, that proposes to or it's going to put this proposal to shareholders it's letting the sec know that the twenty percent just about twenty percent cap on dilution be removed um and so investors didn't like that this thing is shorted I mentioned this on x yesterday this thing is shorted to the tune of like fifty percent on any given day And so this works both ways. It means that anything that's slightly negative about the company is going to be exaggerated on the way down it also means that anything that's positive you know they come out with uh the upgrade to their earnings estimate that's going to skyrocket it up as shorts get burned so this thing works both ways in my mind dilution is not necessarily a negative dilution is only a negative if the funds are not used appropriately if the funds are used to um build more value than it's a longer term positive. So if we raise, you know, a hundred million dollars and we end up, you know, let's say buying, making an acquisition that adds two hundred million dollars to our valuation, then that's good dilution. I'll take that dilution at any on any day. And the fact of the matter is that when the dilution happens or news of its coming happens, investors are typically bearish. And then they wait to see how the funds are used, and that will either make up for the loss or not. or not. In the case of CoreMedix, I think their performance as a management has been quite good. If you look at their acquisitions that they've made recently, I think they bought them at good prices, good multiples. They're going to be accretive for shareholders. And therefore, I trust that in the event this cap is lifted, and by the way, it's not necessarily going to be lifted. It has to be put to a shareholder vote. But if this cap is lifted and what is expected is that this cap is being asked to be lifted because there's plans to do some dilution and there is dilution, then I fully expect that management is going to perform like it has in the past and the stock will be just fine. What I care about is Is the business doing well? And from what I can tell, they're basically the only game in town. They have a few suppliers that they have to deal with. So that gives them concentration risk, but it also sort of eases the process. You don't have to, you know, sell your product as many times and I think that if you look at the total addressable market it's much bigger than what they've so far addressed. And therefore, there's a lot of runway there. And so long as that's the case, I'm still bullish on the stock. You did see me bring down our target prices a bit. And the reason I did that is because I'm just accounting for dilution. But our target prices are still way above where we are right now, inshallah. So I'm not really worried about that. salamat hear me dear cool thank you for the welcome back really appreciate it salamat amin bear market after this cycle top will be a bloodbath inshallah it will not be for us And everyone who is good in this world. How sustainable is it to offer a fifth price of Uber when a Tesla car costs is around thirty five K. So I think it's very sustainable. It really depends on what is the marginal cost for every additional ride. And I think the fact of the matter is, you know, with an electric vehicle, you're going to get a better per mile cost than you are with a gas guzzler. Not to mention the maintenance costs and, you know, changing the oil and all of those other costs that come with a gas powered vehicle. And so I think that it is absolutely this. I think this advantage in price is absolutely phenomenal. And also, if you're comparing, let's say, with Waymo, you're saying a Tesla car is costing around thirty five K if you come. I'm assuming you're referring to the robot taxi in its final form. If you compare with the Waymo that talking about north of one hundred K. And so there's just no I think that this advantage is real. It's sustainable. And honestly, I think that the future is going to be one where people a lot of people opt not to own cars because it's so cheap just to hail a ride. And you don't have to worry about insurance for the car. You don't have to worry about parking it. You don't have to worry. It's less expensive per ride, per mile than a user-operated vehicle. So Yeah, you're going to see a lot less parking lots in the future because a lot less people are going to be parking their cars where they need to go. And that's probably good. No one likes to look at a parking lot. Maybe they can make these parking lots into parks or things that bring joy to people. That would be nice. Yeah. Amin says, so are you now thinking of going live less but longer? Yeah, probably. That's kind of how I'm thinking about it. And then for the sort of short sort of nuggets of insight, you can see those on X, inshallah, or LinkedIn. But I only post there because I can through my social media manager. It's just the same thing. You put the content in one place and you can post it everywhere. But I highly recommend not being on linkedin places is cringe and it's one of the places where you know I think the world would be a lot better off without um everyone's like humble bragging and like trying to be just this toxic culture of look at me and look at what I've accomplished. So cringe. Uh, so yeah. Uh, call it says thoughts on zone. So it's tempting. I have to say it's tempting. Um, so zone is the, um, is clean core. It's the ticker for CleanCore Corporation, which is the Dogecoin. It used to make cleaning stuff, and now it's a Dogecoin treasury, a new management. And actually, Elon Musk's lawyer is, I think he's chairman of the board. So that's obviously, I mean, the guy is well-connected. And so when you're building a treasury company, you definitely want access to investors. I think probably their chairman was put in that place because he has exactly that. So that's good. They also have connections with the Dogecoin Foundation. That's good. I do like Dogecoin as an asset. That's good. There's the matter of dilution and they sold a hundred and seventy five million warrants for and basically the conversion price is at a dollar. So basically you're looking at I mean, this is a this is a company with fourteen million shares right now. I don't know how much of that is warrants that have already been converted, but you're looking at let's assume all of them are warrants have a hundred and sixty five million more shares. If, you know, they all converted at the same time, one hundred and sixty five million more shares, you know, entering the market. So, you know, right now it's trading at a deep discount to net asset value because the diluted number, the fully diluted asset per share is is less than one, I believe. And so it makes sense. So this is why I said, like with Dogecoin treasuries, you have to be aware of what dilution is coming down the pike. But in the case of these types of companies, it's very likely that these warrants aren't always converted all at once, and perhaps they remain for many years. And in fact, the chairman of the board I was talking about, Iram Asloyer, he has a vesting schedule for his shares that start from October fifth and extend for twelve months. And so he has an interest in the share price appreciating with time. That being said, and so I do think that this is going to be very, very volatile, but you know, extended runs are essentially capped by the amount of dilution that's likely going to happen when the price appreciates. So I don't know why they priced it at one dollar. It seems like, you know, basically allowing one hundred and seventy five million shares to be added to circulating supply. But that's what they did. That's why you need to be cognizant of. And so Just know that. Now, most people in the market have no idea what I just said. They don't review SEC filings. They don't know. And so they'll probably just look at the market cap and compare it to how much Doge they have and say, oh, hey, this is at a discount. And if the price of Doge is going up, they'll get more and more excited about it. And maybe you see a pop in price. But I just think extended periods of runs are going to be capped, you know, at least for the next few months. Although, you know, we may get, you know, a solid run on this name, you know, when all season peaks. But extended runs are going to be capped by the amount of dilution that happens. And therefore, there's going to be a lot of volatility. And so that's something to keep in mind. me dear cool we need more of this live that this is the way to catch up ask questions keep it regularly or if you can't make it if you can give some updates in group that would be a great help yeah um definitely inshallah in discord uh you'll have updates from me regularly for sure a bit they're showing non-compliant uh I don't know. You have to tell me the reason why they're showing. Different screeners will show different, will use slightly different methodologies. Are you expecting any big dips to keep accumulating? I do expect big dips, but I'm not necessarily waiting for big dips. I think a lot more money is lost waiting for a dip than actually in the dip. So long as you don't sell in the dip, if you know what you own and you hold it through the trough, then you'll be on to higher highs and everything will be good. Revealing our picks not in this group is good, but this is the only way to interact with or can and get answers. Since this court is full, there are some questions ignored there. That's not really true, brother. It's not necessary that every question gets answered, but I think the most prominent questions do get answered. And so, yeah, maybe not every thought that every member has is going to be answered in Discord, but definitely the big moves like Core Medics had a comment on there. on discord yesterday I would appreciate it if not all of our picks are revealed here because that's how we make a living and um our portfolios and their picks are proprietary as well as our um our price targets hopefully I get to a point where I don't need to and I'll just you know give out this service for free. But at this particular point, our business still needs to generate revenue in order to stay alive. And so yeah, let's keep our pics and details in our Discord and in our community and continue to provide value here as much as possible for people that maybe can't afford to become a community or part of our community or maybe are thinking about it and would just like to sort of sample what we can provide. Gixxer says, welcome back, sir. Thank you for your insight. Greatly appreciated. Well, thank you so much for your comment. Really appreciated that. Needle Pro Australia. I'm like, I've been out of touch. Did you let. So let's not talk about the individual positions, as I mentioned. I mean, says getting banned on the Tesla app would be dystopian. Yeah, that's true. Rich Tech. I'm not familiar, Mohamed, but wa'alaikumussalam. Thank you for your comment. Thank you, everyone, for tuning in. We're at ninety people, which is great. I was promised by someone that we'd get a hundred likes on the live, so make sure we get to a hundred likes if you enjoyed this live, if you liked it. And until next time, be sure to take care of yourself. Become an API member if you haven't already. And Until next time, assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.