As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. It's been a while since I've done one of these lives, but I figured, considering the state of the market, it was appropriate for me to do one.

And I would like to share my thoughts on what's happening and hopefully provide some clarity. I know that some people may be panicked, they may be upset, they may be afraid. And hopefully this live helps alleviate some of these emotions. 

I understand that investing is not always a smooth journey to the top. In fact, if it was, then a lot more people would be successful at it. The reason why people often fail or have suboptimal results is that precisely times like these throw them off of their plan, throw them off of the trajectory that they would have been on, because they end up doing rash things that they later regret.

So hopefully this live helps you avoid a similar outcome. With that being said, let's just take a lay of the land and see where we are in terms of stocks and cryptos. So the index that has pulled back the most, that has been punished the most by the market recently is the Nasdaq. 

We went from around 26,000 to now 24,500 for the Nasdaq. Not a terrible drawdown, not something unprecedented, but certainly painful. If you look at the S&P, we went from close to 7,000 to now 6,800. 

Again, not something to really write home about. If you take it into context, if you zoom out, if you're not hyper-focused on the performance in the last three days and you zoom out a bit, this is certainly a place that we've been before. Dow Jones is pretty much flat. 

I mean, it's maybe peaked at 49.5, it's now 49.1. So nothing that would cause concern there. With regards to the Russell, we peaked at around 270, we're now 257. So I just want to show you guys this yearly chart and put things really into context. 

Yes, we're not at our all-time highs, but we're not too far removed from it either. The VIX is at 20, which is elevated compared to where we were a week ago, where we have been since the start of 2026, when we started close to 13 for the VIX. But at 20, we're certainly not in crisis mode. 

We've had higher readings as recent as November and October, and certainly nothing close to what we had in April of last year, where we peaked at north of 50 for the VIX. That's the volatility index, for those who are unfamiliar. And that being said, the volatility index is up quite a bit today. 

But again, we're still not at levels that would cause us to say this is something unprecedented. We've never seen something like this before. MicroStrategy and everything related to Bitcoin really has been absolutely getting smashed. 

Down 14% today, MicroStrategy is, which is to be expected, considering that they are a Bitcoin treasury company. Tesla is down 1%. Bitdeer, a Bitcoin miner, is down close to 7%. 

CLSK, CleanSpark, is down 12%. Nvidia is in the green. TSM is in the green. 

And solar energy provider Enphase is down 7.5%. CRISPR is down close to 6%. So really, the blue chip stocks are faring decently today. It's the high beta stocks that are really getting punished. 

Silver and gold are down. So silver, after being north of 100, is now back down to 75. This is a brutal chart, if you bought near the top here. 

As we said in our PIF community, we weren't going to be touching silver, even after we were asked many times, because I do believe that reversion to the mean is a very powerful thing. And even if it takes a while to manifest, well, eventually it will. And that's what we've experienced with gold. 

We also had a pretty, pretty strong drawback, or drawdown. So peaking closer to 5,500, now we're at 4,800, which is a lot for a store of value like gold that people run to in times of volatility. But it has exhibited a lot of volatility. 

Really, what we're seeing in the market is that all sort of previous correlations, all previous descriptions of assets are being challenged constantly. And speaking of volatility, and in the case of Bitcoin, really, volatility in only one way, and that is downwards. Since basically we peaked in early October, we've just been sliding down the graph here.

With occasional breaks, but down has been the overall direction. Bitcoin down 10% today, or in the last 24 hours, I should say. 10% is a lot for Bitcoin in 24 hours. 

We're at 66,000. Ethereum is below 2,000. Solana is below 100, now it's 80. 

Doge is below 10 cents. Everything is getting absolutely hammered. Pengu is now at 0.006. So everything is getting slaughtered.

So with regards to crypto, it hasn't held up as well as stocks have, but that's to be expected because you can consider crypto to be sort of on the tail end of the risk curve. And so when things go down, the tail end ends up going down a lot more than the middle of the curve. And so that is to be expected. 

And so what I want to emphasize in this live is sort of a bigger picture view of things so that we don't make the wrong decision. So very bluntly, don't be stupid. It's important to put things in context.

So first of all, in terms of fear and greed with regards to crypto, we're at a reading of 11, which is extreme fear. And we've been at extreme fear territory four times now in the last 12 months. So we've been here in October. 

We've been here in the February, March and April period of 2025 as well. And in all cases, things eventually got better. Prices eventually rebounded. 

Now, I'm not saying this is going to be a slingshot back to all time highs. Certainly not. We may consolidate for a few months, but it is certainly true that these types of dips in sentiment have been experienced before and we have recovered from them. 

So let's not forget that. And let's also remember that when we are not overcome with emotion, we understand that the proper way to approach investing is to bias towards buying when people are fearful and bias towards selling when people are greedy or extremely greedy. And we're now in extreme fear territory.

And so now theory is put to the test. Do you actually follow through on what you hold to be true in times when you're not emotional or do you convince yourself that this time is different? With regards to alts in crypto, basically everything, if you look at just the last month, you know, almost everything has been halved really. Render is down 44 percent.

Um, virtuals is down 48.6 percent. Bonk is down 46 percent. Solana is down 40 percent close to sui's down 49 percent. 

Pudgy penguins down 48.7 percent. So a lot of alts that were considered, you know, top quality have basically halved in just the last month. So it's been a bloodbath really with regards to alts and crypto. 

And with regards to Bitcoin, there's only two times in the last 15 years, basically, where we've had five months in a row of negative performance for Bitcoin. So if you look in 2011, July, August, September, October, November, all red. And then December was positive 55 percent for Bitcoin. 

In 2018, we had five months of red and then a sixth month of red in January of 2019, followed by five months of green. And now again, we have five months of consecutive red performance if February ends up being a down month. And so if history is any guide and we do have February as a as a down month, then, you know, March could be extremely positive or it could be slightly negative in the case of 2019, down another eight percent. 

But then it goes on a five months win streak. It's possible that that happens, not guaranteed, but, you know, typically history rhymes. And when you have in a 15 year span, only two cases of five consecutive months of down performance, then when you have five consecutive months of down performance, I think, you know, statistically, at least probabilities of a green month are high. 

And when you look at the MVRVZ score, we are now in this green territory, which has historically this looks at the market value versus realized value for Bitcoin. Historically, this has been a good time to to buy. Certainly, the upside seems to outweigh the downside at this point. 

That being said, I'm not saying that we're going to slingshot back into, you know, all time highs. We may have a few months of consolidation. But I think, you know, right now we're at sixty five thousand sixty six thousand.

I think maybe, you know, if I had to guess and it's kind of a fool's errand to do it, but I'll do it for entertainment purposes at least. Probably low 60s, high 50s is where we bottom. If I had to guess. 

And, you know, maybe we chop there for a while before we start heading upwards again. That being said, I mean, long term holders realize value is close to 50,000. So maybe we go down all the way to 50,000. 

But. We're close. I mean, we're at 65 right now.

All time high here was north of one hundred and twenty five thousand. So as I mentioned, I mean, even if we go to the realized price of long term holders, we maybe have 15000 dollars more downward to go. And I'm talking here about the most probable cases. 

Of course, there is a possibility that we go to zero. But, you know, after 15 years, I think this asset going to zero is the probability of that is very small. Never zero, but small.

I think in all likelihood, the history will arrive and eventually we will recover. And that scenario, which to me seems most likely is one where, you know, the downside is at this point. You know, if we're just looking at the all time high for Bitcoin, the downside is maybe, you know, one fifth what the upside is.

So that being said, I would definitely, you know, if you're interested in an asset like Bitcoin, which is very high beta, right, a lot of volatility. So if that's not your cup of tea, then definitely not advise buying it. And it's very important for you to be able to understand what it what really is your risk tolerance and your appetite for risk and not really kid yourself about that, because a lot of people like to say that they have an appetite for risk, but then when volatility hits and it's not in their favor, they end up making irrational decisions and their experience, their quality of life really deteriorates. 

And so it's something that you really have to be honest with yourself about is are these like high beta names, things that, you know, I even want to bother with, or should I just go with the less volatility, more sure thing, perhaps more limited upside, but more of a sure thing names. Bitcoin remains a very high beta asset and it's not for the sort of faint of heart. So that's something that that people really need to be honest with themselves about as if this is appropriate for them or not.

All right. So with that being said, if high beta names like Bitcoin are something that you think you can stomach and are worth the risk for you, then I do think that the downside from here is limited compared to the upside. And with regards to sort of, you know, some, I guess, hopium that people are desperately looking for at this point.

If we look at the PMI, the recent reading was actually very good. And so we gapped up from 48 to 53. And it's the first time we've been above 50 since October of 2022.

And typically an expanding PMI correlates with a appreciating Bitcoin price. And you can see that in previous cases where the PMI was below 50, we were basically treading water with regards to Bitcoin. But then when the breakout above 50 happens, the price of Bitcoin tends to appreciate in a big way. 

And so I do believe that this correlation makes sense. We've seen other correlations just not hold like the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, the correlation between Bitcoin and M2. But I think that the, you know, one thing that may have been holding Bitcoin back is the fact that the PMI has basically been depressed since October of 2022. 

And perhaps the price appreciation that we saw in Bitcoin happened despite the fact that the PMI wasn't not good shape. And it happened because, you know, we had the ETFs, the Bitcoin ETFs, we have the, you know, positive regulations with regards to crypto. We had a sort of more friendly administration, a more crypto friendly administration. 

We had institutional investors dipping their toes into crypto. And so perhaps it was this that caused Bitcoin to appear as if we were in some sort of bull market. But in reality, perhaps we were not in a bull market.

Perhaps there was, you know, simply a function of these things that I mentioned that caused Bitcoin to appear like we were. And now that the PMI is about 50 and if we're able to maintain and build on this, then it's possible that we enter the bull market when people are, you know, suspecting it the least, which is which is 2026. A lot of people are saying, oh, no, actually, the four year cycle ended up, you know, panning out exactly as was expected. 

But I think that may be that may be an illusion. It may be these other things that that ended up causing Bitcoin to act in the relatively healthy way that it has in 2025 and even in 2024. But then it was actually being held back from its true potential by the PMI being below 50. 

And now that it's above 50, perhaps it's able to break out in a much bigger way. I would not be surprised if that was, in fact, closer to the truth than those who harp on, you know, the four year cycle and the fact that, oh, well, you know, the calendar says it's been four years and therefore, Bitcoin should fall. That doesn't really make much sense to me. 

It makes a lot more sense to me that, you know, the more dollars you have chasing a scarce asset, the price will go up. And right now with manufacturing index improving and with, you know, the probabilities for a rate cut being higher than the probabilities for a rate hike and interest rates today being lower than they were a year ago. And therefore, you know, money is cheaper and quantitative tightening ending quantitative easing expected to start. 

Or at least you could consider the fact that quantitative tightening stopped is, you know, one form of quantitative easing. All of those things impacting positively the price of Bitcoin makes a lot more sense to me than simply the price of Bitcoin reacting to, you know, the calendar reading a different date. And I do believe that, you know, perhaps some of the calendar impact is sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. 

I think that that can only last you for so long. Eventually, you know, physics and the physics of the matter are going to play out. And if you have an expanding money supply, you have an expanding economy, you have accelerating growth and you have a scarce asset like Bitcoin, which has at this point a pretty solid history, then the price should go up. 

But, you know, if I know anything about the markets, it's that it typically behaves in ways that surprise investors. So we'll see to what extent this plays out. But I would not be surprised if what I'm saying is exactly true.

Now, what we can do in this time is to think productively about what are the things that people may be down about that may actually benefit from the current dynamic. And one name that I've spoken about before on this channel, which occurs to me, may do very well because of what is happening is Bitdeer, because Bitdeer has been growing the amount and this is a track of the weekly update of Bitcoin output. Bitcoin has been growing the amount of Bitcoin that they mine every week in a big way. 

So if you look just one year ago, they were mining close to 30 Bitcoin per week. And as of last week, the most recent weekly update, they mined 156 Bitcoin per week. And so they are expanding their hashrate in a very big way. 

And in fact, if you look all the way here on the left, they've actually overtaken Mara with regards to total hashrate that is under their control. And hashrate refers to basically Bitcoin mining power. And so Bitdeer is now in the lead in terms of Bitcoin mining power. 

And all of these other, like the smaller Bitcoin miners, they may end up dropping out of Bitcoin mining altogether. And this hashrate may end up going to zero, the less and less it makes sense to mine Bitcoin. And therefore, this allows, because in Bitcoin mining, one party's loss is another party's gain, because in a specified period of time, the same amount of Bitcoin is always mined. 

And so if other players are dropping out, the remaining players get a bigger and bigger piece of the pie. And so if this Bitcoin slump extends for a prolonged period, then a lot of these smaller, less efficient miners are going to end up dropping out. And the remaining winners in the space are going to have a bigger piece of the pie. 

When Bitcoin's price starts going up again, that's when they will be able to capitalize on that bigger portion of the pie that they've been able to seize during the downtime. So Bitdeer has positioned itself in a way to take full advantage of the dynamics that I just told. It may end up on the next leg up for Bitcoin being by far the largest Bitcoin miner, publicly traded Bitcoin miner, and that should command a pretty generous valuation. 

Not to mention all the other stuff that it's working on, obviously has three gigawatts of power capacity, 1.6 gigawatts of those three gigawatts are operational already. When you listen to the CEO, it does seem like he's very serious about pivoting to AI and HPC that has historically higher margins than Bitcoin mining. And they also have their Bitcoin mining rig business, which is making some of the most efficient mining rigs on the market. 

And that technology may have additional use cases beyond Bitcoin mining. And so taken all together, I like Bitdeer as a play here. Again, not for the faint of heart, very high beta, but it does seem like the surface area for luck here is pretty large.

So at the end of this presentation, what I want to say is that I can't think of a single name that we've picked for ourselves for PIF, wherein the thesis has changed because of the recent pullback in the market. The fact of the matter is that the probability of rate cuts still outweighs the probability of rate hikes. The fact of the matter is technology, specifically around AI and robotics, is creating incredible moneymaking opportunities, whether it's in AI and robotics directly or through derivative plays such as energy, which is becoming more and more scarce.

And this is going to have winners and losers, and the winners are going to do extremely well. And it's important here, someone I care about deeply called me yesterday and said, hey, are you still bullish on Bitcoin? Do you still believe in Bitcoin after the pullback? And my initial reaction is that it's very common during pullbacks for people to question their thesis about why they invested in a particular asset or a particular company. And oftentimes, they bias themselves towards saying that their thesis was wrong.

And what I would encourage is that during market pullbacks, I would encourage fighting, resisting the temptation to abandon your thesis, because that's kind of where the mind goes naturally.